ASEAN Copes With the Rise of China

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ASEAN Copes With the Rise of China
By C. Raja Mohan

The Hindu(19/09/97)

SINGPORE, Sept. 18: As the nations of South East Asia consider their
long-term regional security environment, China looms large. Coping with
the rise of China as a great power is  
Undoubtedly the most important foreign policy challenges facing the nine
member grouping of ASEAN. The strategy of the ASEAN is to engage Beijing
in a comprehensive manner across all fronts, promote a steady
integration of China into the regional, economic and political
structures, and work for an effective balance among the key powers of
the region China, Japan and the United States. In the recent year, the
interaction between China and the ASEAN has grown by leaps and bounds.
On the economic front, annual trade turnover has shot beyond $ 25
billions ASEAN now accounts for 7 percent of China's trade and China
takes about 5 percent of the ASEAN's.

The ASEAN had become a major source of foreign investment in China. By
early 1996, The Chinese Government had approved nearly 11,000 ASEAN
country-invested projects adding up to $ 26.4 billions. China investment
in the ASEAN is relatively small, but is growing at a steady pace. The
ASEAN has sustained a high-level political interaction with Beijing,
that will be capped later this year by an ASEAN- China summit meeting.
The ASEAN has also actively encouraged the Chinese participation in all
the regional economic and security-related organisations, betting that
China's interaction into these structures provides the best guarantee of
peace with Beijing. While the density and character of the Sino-ASEAN
cooperation is impressive and the ASEAN is committed to deep engagement
of China, there is a strong belief in the region that an effective
balance of power is essential mange the rise of China.

Together, the South East Asian nations account for nearly 500 million
people, and their economic weight in the international system will
continue to grow not with standing recent hiccups likes the region-wide
currency crisis. Intra-ASEAN political cooperation has steadily expanded
over being to balance China all by itself. There is strong support in
the region for continued American military presence in Asia-Pacific, and
most of the ASEAN countries have agreements to provide the U.S. Seventh
Fleet and associated military forces regular access to bases and
facilities in the region. At the same time, however, there is anxiety
here that the U.S. and China are drifting towards a confrontation. The
analysts here are opposed to any policy of "containing" China, and
believe that stability in the Sino-U.S. relations is essential for
preserving peace in the region.

The Senior Minister of Singapore, and the most articulate exponent of
balance of power in Asia, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, put it recently: "If the
U.S. joins issue with China over Taiwan or Tibet, of Hong Kong, it may
not find many supporters in East Asia. While nearly all Asian country
wants to challenge China on issues falling clearly within China's
internal affairs of territorial sovereignty." While urging moderation
from Washington on the issue of Taiwan, Mr. Lee calls on Beijing to
demonstrate restraint on the issue of Spratly Islands at the heart of a
long-standing maritime territorial dispute between China and many states
of the ASEAN. Conflicting claims to these islands in South China Sea
represent the most salient security issue in the relations between China
and the ASEAN. Some South East Asia analysts are optimistic that China
can be persuaded to see that it is in its own broader interest to work
with the ASEAN in an incremental effort to reduce tensions in the
Spratlys, find common ground and preserve status quo. Others,
apprehensive of a two-track approach in Beijing, point to periodic
Chinese assertiveness over territorial disputes, enhanced capabilities
of Chinese navel and airforces, and the growing sense of nationalism in
China.

The ASEAN would like to see a resolution of the issue through collective
bargaining with China. In an important gesture, China has agreed to
discuss the issue with the ASEAN as a whole, but is still reluctant to
negotiate with the organisation. Mr. Lee warns Beijing that as its power
grows, there will be a "rising tide of apprehension among its neighbors,
which China is becoming too big for each of them to handle individually.
They may therefore group together to better withstand the Chinese
pressure on bilateral disputes". He adds that " the present nine
countries of ASEAN do not have a common enemy to united them and may not
have one, if China is prudent and tactful. Cohesion in the ASEAN has
certainly grown in the recent years. But they are far from having a
common approach to China, let alone creating a military alliance to
manage their external challenges. Individual ASEAN countries have
differences over their policies towards China.

Vietnam that fought a border war with China in 1979 is very wary of its
northern neighbor. But Thailand, Laos and Myanmar have developed strong
special political relations with China. While there is strong imperative
for the ASEAN to untie, there may be enough opportunities for China to "
Finlandise" some of its smaller neighbors within the ASEAN. This
complexity in the ASEAN's relations with China reinforces the importance
of other great powers, in particular the United States, in managing the
balance-of-power in Asia. That leaves the region, according to Mr. Lee,
torn between two strong pulls: " The need to retain American presence,
and the need to develop a viable long-term relationship with a huge
neighbor, China.