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Writing On The Wall......



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                    *    Writing On The Wall   *
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      The World Should Get Ready for President Aung San Suu Kyi
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	Prison bars may stall destiny for years, or even decades. But not for
ever. During the 27 years that it kept Mr. Nelson Mandela in jail, South
Africa's apartheis regime  paid a steep price. The country was wracked by
racial violence and saw its economy erode. It was an international pariah. 
Mr. Mandela, by contrast, emerged from his ordeal politically stronger and more
mature. Less than four years after his release, he was elected to head a
government of reconciliation--a brief he is carring out with remarkable aplomb
and success. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi seems destined to be the Mandela of Myanmar.
Little that Yangoon's State Law and Order Restoration Council does it likely to
change that. But SLORC can contribute substantially to making the process as
painless as possible.
	Recently, the junta seemed poised to take a big step in that
direction - by releasing Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi after more than five years of
house arrest. But SLORC squelched such rumours by abruptly announcing that
nothing would change until a new constitution was adopted. The charter has been
under discussion since 1992 and its completion still looks distant. As things
stand, its provosions regarding the Nobel Peace Prize-winner are well known:
they bar her from political office because she is married to a foreigner and
has lived abroad within the past two decades.
	Such effort is likely to be in vain. Ms. Suu kyi has demonstrated far
more than physical kinship with Aung San, her late father and independence
hero. After a cisit last month, her husband, the British academic Mr. Michael
Aris, conveyed a single message: she would never cut a secret deal with SLORC.
That precludes an agreement to leave the country, which could win her release
instantly. Her stance underscores the resolve she shares with her father to
play an instrumental role in making their nations strong, modern and humane.
Ms. Suu Kyi also retains the support of the more than 80% of Burmese who voted
in a 1990 general election for her party, the National League for Democracy.
Her stature is underpinned not only by her integrity, patriotism and commitment
to democracy, but also by her acceptability to Myanmar's fractious ethnic
groups and her international presitige.
	Ms. Suu Kyi will re-emerge on center stage whether or not SLORC
succeeds in its drive to make Myanmar prosperous> If economic reforms do bear
fruit, the experiences of neighbours in East Asia -- such as South Korea,
Taiwan and Thailand -- suggest that democracy will follow. Like Mr. Kim Young
Sam in Korea, Ms. Suu Kyi could go from being detained oppositionist to
president. On the other hand, if the generals make a mess of economy, internal
pressures could intensify to the point where Ms. Suu Kyi would be the only
person with the charisma and moral authority to save the day. Most analysts
agree that  economic reform alone will sustain the modest level of growth, but
the quantum leap won't come without political transformation. Another catalyst
for change in the years ahead will the death of Gen. Ne Win. Now 83, the
shadowy strongman ruled for 26 years and continues to exercise a powerful
influence from behind the scenes.
	Myanmar's ASEAN neighnours can play a key role. Better than anyone,
they know  how to appeal to Burmese sensibilities and help induce positive
change. ASEAN avoids confrontational and often counter productive-- rhetoric of
Western human rights groups, but members agree that SLORC regime lacks
legitimacy. After Yangoon announced that Ms. Suu Kyi's detention would be
prolonged indefinitely, chariman Suthin Nappaket of Thailand's House foreign
affairs committee proposed immediate mediation by Bangkok. By stepping up their
"constructive engagement"  of Yangoon. ASEAN countries can draw on their own
experience to help their neighbour make economic and political progress. An
increasingly stable, prosperous and open Myanmar would enhance those same
attributess throughout the region.
	Such headway would quickly bring other benefits to Myanmar as well.
Democratic power would respond with aid and trade, and international investors
would begin putting money into the country in a big way. Once Ms. Suu Kyi
become involved in government, Yangoon will be able to attract home the tens of
thounsands of educated Burmese now in exile. Their expertise is essential if
the country is to modernize.
	Even if SLORC wanted to take this route, of course, there be huge
question marks. The biggest chellenge: how the generals, who have minimal
education and even less experience in political compromise, can strike a deal
with longtime rivals and ease themselves from power without major upheaval. The
nation's restive minorities are another wild card. Yet one thing seems certain:
these tasks have to be faced one day. The longer they are put off, the more
difficult they are likely to prove.

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The above essay is the editorials in AsiaWeek magazine
issued on February 24, 1995.