From BKK Burma Meeting

[tun@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Subject: From BKK Burma Meeting

February 5, 1994

Dear fellow SCUBURS (SocCUltureBURmanS),

Arathorn here with the BurmaNet report on the show at the Foreign
Correspondent's Club of Thailand on last Wednesday night.  The FCCT
is perched atop the Dusit Thani hotel in Bangkok's Silom road area
and if you can afford it, is a nice break from the traffic, smog,
traffic, prostitutes and traffic that make Bangkok such a miserable
place to live.

Wednesday was another in a long string of "Burma nights" where the
topic of course, was Burma.  Burma nights always draw a good crowd
in Bangkok and there were about 200 crammed into the top floor
clubhouse.  Some were working journalists, many were just
spectating and at least a few were networking.  On this night, the
club rounded up a panel consisting of three journalists who had
recently been in Rangoon and one Thai business man who's also been
there looking after his investments.

The moderator of this little show was the FCCT president, Bertil
Lintner, who is better known as one of the most knowledgeable
observers of that country.  His books on Burma include "Land of
Jade" and "Outrage" which make up a big chunk of required reading
for Burma watchers.  He is also a correspondent for the Far East
Economic Review and the second worst dresser in the FCCT (you can
get away with a lot when you're good).

On the panel was Victor Mallett from the Economic Times, Dan
Robinson South East Asia Correspondent for the Voice of America, a
Japanese reporter who's name and newspaper I missed, and a Mr. M.
Kwam of the Bangkok Bank.

Vic Mallet opened the evening with a run down on the Burmese
economy, which can be summed up quickly: lots-o-foreign money but,
lots more big problems.

This is nothing like verbatim or coherent, but he said something
like this:  The economy is run by soldiers who don't know business,
but they're learning fast.  It's improved a lot in the last
couple of years but that is only a measure of how bad things got
after 88.  The government says the growth rate was 13 per cent last
year, some people say two per cent, I'm guessing six per cent but
no one knows and no statistics are believable

Trade with China is free and easy, and tourists are coming in
greater numbers.  There has been a de facto devaluation of the kyat
because the government has allowed tourists and locals to use FECs
(Foreign Exchange Certificates) that trade at something like a
market rate.  Previously, foreigners had to convert $200US into
kyat at the rate of 6 kyat to the dollar, which is only 20 times
what the kyat is really worth.  Now, Burmese citizens are almost
exclusively dealing in market rates, not official rates and the FEC
is a great bonus for travellers.  Just a hint, they're little
pieces of paper that would be QUITE EASY to copy on a color photo
copier. 

There are huge problems that remain, aside from conscientious
objections a business man might have.  The armed forces are
resented (hated) by the Burmese and a slight incident could cause
a large blowup.  Inflation is up to 30% a year and there is a large
and growing gap between rich and poor.  There is NO control of
military spending so the military buys what it wants and drives up
inflation by excessive spending.  There is a lot of corruption.

If you're a foreign business person, you might have to engage in
barter trade because in practice, you can't take kyats out so you
have to convert them into something worth money on the outside.
This has driven up the price of teak, beans and lots of other
things that can be carried out.  It is also  not altogether clear
how serious the government is about private enterprise.

Broadly speaking, the problem is like in Vietnam, where the
government is trying to open up the economy without allowing any
freedoms.  But the big difference is that unlike in Vietnam, the
regime is detested.



The next speaker was really the highlight of the evening, although
maybe goat-led-to-the-slaughter is a more apt metaphor.  Mr. M.
Kwam of the Thai Industrial Co., (which is an affiliate of the
Bangkok Bank) did not have the brains god gave an ant.  It's not so
much what he said that got him in trouble, it's where he said it.=20
If you were to look for 200 of the best informed and least SLORC-
friendly westerners in Bangkok last Wednesday night, you'd have
found a hundred and ninety of them at the FCCT.  Mr. Kwam had NO
sense of who his audience was and he started off by telling us that
the biggest problem in Myanmar was the exchange rate.  It's not
fair to blame Mr. Kwam completely for his ignorance (of the
audience at least) as Bertil was probably guilty of more than a
little malice aforethought for not cluing him in.  Mr. Kwam's
ignorance did make for a good show so Bertil should probably be
forgiven this once;-}

Here is a summary (minus the audience's audible groans at points)
of Mr. Kwam's remarks.  Again, no sense of accuracy is implied:

We buy lands in industrial estates in Thailand and then rent or
sell to foreign investors.  Business has not been good because of
political stability, etc, so we are looking for business in other
places.  Myanmar is very beautiful.  It hasn't been open for thirty
years, but in 1990 it began to open.  Because of a lack of
understanding, there is a lot of problems.  Only the older people
can understand good english and the younger people do not so there
is a lack of understanding.  There are a lot of opportunities in
Burma because nobody understands it. 

We want to buy low and sell high when everyone else jumps in.  I
have been there seven times.  When I got there, I went to see some
of the Buddhist masters and speak with them.  Burma is a very
religious country and is Buddhist like Thailand.  The thing you
don't touch in Burma is politics and the thing you don't criticize
is religion. 

