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Prospects for Burma - VOA 2 Dec



 SUU KYI PROSPECTS By DAN ROBINSON/BANGKOK 
DATE=12/2/94
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-18887
TITLE=SUU KYI PROSPECTS
BYLINE=DAN ROBINSON
DATELINE=BANGKOK

VOICED AT:02-Dec-94 8:48 AM EST (1348 UTC)

Source: Voice of America

CONTENT=

INTRO:  BURMA'S RULING MILITARY GOVERNMENT HAS RECENTLY
PLEDGED TO CONTINUE A DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION LEADER AUNG
SAN SUU KYI -- THE 1991 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LAUREATE UNDER
HOUSE ARREST SINCE 1989.  BUT AS V-O-A'S DAN ROBINSON
REPORTS, DESPITE INDICATIONS THE MILITARY MIGHT BE
CONSIDERING, OR ACTUALLY MOVING TOWARD RELEASING HER
SOMETIME NEXT YEAR, OBSERVERS SAY FREEDOM FOR AUNG 
SAN SUU KYI WOULD STILL PRESENT PROBLEMS FOR THE JUNTA IN
RANGOON.

TEXT:  SENIOR BURMESE MILITARY LEADERS HAVE SO FAR HELD TWO
ROUNDS OF DISCUSSIONS WITH AUNG SAN SUU KYI -- AT LEAST
THAT IS ALL THAT HAS BEEN PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED.
IN TALKS WITH VISITING FOREIGN AND U-N OFFICIALS -- AMONG THEM
A SENIOR U-S STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL THOMAS HUBBARD --
MILITARY OFFICIALS HAVE GIVEN ASSURANCES THAT THE DIALOGUE
WILL CONTINUE. WHAT IS  NOT  CLEAR IS WHETHER THE MILITARY
SEES ENOUGH COMING OUT OF THE CONTACTS TO JUSTIFY
RELEASING AUNG SAN SUU KYI IN JANUARY, WHEN THEORETICALLY
HER DETENTION SHOULD EXPIRE.AUNG SAN SUU KYI REMAINS
TREMENDOUSLY POPULAR AMONG ALMOST ALL SEGMENTS OF
BURMESE SOCIETY -- INCLUDING ETHNIC GROUPS, MANY OF 
WHOM HAVE SIGNED PEACE DEALS WITH THE MILITARY.BY AGREEING
TO A DIALOGUE, THE JUNTA TOOK A DRAMATIC TURN FROM 
ITS PREVIOUS POLICY OF ATTEMPTING TO ISOLATE HER.  ANALYSTS
SAY THE JUNTA REMAINS ESPECIALLY FEARFUL ABOUT THE IMPACT
HER RELEASE COULD HAVE.

// OPT //
 SINCE SHE WAS PLACED UNDER HOUSE ARREST IN 1989, AUNG 
SAN SUU KYI HAS REFUSED TO LEAVE BURMA IN RETURN FOR HER
FREEDOM. MEANWHILE, THE MILITARY HAS GONE AHEAD WITH A
CONSTITUTIONAL DRAFTING PROCESS GIVING THE ARMY A
PERMANENT AND DOMINATING ROLE IN POLITICS.

COMPLETED SECTIONS OF A NEW CONSTITUTION ARE SEEN TO HAVE
PAINTED AUNG SAN SUU KYI OUT OF ANY POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT. 
BUT NOW THAT IT HAS BEGUN A DIALOGUE, SOME ANALYSTS
BELIEVE THE JUNTA MAY HAVE HAD TO RECONSIDER SOME ROLE FOR
HER. //  END OPT//

RANGOON IS A PLACE OF INTENSE RUMORS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT
WHAT THE MILITARY MIGHT BE DISCUSSING BEHIND-THE-SCENES
REGARDING AUNG SAN SUU KYI.  BUT A NUMBER OF INTERESTING
SIGNS HAVE RECENTLYEMERGED.

A BUDDHIST MONK WHO PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN GETTING THE
MILITARY TO  ALK TO AUNG SAN SUU KYI WAS QUOTED BY JAPAN'S
KYODO NEWS AGENCY AS SAYING THE TWO SIDES APPEAR TO BE
WORKING ON AN AGREEMENT UNDER WHICH SHE COULD REMAIN IN
BURMA AFTER LEAVING HOUSE ARREST. ON THEIR RECENT VISITS TO
RANGOON, U-N OFFICIALS WERE  NOT ALLOWED TO SEE AUNG SAN
SUU KYI.  A REPORT BY SECRETARY GENERAL BOUTROS-BOUTROS
GHALI SAID THE DIALOGUE HAD  NOT  YET PRODUCED RESULTS, BUT
NOTED MILITARY ASSURANCES THAT TALKS WOULD CONTINUE. THIS
WEEK, THAILAND'S PRIME MINISTER (CHUAN LEEKPAI) TOLD BURMA'S
FOREIGN MINISTER RANGOON SHOULD RESOLVE THE ISSUE OF AUNG
SAN SUU KYI.  THE BURMESE OFFICIAL, OHN GYAW, DECLINED TO
SAY ANYTHING ABOUT A POSSIBLE RELEASE.

SOURCES IN BANGKOK SAY THAI OFFICIALS HAVE RECENTLY
EXPRESSED OPTIMISM IN MEETINGS WITH VISITING DELEGATIONS --
INCLUDING A GROUP OF AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS -- THAT AUNG SAN
SUU KYI MIGHT BE FREED.

MEANWHILE, SOURCES IN RANGOON ARE UNABLE TO CONFIRM A
REPORT IN THE REGIONAL PUBLICATION, FAR EASTERN ECONOMIC
REVIEW, SAYING AUNG SAN SUU KYI WAS ALLOWED TO MEET OTHER
DETAINED MEMBERS OF HER NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY
(N-L-D).

OBSERVERS SAY SUCH A MOVE WOULD BE HIGHLY UNUSUAL. 
WITHOUT CITING SOURCES, THE REVIEW SAID AUNG SAN SUU KYI MET
WITH N-L-D CHAIRMAN TIN OO AND PARTY SECRETARY KYI MAUNG
AT AN ARMY GUEST HOUSE IN RANGOON.

// REST OPT //

REPORTING ON HIS RECENT VISIT TO RANGOON, SPECIAL U-N
RAPPORTEUR YOZO YOKOTA SAID HE ASKED THE MILITARY FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON THE LEGAL AUTHORITY UNDER WHICH
AUNG SAN SUU KYI IS STILL KEPT UNDER HOUSE ARREST AND A
PRECISE DATE ON WHICH SHE WOULD BE RELEASED.  (SIGNED)