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What's going on up north? (r)



/* Written  5:09 am  Jun 12, 1994 by strider@xxxxxxxxxxx in igc:soc.culture.th */
/* ---------- "What's going on up north?" ---------- */

Slack,

I can't tell you much about the situation on the Thai side except that 
about 3000 Shan refugees have crossed the border.  The Thai army is 
generally being pretty good about things so far.  They are allowing the 
refugees to spend the night and then making them return the next day.  
Unfortunately, the Burmese army is grabbing everyone who can walk and 
forcing them to serve as porters so when these refugees are pushed pack, 
their fate is pretty questionable.  A large number of other refugees are 
sheltering with relatives/friends on Thai side and they are pretty much 
going unnoticed.

The latest round of fighting is over two mountains in the eastern area of 
Khun Sa's territory.  The Burmese army grabbed it from him in December 
apparently because he was making noises about independence.  Usually, 
Khun Sa avoids set piece battles but this time he seems to be up to a 
real fight.  He has about 20,000 men and as much weaponry as he could 
ever need.  SLORC has sent 20,000 troops into the area and at the moment, 
they are inflicting heavier casualties on Khun Sa because they are on the 
defensive and fighting from prepared positions.  

It is still too early to say, but SLORC MAY be serious this time about 
cutting Khun Sa down to size.  According to reports I've heard, they've 
moved 5000 tons of equipment/supplies into the area so they have the 
resources to stay for awhile.  One military observer I've talked to 
thinks that SLORC will jump for Khun Sa in a big way once the dry season 
comes.  I'm a bit more skeptical.  If they are going to do it, they will 
need more than 20,000 men.

To beat a well equipped jungle army of 20,000 men would take a lot of 
troops and probably a lot of air power.  SLORC has used aircraft last 
week to bomb Mong Kyawt but from an extremely high altitude.  The 
practical effect was nil except to kill four civilians and slightly 
damage the temple at Mong Kyawt.  It seems that SLORC pilots are 
unwilling to go in low because Khun Sa has SAM-7s in his arsenal.  If I 
had to guess, all we are going to see is a limited offensive to punish 
Khun Sa but not a serious effort to take him out.

A major offensive in Shan State carries enormous risks for SLORC.  First, 
Khun Sa might beat them.  A lot will depend on how well his troops will 
fight.  Thus far, they seem to have done pretty well.  The other major 
risk for SLORC is that a large scale offensive in Shan State could 
precipitate a general insurrection by the Shans.  Like the rest of the 
world, the Shans have looked at Khun Sa as an opium warlord.  The single 
most important reason for this is because he has avoided fighting SLORC.  
If he gets into a real shooting war with SLORC and things go well for 
him, the odds for him being seen by most Shans as a legitimate patriot go 
way up.  If he can provide weapons to them as well as inspiration, SLORCS 
problems could become much worse.

This scenario is not that farfetched.  SLORC bulldozed the old Shan
Palace at Kengtung a couple of years ago and the Shan people have rightly 
taken this as a personal insult.  They see SLORC as trying to destroy 
Shan culture.  One other thing to consider is that if Khun Sa's reports 
are to be believed, his troops have carried out small attacks in areas 
all over Shan State, not just along the border where his headquarters 
is.  If he is telling the truth, he already has a pretty long reach.  If 
he is able to harness Shan nationalism, he will be able to do a lot of 
damage to any SLORC troops in Shan State.

Regards,

 Strider