At first we tried to find locations for factories but the
infrastructure is a problem, especially the lack of electricity. 

The country has a lot of lawyers, but they are more like
facilitators because there is no legal system.  They have to update
it because it is antique.  It used to be a very good British system
forty years ago.  Now the lawyers just go around and help you make
deals.


More on the good Mr. Kwam later.

The Japanese journalist spoke next and he was rather good albeit
quite pleased with himself for all the places he'd been and people
he'd interviewed.  Since we had to listen to it, its only fair that
you should also know that he's been to Myanmar several times, first
in 83 when the North Korean agent bombed Aung San's tomb.  (It was
still beautiful then, but a ghost town.)  In 1990 he covered Burma
again, travelling all around.  He also went to Manerplaw and Chen
Tawn(sp?) which is someplace 170 km from Mae Sot.  He also
approached the Myanmar border from China near Kachin state.  After
reciting his travelogue, he said that:

I was really impressed by how much the Myanmar people are
developing the country, including the SLORC generals.  There is a
great change even since 1990.  There are 150 hotels in Myanmar now
In 90, the Strand hotel was a ghost town.  Now they want me to pay
650 dollars for a room.  Many small hotels are in invested by
Singaporeans, Malaysian, etc.  There are more than 1000 applicants
for investment in Myanmar.  350 failed but 600 got approved joint
investors.  The number one investor is the US, around two billion
dollars. The second place is Thai.
(Note Bene: a western diplomat I was sitting with questioned these
figures and I've no reason to disbelieve her).

The GDP in 1988 was $20; in 1992 it was $50.  These figures, which
we cannot believe (big laugh), show everything is going well.  Debt
service is bad though and foreign reserves are low.  There are big
problems but it is seemingly successful. 

This change happened at end of April 1992.  Some diplomats think
that from 1988, to April 92 were days of Ne Win's influence and
from April 92 to now is Khin Nyunt's power.

April 92 saw a reshuffle of the leadership.  This government is
composed of former generals who are not so powerful when compared
with the military.  Politically, Khin Nyunt is 1st secretary of
slorc, but his other base is head of the Myanmar CIA.

I interviewed Khin Nyunt and the general said that they are now
that the national convention discussions should be concluded in
february.  I asked about Aung San Suu Kyi and he said we cannot
worry more about one lady than with four million people.  He said
"we are kindly taking care of her" and that he would like to deal
with this case after July 20th (the 5th anniversary of Suu Kyi's
detention)  under the existing law. (Which some took to mean that
she would be released on July 20).

The Japanese government is suggesting that aid to Myanmar would be
hopefully restarted soon but that they had some conditions: lift
martial law and free the political prisoners. 

So far you may have noticed that two of the panelists referred to
Burma/Myanmar as Myanmar and one to it as Burma.  Before going on
to the last panelist, Bertil broke in with an explanation of the
Myanmar/Burma name debate (sound familiar) and it went something
like this:

Burma and Myanmar are interchangeable names for the same place but
Myanmar is more formal.  You can use either one.  Originally,
"Burma" was the English word for the place and in the native
language, "Myanmar" was the word.  It's like "Germany" and
"Deutschland."  Now Burmans use either one but in 1989, SLORC asked
the rest of the world to call it Myanmar and explained that was
that Burma meant only Burmans while Myanmar meant every ethnic
group as well; Kachin, Karen, Wa, Lisu, Arakanise, etc.  The ethnic
groups weren't buying because they don't believe anything SLORC
says and they believe the term "Myanmar" to imply ethnic-Burmans
only.  The debate over the name was also fought out in the 30s,
when Aung San and other soon-to-be revolutionaries were looking for
a name for their organization. They had a choice between "Domyanmar
asia-yone" and "Dobahma asia-yone"/  Aung San chose the former
because he said that Burma meant everyone in the country but
Myanmar only referred to the people of the Kingdom at Mandalay.
(Dobahma asia-yone translates to "We Burmese association.")


Anyway, back to the panel.  The last speaker was Dan Robinson, from
the Voice of America.  More or less, he said this:  The USDA
rallies being held now in Burma are scary.  To put it mildly, they
are not an entirely voluntary process.  They are very similar to
what we saw in Ethiopia under the Mengistu regime.  People are
afraid to speak out on anything.  The delegates we tried to speak
to at the national convention were very hesitant to speak to us.
They said "we can only listen to the direct line."  SLORC is
modelling the government on the Indonesia, Singapore model of a
dual role of the military.  SLORC is also looking at Vietnam as a
model for changes in burma where they allow development but hold
political power.  The situation however, is different in Burma.
There is a pervasive intelligence presence so people are too afraid
to speak out.  In Vietnam, people are not so afraid.

My favorite line of the government's is when it tells the people
not to "follow the broadcast of neo-colonialist forces."  I want to
hang that on my wall.



