BURMA'S ADMISSION TO ASEAN

[moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

DATE=7/7/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-36899
TITLE=BURMA'S ADMISSION TO ASEAN
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:   WHILE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON NATO'S 
DECISION TO INVITE EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES TO JOIN THE WESTERN
ALLIANCE, A CONTROVERSY LINGERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD 
OVER THE DECISION TO ADMIT THREE NEW MEMBERS TO THE RANKS OF AN 
ASIAN REGIONAL GROUP.  V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS ON THE 
DEBATE OVER THE INCLUSION OF BURMA, CAMBODIA AND LAOS IN THE 
ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS.  

TEXT:   FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN 
NATIONS DECIDED IN LATE MAY TO FORMALLY ADMIT BURMA, CAMBODIA AND
LAOS WHEN ASEAN HOLDS ITS ANNUAL MINISTERIAL MEETING THIS MONTH 
IN KUALA LUMPUR (7/21-29).  THE DECISION CAME DESPITE QUESTIONS 
ABOUT ALL THREE COUNTRIES' ECONOMIC READINESS, POLITICAL 
INSTABILITY IN CAMBODIA, AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN BURMA.  

THE DECISION TO ADMIT CAMBODIA HAS COME UNDER NEW SCRUTINY AFTER 
THE LATEST OUTBREAK IN FIGHTING BETWEEN TWO RIVAL FACTIONS, EACH 
LOYAL TO A DIFFERENT PRIME MINISTER.  SOME ASEAN MEMBERS ARE 
CALLING FOR CAMBODIA'S ADMISSION TO BE RECONSIDERED. 

THE DECISION TO WELCOME BURMA INTO ASEAN HAS MET WITH VOCAL 
CRITICISM, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UNITED STATES.  WASHINGTON URGED 
THAT ASEAN EXCLUDE BURMA BECAUSE OF RANGOON'S SUPPRESSION OF THE 
PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT AND OTHER HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES.  

ERNEST BOWER, PRESIDENT OF THE U-S/ASEAN BUSINESS COUNCIL,  
DISMISSES QUESTIONS ABOUT BURMA'S ECONOMIC READINESS TO JOIN 
ASEAN.  HE SAYS A TEAM OF ASEAN OFFICIALS HAS DETERMINED THAT 
BURMA IS THE MOST PREPARED OF THE THREE NEW MEMBERS, MORE SO THAN
VIETNAM WAS -- IN TERMS OF LEGAL STRUCTURE AND TARIFF SITUATION 
-- WHEN HANOI WAS ADMITTED TO ASEAN LAST YEAR. 

SHORTLY BEFORE THE ASEAN DECISION TO ADMIT RANGOON, THE U-S 
GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED NEW ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST BURMA.  SOME 
OBSERVERS SAY THE U-S ACTION MAY HAVE CAUSED ASEAN MEMBERS TO 
RALLY IN SUPPORT OF BURMA.  MR. BOWER SAYS HE DOES NOT THINK 
WASHINGTON WORKED CLOSELY ENOUGH WITH ASEAN BEFORE DECIDING TO 
BAN NEW U-S CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN BURMA.

                         // BOWER ACT //

         "I DO THINK IT STRAINS U-S-ASEAN RELATIONS.  AND I THINK
         FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR POINT OF VIEW IT STRAINS 
         RELATIONS IN THIS SENSE THAT AMERICAN COMPANIES NOW ARE 
         SEEN AS UNRELIABLE PARTNERS WHEN THEY PURSUE MAJOR 
         PROJECTS OR LARGE PROCUREMENTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, 
         BECAUSE ANY COUNTRY THERE DOESN'T KNOW WHEN THE NEXT 
         SANCTION BILL IS GOING TO BE POINTED AT THEM."

                          // END ACT //

JAMES CLAD, PROFESSOR OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES AT GEORGETOWN 
UNIVERSITY, SAYS THE OUTSPOKEN U-S OPPOSITION TO BURMA'S 
INCLUSION IN ASEAN LED TO A PUBLIC RELATIONS DEFEAT FOR 
WASHINGTON. 

                         // CLAD ACT //

         // OPT // "IF WE CHOOSE TO SPEAK ABOUT IT PUBLICLY, ALL 
         WE DO IS, IN A SENSE, LEAD WITH OUR JAW, INVITE A PUBLIC
         DEFEAT OF OUR POSITION AND, I THINK, NOT GET VERY FAR. 
         // END OPT //  I THINK THE BETTER THING IS TO WORK 
         QUIETLY WITH THE SOUTHEAST ASIANS AND ACCEPT THAT BURMA,
         FOR STRATEGIC REASONS, NEEDS TO BE IN, AND THEN WORK 
         QUIETLY TO ENSURE THAT THE REGIME THERE UNDERSTANDS THAT
         IN LOTS OF LITTLE DAILY WAYS THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE 
         ABLE TO WORK WITH THE SOUTHEAST ASIANS UNLESS THEY 
         IMPROVE THEIR BEHAVIOR."

                          // END ACT //

// OPT // U-S OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED REGRET THAT ASEAN DECIDED 
TO GO AHEAD WITH BURMA'S MEMBERSHIP.  THEY SAY THEY HOPE ASEAN 
MEMBERS WILL PRESS THE BURMESE GOVERNMENT TO STOP ACTIVITIES THAT
DESTABILIZE THE REGION -- SUCH AS PRODUCING REFUGEE FLOWS AND 
ENCOURAGING NARCOTICS TRAFFICKING. // END OPT // 

JAMES GUYOT, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT CITY UNIVERSITY OF
NEW YORK, SAYS ASEAN MEMBERSHIP WILL GIVE DOMESTIC AND 
INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY TO BURMA'S GOVERNMENT, CALLED THE SLORC,
THE STATE LAW AND ORDER RESTORATION COUNCIL.  HOWEVER, PROFESSOR 
GUYOT DOES NOT BELIEVE THAT ASEAN WILL HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE
SLORC'S POLICIES. 

                      //  OPT GUYOT ACT //

         "BURMA HAS ALWAYS HAD A VERY INDEPENDENT STANCE.  AND IN
         THE MANEUVERING UP TO THE JOINING OF ASEAN, THERE WERE 
         VARIOUS APPARENT PRESSURES PUT ON BURMA, BUT BURMA DID 
         NOT RESPOND TO THESE PRESSURES IN ANY CHANGE OF POLICY 
         IN ORDER TO GET IN.  SO, I DON'T THINK THERE'S MUCH 
         EXPECTATION THAT BURMA WOULD RESPOND IN ANY WAY ONCE IT 
         IS ALREADY IN."

                        // END OPT ACT //

MR. GUYOT SAYS BURMA'S MEMBERSHIP IN ASEAN IS GOING TO PRESENT 
SOME DIFFICULTIES FOR U-S OFFICIALS, WHO TRY NOT TO HAVE ANY 
DIRECT DEALINGS WITH SLORC OFFICIALS.  BUT HE SAYS WASHINGTON HAS
BEEN A STRONG SUPPORTER OF ASEAN FOR 30 YEARS, AND HE IS 
CONFIDENT THAT RELATIONSHIP IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED. (SIGNED)

NEB/SMN/EH