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SLORC'S LATEST DECEPTION



/* Written 14 Nov 6:00am 1996 by drunoo@xxxxxxxxxxxx in igc:reg.burma */
/* -----------------" Slorc's latest deception "------------------ */

SLORC'S LATEST DECEPTION
------------------------
The SLORC's intention for organizing recent Mob-attack on DASSK and NLD
leaders seem to be more than just to intimidate the opposition. The attack
came at a time when the international pressure is building-up on SLORC to
commence the dialogue with the NLD and to make ceasefire with Karen
National Union. There are few possible motives of SLORC in organizing such
action.

One possible motive is that the SLORC is trying to delay the dialogue with
opposition and also the ceasefire with KNU. SLORC appears to think that it
will have some excuse to postphone the dialogue if the civilian opposition
have resorted to violence in response to this attack.

The other motive is to send a confused-signal to the outside world. In
previous days, there have been some signals that the dialogue with NLD
might be possible. The recent attack on NLD send a contradictory message
that the dialogue is not on its way; implying that there are some divisions
within SLORC/ARMY about getting into the dialogue with National League for
Democracy.

It is true that there were some concerns about possible division within
SLORC and the Burmese army in 94/95. On July 94, the Burmese army attacked
Halockhani refugee camp while SLORC's minister was attending at Bangkok
ASEAN meeting. The offensive on KNU headquarters in Manerplaw on later that
year also seemed to support the claim that some factions exist within SLORC
on dealing with various issues. Around early 1995, there were some genuine
fear by pro-democracy activists about the possibility of the Burmese army
might break-up if SLORC enter into dialogue with the NLD. Consequently,
SLORC was getting some room to manoeuver to consolidate its position.

The current situation is certainly different from that of early 1995. The
personnel within Burmese army, as well as general public, have enough
exposure about the possibility of SLORC making dialogue with the Opposition
NLD and concluding ceasefire with Karen National Union. Some of the high
profile BSPP members with the leadership quality, such as U San Yu and Dr
Maung Maung, have passed away over the year; and, incidentally, depriving
the army of possible alternative leadership. As a result, there is very
little political risk for SLORC to enter dialogue with NLD. Current impasse
on political dialogue appear to have caused by few ambitious individuals
within SLORC ( & also some stubborn ones) who refusing to give in.
Therefore, there is no need to reduce the pressure that is mounting on
SLORC to initiate a dialogue with NLD and to make ceasefire with KNU.

There are certain steps that the international community should take if
the SLORC fails to resolve its problems urgently.

1. SLORC must announce a specific date for dialogue with NLD immediately;
2. Then, the SLORC must conclude ceasefire with Karen National Union.

If SLORC fails to implement above measures, it becomes clear that the SLORC
is not committed to the reconciliation with civilian opposition. Therefore,
the international community should take the following recommendations:

1. To Remove SLORC from United Nations seat: SLORC's refusal to allow the
U.N. Special Rapporteur and assistant secretary-general is a non-compliance
with U.N. General Assembly resolutions and it is in a serious breach of
U.N. Charter. The international community should take steps to remove
SLORC from U.N. seat.

2. International Community should downgrade the diplomatic ties
bilaterally. The EU's initiative for (a) withdrawing military attache from
Rangoon and (b) expelling Burmese military personnel from embassies should
be followed. Limited sanctions should also be applied by the international
community.

3. The U.N. Security Council should create the safety zone in Burma and
impose international arms embargo. The U.N. should send the peacekeeping
mission to Burma.

4. Further steps should be taken by the international community to
remove SLORC leadership from the office.

With best regards, U Ne Oo.

/* endreport */
-------------------------------------------------------------------
	ASIA: JUNTA HEAD VOWS AGAIN TO CRUSH OPPONENTS
BURMA (CARRIED EARLIER)
   RANGOON, Burma, Nov 12 AP - After an escalation of its conflict 
with the pro-democracy movement, the head of Burma's military junta 
has declared anew that "destructive elements" who try to disrupt 
the state will be crushed.
	   In a speech published today in the state press, General Than 
Shwe urged people "to annihilate internal and external destructive 
elements who are trying to disrupt the development of the country 
with the aim of getting power".
	   He did not specify any person or organisation, but was clearly 
referring to the pro-democracy party of Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel 
Peace Prize laureate.
	   On Saturday, cars carrying Aung San Suu Kyi and two other 
leaders of the National League for Democracy were attacked by a mob 
operating with evident official sanction. Gangs also roamed the 
capital's streets in an obvious attempt to intimidate her 
supporters.
	   The first official comment on the attacks, published in a column 
in the state press today, suggested they were the spontaneous 
actions of people opposed to Suu Kyi.
	   "Suu Kyi will get into trouble if she thinks that every group 
she sees is her supporters," wrote a commentator using the 
pseudonym "Byatti," or Courage.
	   "It is difficult to allege specifically who are opposed to Suu 
Kyi since Suu Kyi has given trouble to all strata of the society.
	   "Even in her party there are some who are dissatisfied with her. 
Some people living hand to mouth had often experienced hardship 
because of her."
	   The author said Suu Kyi had been trying to destabilise the 
country by advocating economic sanctions and discouraging foreign 
investment.
	   Suu Kyi has urged foreign companies and governments to consider 
carefully whether trade and aid are allowing the military 
government to carry on with repressive policies.
	   Western governments and human rights organisations accuse the 
military - which came to power in 1988 after violently suppressing 
pro-democracy demonstrations - of widespread human rights 
violations.
	   The column also warned Suu Kyi to be careful of manipulation by 
those close to her, and suggested that the foreign press was 
interested in instigating trouble.
	   Than Shwe, speaking to members of a government-sponsored mass 
organisation, said the government is working for the emergence of a 
"disciplined democratic system" appropriate for Burma, which would 
enable its people to enjoy basic necessities such as food, clothing 
and shelter.
	   He spoke yesterday at the opening of a management course for 
members of the Union Solidarity and Development Association, of 
which he is patron.
	   On Saturday night, Suu Kyi blamed members of the association for 
the attacks on the cars carrying her and her lieutenants, without 
giving her reason for doing so. She described them as "fascists" 
and compared them to gangs that Hitler used to intimidate his 
opponents in Nazi Germany.
	   Although there was no way of finding out whether the mob members 
belonged to the association, there was copious evidence that they 
acted with government approval, including witnesses' accounts that 
the mobs were trucked in and given instruction by police.
	   The association was founded in 1993 and claims a membership of 
more than five million. Critics of the government allege that civil 
servants are pressured to join the organisation.
	   AP dm