After the VOA speaker, Bertil opened the mike up to the floor and
the first, and best questioner was a British free-lance
photographer named Philip (I forget his last name).  Philip ought
to be out of place in Thailand because he is everything the Thais
usually hate.  First, he's weird.  What hair he hasn't razored off
is in a narrow mohawk and just a fringe on the brow line.  Second,
he dresses even worse than Beril: he wears black leather and lots
of shiny metal jewelry stapled to his clothes and skin.  He's also
confrontational, blunt and arrogant. He is so far off the scale of
human behavior that the Thais seem to like him as they would an
amusing but ill-tempered zoo animal. While Philip may be weird, he
is also an excellant and courageous photographer and during the May
1992 massacres when the Thai army was machine-gunning democracy
protestors, the photos Philip took were the better than anyone
else's and he won international awards for them.

Philip's first question was to Mr. Kwam and he asked: You said the
biggest problem in Burma was the exchange rate, how do you deal
with the moral issues of investing with killers?

Kwam: We are Asian people.  You may have some questions, but we are
business men and we may be more practical.  Asians don't think so
much about human rights like foreigners do.  We try to help the
country in terms of economic growth.  To us the biggest obstacle is
the exchange rate.  How do you help people?  By punishing them?
There a lot of bad guys on the street. Do you not deal with all of
them?

The next questioner also addressed Mr. Kwam.  Aung Shwe is a
Burmese student who fled in 1988 and is eloquent in both English
and Burmese.  His brother is doing a ten-year stretch in Insein
Prison for pro-democracy activity and his mother has been
repeatedly picked up and intimidated because Aung Shwe writes
articles that get picked up by the Bangkok papers.  Aung Shwe's
comment came down to this:  I am Asian too and you people like you
[Mr.Kwam] should go to visit Insein Prison.  We don't need people
like you in Burma.

Kwam's reply: It is very good for us to hear this.  All we hear in
Burma is  "you're welcome, you're welcome".  I didn't know people
felt like this.  But if the next time you go [to Burma], and you
have no hotel to stay in, you'll know why we are there. 


The VOA reporter brought up the hypocrisy of the May 1992 pro-
democracy uprising in which a couple of hundred people died to defy
an unelected general's power grab.  His question was why is
democracy so important to Thais that they will die for it, but is
of no concern in neighboring Burma.

Most of the questions were aimed at Mr. Kwam and the best exercise
in rhetoric was another salvo by Philip.

Philip: (to Mr. Kwam):  Are you afraid for the safety of your
investments in Burma?  Are you afraid that there could be a change
of government and instability if say Aung San Suu Kyi were to be
freed.

Mr. Kwam:  Yes

Philip: So you don't want to see Aung San Suu Kyi released?

Mr. Kwam: Uh, that isn't necessarily logical.


To Mr. Kwam's credit, he displayed a fair amount of grace under
fire and even won a round of applause once for a spirited answer to
one of the attacks on his lack of character.  The audience was
clearly not on his side but he bore it well and won some respect
for, if nothing else, his ability to take a beating and not cry.


And that's the way it was (more or less).  Just a couple of other
rumors heard in passing:

s.c.b. is being picked up by some of the BBSs in Thailand, War On
Virus in Bangkok and one of the boards in Chaing Mai.  Chula's
newsreader is useless but NECTEC carries it.  If you are in
Thailand, why don't you sound off just so we know where s.c.b. is
being heard.

Bertil Lintner has a new book on the Burmese civil war coming out.
Martin Smith's tome is invaluable for picking out the players but
it's BORING.  Supposedly, Bertil's is less academic (easier to
read) and deals better with events in Northern Burma which Smith
largely missed cause he spent his time in Tennesserim and Arakan.

The US State Department's new human rights report on Burma came out
on Feb. 1.  As expected, it's scathing.  Check your local embassy
for a copy or stay tuned to s.c.b. for a summary.

Ne Win, who is in Singapore for "dental treatment" in fact has
butt-cancer and is not long for this world.

The Thais are already pressing the ethnic minorities to settle and
the agencies doing border relief expect the Thais to put pressure
on the ABSDF and other Burmese in Bangkok to get out of town soon.
If (when) this happens, look for many of  the students to seek
asylum in the US and other western countries.  They have a bunch of
(over 100) disabled students with them and there's no way they
would survive either going into the jungles or going back to SLORC.

The Thai Border Patrol seized a million baht ($40,000) worth of
medical supplies that a Norwegian relief agency was sending to the
Karen.  The reason for seizing it was pure greed (the Border Patrol
unit in question is particularly corrupt, even by Thai standards)
and if the stuff isn't released soon, it will go on the market to
line police pockets.  The Norwegian and other embassies are putting
on pressure to release the stuff because it's humanitarian aid, but
the Norwegians may have to write it off and try again.  The stuff
got seized because the stupid truck driver got lost and stopped in
at the Border Patrol to ask directions. ("Hey, do you guys know
where Manerplaw is?"  "Ya, it's over there and by the way, what's
in the truck?")

yer humble servant,

              arathorn

  --In the face of human suffering, silence is complicity,
    neutrality a crime.

                        Elie Wiesel