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SLORC downfall (brain teaser)
Using Gott's ( I will get correct spelling next time) hypothesis , if
a causal observer is witnessing SLORC's existance during their
begining of the middle 50% of their left time, ie: (assumtion
of 8 years 25% mark), with 50% certainty that SLORC could last another
2.3 years to 24 years. yikes!!
If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 25% mark,
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
| | | | |
+--------+--------+--------+----------+
8 yrs 16 24 32 yrs
^ ^
| |
+-- middle 50% ---+
If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 75% mark,
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
| | | | |
+--------+--------+--------+----------+
2.6 5.2 8 10.6 yrs
^ ^
| |
+-- middle 50% ---+
Gott uses his model on Broadway shows and he was correct with
the result on much higher confident level of 95%.
One can say with 95% confident that SLORC will last another .2 years to
320 years!! ouch...
One can use the same method is get 95% confident.
Ct