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Reuter: Democratization of Burma in



Subject: Reuter: Democratization of Burma in a Year of Freedom

 Democratization of Burma in a Year of Freedom

    RANGOON, July 7 (Reuter) - A year of freedom appears to have brought
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi no closer to her dream of ending
military rule and restoring democracy in Burma.
     But while the ruling military body, the State Law and Order
Restoration Council (SLORC), is far from getting everything its own way,
its grip on power looks as tight as ever.
     The SLORC's attempts to marginalise and discredit the hugely popular
daughter of Burma's national hero, General Aung San, have failed. Instead,
it is facing a mounting chorus of international condemnation for its
heavy-handed rule.
     Criticism of the SLORC, from Western governments in particular,
increased in May after a crackdown on Suu Kyi's party in which more than
250 members were detained.
     Condemnation intensified following the death in custody in June of Leo
Nichols, a former honorary consul for several European countries and
godfather and close friend of Suu Kyi's.
     Nichols had been sentenced to three years in prison for operating
telephones and fax machines at his home without permission.
     But although the SLORC has its difficulties, it remains firmly in
control and the likelihood of Suu Kyi and the democracy movement bringing
35 years of military rule to an end seem as remote now as ever, political
analysts said.
     "The SLORC holds all the cards, but she has the legitimacy and the
moral support, both inside and outside the country," said one diplomat.
     "But she's not going to be able to remove the SLORC. On her part, it's
a matter of keeping the world focused on the country, and on her," the
diplomat said.
     Suu Kyi emerged from six years' house arrest on July 10 last year,
unbowed and determined to restore democracy, but under no illusion the task
would be easy.
     She said talks on political reform between the ruling military and the
pro-democracy and ethnic minority opposition were the only way forward.
     "We have to choose between dialogue and utter devastation," she told
reporters the day after her release.
     But the SLORC ignored her calls for dialogue. In November, Suu Kyi
upped the stakes by pulling her National League for Democracy (NLD) out of
the government convention that is drafting the guidelines of a new,
pro-military constitution.
     The move prompted a barrage of slurs in the state-run media and
suggestions that she was a traitor acting at the behest of colonialists.
She was also warned of "annihilation."
     Undaunted, Suu Kyi pressed ahead. In May she called a meeting of her
NLD, its first full congress since its 1990 election win that the SLORC
never recognised.
     The SLORC responded with a sweeping crackdown against the NLD,
detaining more than 250 of those planning to attend the congress.
     Despite the NLD's depleted ranks, Suu Kyi went ahead with the meeting
and a revitalised, confident party emerged from the three days of talks.
     "Her greatest achievement has been to make the NLD behave like a real
party, a real opposition, with its own platform and alternative polices,"
said another diplomat.
     Then Suu Kyi again raised the stakes, announcing that the party
leadership would draw up an alternative constitution to rival the charter
being prepared by the SLORC's convention.
     The SLORC's response was unequivocal.
     It introduced a sweeping new law on June 7 that provides for up to 20
years in prison for anyone opposing its constitutional convention or
drafting their own charter.
     But with Suu Kyi and the SLORC apparently set for a showdown, both
sides moved back from the brink.
     Suu Kyi toned down criticism of the SLORC and did not bring up her
charter plans in speeches to supporters outside her home, while the
generals let her continue the weekly addresses, her only regular
communication with the public.
     "Both sides realise they are close to a situation that, if they're
really stubborn, is going to get dangerous," one diplomat said.
  jwh
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