The Myanmar Dilemma

[soewin@xxxxxxx]

>From The Japan Times; 5 May 1997. (The Global Perspective)

THE MYANMAR DILEMMA

Myanmar's admission to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is a
delicate issue for the grouping. 

The real question is whether the world is ready for an ASEAN with Myanmar as
a member. It has arisen because of the hardline position against Myanmar
taken by the United States and Western Europe . . . and the likelihood of
European and American refusal to get any closer to any grouping that has
Myanmar as one of its members. 

It is perfectly in order for ASEAN to want to live up to its name of being
the grouping of all the countries of Southeast Asia. Then there is the
argument about regional economic cooperation. An enlarged ASEAN will be a
beneficiary of the Asia-Pacific region's explosive growth especially if the
ambitious proposals for economic liberalization embodied in the ASEAN Free
Trade Area are realized.

Some... say it is not in ASEAN's interests to have a rebuffed Myanmar fail
into the embrace of any great power and become a springboard for pushing its
strategic interests in Southeast Asia, a development that would have
profound implications for the region. 

On the other side of the ledger, so to speak. are arguments which cannot be
brushed aside easily. 

While the economic (and political) benefits of membership are clear for
Myanmar, what it can do for ASEAN are not immediately apparent. As it is,
individual ASEAN countries already invest in and trade with Myanmar without
the latter being a member of ASEAN. There is no reason why these activities
cannot carry on. As for the strategic or security consideration, that
remains, well, a matter of speculation.

In the end, what will tilt the balance of arguments is ASEAN's determination
not to be dictated to by the West. However it does need to be said that the
ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council's actions against its
opponents have not made matters any easier for ASEAN. While ASEAN has no
desire to dictate the pace of political change there, there was hope that
political and social accommodation in Myanmar would follow from the
grouping's accommodating attitude toward it, all attitude which carries a
political cost. The absence of reciprocity thus far is regrettable. 

It does not help that the U.S. stance means that all sides will now dig in
and not budge. ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur on May 31 are
expected to discuss the simultaneous admission of Myanmar, Cambodia and
Laos. Short of a sudden bloody turn of events in Yangon, the outcome is not
hard to guess. 

Straits Times (April 30)