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Burma's Army Keeps Its Grip
- Subject: Burma's Army Keeps Its Grip
- From: ausgeo@xxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 22 May 1997 04:46:00
Burma's Army Keeps Its Grip
Embattled Opposition Could Be Targeted Anew After Regional Group's Meeting
By R. Jeffrey Smith
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 18 1997; Page A18
The Washington Post
RANGOON, Burma
The police captain at the first checkpoint on the road leading to the home of
1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was unyielding as he and
nearly a dozen colleagues blocked the path of a taxi and insisted that
"foreigners are not allowed to visit" her walled compound.
When an American visitor with an appointment to see Suu Kyi at her home, less
than a mile away, asked why, the captain -- who gave his name as Thein --
would only say, again and again: "Because of the order."
Thirty-five years after seizing control of this country, and seven years after
annulling democratic elections won by Suu Kyi's political party, the Burmese
military regime is accustomed to issuing orders without providing
explanations. Many citizens here -- after looking around for spies of the
government -- charge that its decisions are arbitrary, corrupt or inept and
can be carried out with lethal brutality. As a result, they say, its leaders
remain widely hated and greatly feared.
Despite the public's animosity, and the growing hostility of the Clinton
administration, however, the military's grip on power in this Southeast Asian
nation of 48 million shows no signs of slackening. In fact, the generals may
even be getting stronger due to new repressive measures instituted in the last
seven months against Suu Kyi and her supporters.
Hundreds of university students have been jailed since student protests
against government education policies and police tactics flared briefly last
December, effectively decapitating the student movement, according to several
diplomats. Universities, which have been a crucible of anti-government
sentiment in Burma since 1920, were abruptly shut that month with no date set
for reopening.
Separately, a fierce offensive by as many as 100,000 troops since February has
routed insurgent forces allied with the Karen National Union, an ethnically
based party in Karen state, east of the capital. That party, until its
repression in 1995, played a key role in opposing the military regime.
In the last year, the military junta here has persuaded a half-dozen other
ethnic minorities that controlled vast areas in northern and western Burma to
sign cease-fire agreements by promising them more autonomy and -- according to
several Western diplomats -- permitting them to cultivate and refine a
substantial portion of the opium gum that winds up on U.S. streets as heroin.
In addition, the military has jailed as many as 300 members of the National
League for Democracy, the chief opposition party and the platform for Suu
Kyi's activities, since last summer, including several of her close personal
aides.
Win Thein U, for example, was sentenced to 14 years in prison last year for
having arranged a meeting between Suu Kyi and some farmers to discuss the poor
rice harvest and for having helped an American television reporter interview a
victim of torture. Suu Kyi's press secretary, Aye Win U, also has been
imprisoned without trial.
Suu Kyi, the charismatic daughter of the architect of Burma's independence
from the British in 1948, has been blocked from making any public speeches
since November. She also has been forced to restrict her movements outside the
compound since hundreds of men in civilian garb were allowed to pass through a
government cordon that month to attack her motorcade, smash its windows and
beat up many of her supporters. No arrests were made in the attack.
Largely because of U.S. government complaints about the regime, some visiting
Americans are subjected to extraordinary scrutiny by plainclothes men who ask
where they are going and whom they represent -- at the airport, on the street
and in hotel lobbies. Photographs are taken of those who try to see Suu Kyi,
drivers are questioned, and those seen engaging in conversation with an
American sometimes are subjected to more detailed police interrogation.
Interviews with dozens of people during a week of traveling in Burma suggested
that public discontent is heightened by the country's economic failures. The
government's statistics indicate the economy's growth rate has been falling
steadily since changes were introduced in 1992 to move the country away from
socialism toward a more market-oriented system.
Inflation exceeds 30 percent, defense expenditures reportedly consume as much
as 50 percent of the budget, and corruption and inefficiency are rife at
hundreds of large state-owned corporations or private firms controlled by
senior military officers. Without striking a deal with such a firm, or handing
over at least a 5 percent commission to a uniformed officer, it is virtually
impossible to invest here, according to a half-dozen foreign businessmen.
Conditions outside this capital are stark. "They are basically losing a
generation," said a diplomat. "Their infant mortality and life expectancy
rates are as bad as you might find in the worst nations of Africa."
But the armed forces have prospered since 1988, when the State Law and Order
Restoration Council was formed to bring military officials into a more direct
governing role. The number of troops, then 186,000, has doubled. Everywhere,
the council's facilities are the most modern and well tended, including an
elaborate museum here with displays touting achievements of each of the
country's regional military commanders.
To stem a grave shortage of foreign currency and build up its domestic
manufacturing industry, the government last summer banned all imports of
nonessential goods -- creating what several businessmen described as a brisk
under-the-counter trade.
But the measure did little to promote the creation of factories in this
overwhelmingly agricultural nation, with the result that few up-to-date
consumer goods are on display. Only a few construction cranes dot the skyline
of the capital, a city of 3 million to 4 million people with a decrepit, faded
air that contrasts sharply with the modern bustle of neighboring Asian
capitals.
The Clinton administration last month banned most American investment in Burma
because of the government's failure to thwart the drug trade. But with few
American goods in evidence -- other than Coke, Pepsi, Budweiser beer, and
Lucky Strike and Salem cigarettes -- and few joint ventures with American
firms outside the oil and gas sector, no one believes the sanctions will cause
much immediate harm to the Burmese economy.
Many do say the publicity Washington's action has generated will discourage
some foreign firms that are subject to consumer boycotts at home from
investing here, and may further discourage foreign tourism. Since the U.S.
sanctions announcement, the value of the local currency has fallen nearly 8
percent against the dollar on the black market.
"The sanctions are good, but they are not enough," said a university student,
who asked that his name be withheld because his family has been harassed for
advocating democracy. He complained that other nations have not put similar
pressure on the regime, a view echoed here by others interviewed on the
street.
But many diplomats say that activists here are naive, and that there is little
reason to expect the regime will substantially alter its hard-line policies
under foreign pressure. "Too many generals are making too much money," said
one envoy.
There appears to be a consensus among Western diplomats here that as bad as
Suu Kyi's personal situation is now, it may become even more grim after a
decision on Burmese membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,
a regional trading group that could formally decide the issue as early as
July. Many diplomats see the military's recent actions as having been
relatively restrained by a desire to avoid embarrassing its ASEAN neighbors on
the eve of the vote.
"If they get in, they will likely lock her up again," a senior diplomat said.