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David Abel Asks...




General Abel asked in the recent press briefing, "Where did the US Embassy
get its assertion that exports of opiates are estimated to equal the total
value of legal exports?"

This estimate can be constructed by taking the estimated production of
opium in Burma (using State Dept. satellite surveys, bolstered by recent
ground surveys in which the SLORC participated), subtracting the estimated
consumption of opiates within Burma, and multiplying by the wholesale
price of opiates at exit points (tracked and occaisionally published by
the DEA).

If Gen. Abel disputes this assertion, he either believes  1) more opiates
are consumed inside Burma than estimated (perhaps true, since a tube of
heroin costs only 20 kyat, or 15 cents, about the same as a plate of rice
and curry).  or 2) the estimated production figures are too high (this
means he disputes the conclusions of satellite and other surveys), or 3)
the price at the borders is lower than what the DEA finds.

Which is it, General?