Asiaweek: "The Sound of Silence"

[brelief@xxxxxxx]

--=====================_814496099==_
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"



--=====================_814496099==_
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"

ASIAWEEK
October 27, 1995

MYANMAR  -- THE SOUND OF SILENCE

Suu Kyi Prods the Generals, but Still No Dialogue

Aung San Suu Kyi is a determined woman.  Since her release
in July from six years of house arrest, she has repeatedly
asked the generals who run Myanmar to discuss the country's
political future with her.  The military junta, or State Law
and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), thinks time is on
its side.  It seems content to reap what benefits it can from
freeing one of the world's most famous political prisoners
without hurrying to meet her.  Myanmar's ambassador to
Thailand, Tin Winn, recently said that "the government
doesn't need dialogue with anybody."

Suu Kyi last week served notice that she will not be ignored. 
Her party, the National League for Democracy, reinstated
her as its secretary general. Inspired by Suu Kyi, the NLD
won 80% of the seats in the 1990 parliamentary elections,
though SLORC refused to honor the results.  The party's
central committee was forced to expel her from her post in
early 1991, and to oust her  from the party altogether later
that year.  Two other former leaders, Tin U and Kyi Maung,
were also given top posts in the party last week.  Both were
released from detention in March. Tin U will be responsible
for organizational and legal matters and Kyi Maung for
research and foreign relations.

A government election commission reportedly rejected the
NLD's new line-up.  But as of
mid-week, an assistant to Suu Kyi could not confirm that the
NLD had received notification from the commission.  The
group has the authority to discipline political parties and
prohibit any changes in their leadership.

An NLD spokesman said that the reshuffle was an internal
party matter and would stand even if the commission did not
approve it.  Suu Kyi would play a leading role in the NLD
even without a title.  Giving her the top job was a way to
help resuscitate a party that SLORC had nearly snuffed out. 
Suu Kyi has insisted that SLORC's divide - and - rule tactics
weakened the NLD, but didn't split it.  As proof, the party
retained as chairman Aung Shwe.  He had headed what the
government called the "legal" NLD, and he also represents
the party in the slow - moving National Convention, the
government - appointed body drafting the constitution. 

SLORC has few incentives to speed up the transition to
civilian rule.  Suu Kyi's release was aimed in part at placating
foreign investors and international donors who were uneasy
about working with a government that was holding a Nobel
laureate in detention.  Though Suu Kyi advised against it,
Japan has resumed limited humanitarian aid, and such
organizations as the Asian Development Bank and the
International Monetary Fund are considering granting loans
to Myanmar.

Although she has ventured outside Yangon only once, to
visit a revered monk in Karen state, Suu Kyi has done her
best to keep international pressure on SLORC.  She sent
taped messages to the Women's Forum in Hauirou, China, at
the end of August, and to a labor and human rights
conference in the Philippines in mid October.  She has met
with the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Madeleine
Albright, and with Yozo Yokota, the U.N.'s special
representative on human rights in Myanmar.

Predicting the generals' next moves is never easy.  They
could try to check the NLD with legal maneuvering.  Or they
may attempt to finesse the issue of negotiations by allowing
her access to the National Convention.  If the revitalized
NLD leadership decides to endorse the party's involvement in
the convention, SLORC would be off the hook.  But the
price of such a major concession from the NLD may be
allowing Suu Kyi some say in forming the constitution. 
SLORC postponed the next session from Oct. 24 to Nov. 28. 
The official reason was that delegates wanted to be home for
an important religious festival and the post - monsoon
farming.  More likely, the generals didn't want to resume
meeting at the inauspicious time of a solar eclipse.

The military continues to defend its role in politics by
insisting it is the only force capable of maintaining national
unity.  The National Convention has adopted this principle. 
The generals are not heading back to the barracks anytime
soon. And if they have their way, Suu Kyi will never be
president.  Several provisions in the constitution, barring
from the presidency anyone married to a foreigner or without
detailed knowledge of military, would clearly preclude her. 
Still, Suu Kyi has never said she wants the job, and the NLD
would have no difficulty fielding an appropriate candidate:
Aung Shwe, Tin U and Kyi Maung are all former senior
army officers.

But talk of an NLD presidential contender is still premature. 
The generals must first meet with Suu Kyi.  Right now, the
only thing resonating out of Myanmar is, as they say there,
the sound of one hand clapping. 




--=====================_814496099==_--