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Burma's monks, students lie low in



Subject: Burma's monks, students lie low in the hot season

***Students are at home but they've got alots of ideas in their head!!!

Subject: Burma's monks, students lie low in the hot season
    By Adrian Edwards

    MANDALAY, Burma, May 8 (Reuter) - Mandalay lies quiet under
the scorching sun of central Burma's hottest and driest months
just weeks after some of the country's worst religious unrest in
years.
    As temperatures soar the Buddhist faithful head for the
shade at the temples and pagodas that dot the landscape across
the vast plains around this city.
    The monks, too, appear for now to be sitting the hot season
out. At the Mahagandhayon monastery in Amarapura, a few miles
down the Irrawaddy River, most have left for home villages to
await the arrival of the summer monsoon.
    The same mood of quiet pervades in Rangoon where major
universities remain closed following student upheaval in
December.
    But in both cities the sense of unease is tangible.
    "It's definitely getting worse," says a Western diplomat.
"The students are at home now," says a Rangoon resident, adding
ominously, "...but they've got lots of ideas in their heads."
 BURMA'S STUDENTS, MONKS REMAIN KEY TO DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT
    Burma's students and monks, in many respects, continue to
represent the conscience of this troubled nation.
    Both had key roles in the pro-democracy protests between
1988-90. Both deny links with the opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi, but both continue to play parts in the same political drama
opposite the iron-fist rule of a military junta, the State Law
and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC.
    When monks in this city went on a rampage in March attacking
Moslems and damaging mosques it was reported the trouble had
been sparked by the appearance of a crack on a highly venerated
Buddha image at the nearby Mahamuni Paya pagoda.
    Other reports said it started following rumours that a
Buddhist girl had been molested by Moslems.
    Whatever the cause the violence quickly spread to other
cities, reflecting what observers say is Burma's deep current
volatility.
    "The SLORC was lucky," said a Rangoon-based diplomat. "This
could have got out of hand."
    "There are three elements here they have to worry about, the
students, the monks and the NLD (National League for Democracy).
If any two were to combine this whole place could explode."
 MILITARY RULERS SAY SITUATION MANIPULATED BY POLITICS
    Today, few signs of the recent trouble are left. Barricades
around mosques and night curfews had been removed in most areas.
But mindful of the dangers of talking out loud, people are
unwilling to speak.
    Taxi drivers are reluctant to take foreign passengers to
some mosques. Other city residents prefer to sit on the fence.
    "You know what our government's like," says an onlooker at
one of Mandalay's main Moslem gathering places. "I don't know
you and you don't know me."
    Burma's military rulers say the unrest and other events over
the past eight months, including Washington's recent decision to
impose sanctions, are deliberate acts aimed at blocking Burma's
accession this year to the ASEAN regional bloc.
    It's an arguement which is plausible. Malaysia and
Indonesia, two dominantly Islamic countries and existing
Association of South East Asian Nation members, may well have
viewed the anti-Moslem violence with unease.
    Washington, too, has stated its opposition to Burma's
membership of the organisation. Diplomats say the United States
and other countries may find dealing with a Burma inside ASEAN
more difficult than dealing with it now.
    "If I was (Aung San) Suu Kyi, I'd be worried what might
happen after July," said one foreign analyst. "Wouldn't you?"
Burma could be admitted as early as July at ASEAN's annual
meeting.
    SLORC RANKS MAY BE SPLIT OVER ASEAN
    A further factor in the complex equation is speculation that
elements within SLORC's own upper ranks may be split over the
merits of ASEAN membership, and working against joining.
    According to some eyewitness accounts monks involved in the
recent troubles had guns or wore military boots, suggesting
those opposed to ASEAN membership may have been trying to use
the violence to their advantage.
    All in all, students, monks, military, NLD -- a group which
Western analysts say must work together if the country's ills
are to be righted -- it's a situation which has many people
worried.
    "Over the last few months there have been worrying signs
that there are some people who think that the problems can only
be resolved through violent means," said Aung San Suu Kyi at a
news conference in late April.
    "I think it's a reflection of the general malaise of Burmese
society... You cannot expect a society where there is rampant
injustice to be a happy one."
 REUTER
0107 080597 GMT