The year that was: Burma's year end

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The Nation (3rd January 1998)
Editorial & Opinion 


The year that was: Burma's year ends as it started -- in chains

Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi confided to her aides early
last year that 1997 would be a year of triumph for the country's
democracy movement. ''There will be a change,'' she said, meaning that
the military, who have ruled the country for almost 10 years, would be
gone. 

To some extent, she was right. The ruling junta was dissolved in
November, when the self-appointed military government, the State Law and
Order Restoration Council, was replaced by the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC). 

Many former Slorc ministers were given inactive positions, forced to
retire or join the newly-established Advisory Board. But the Board was
dissolved, and at least six former ministers were placed under
investigation for corruption. 

In another reshuffle, which took place recently, eight SPDC ministers
were moved, including Brig Gen David Abel, who as minister for National
Planning and Economic Development had been playing a key role in
attracting foreign investment to Burma since 1989. 

The second shake-up was aimed at cleaning up the junta's image and also
at attracting more foreign investment, say some analysts in Rangoon and
in Bangkok. Than Aung, former minister for co-operatives, and Win Sein,
former minister for rail transportation, were kicked upstairs. After
former trade minister Tun Kyi and former tourism minister Kyaw Ba, the
two were named most corrupt ministers. 

Tun Kyi's assets are believed frozen, but so far, no drastic action has
been taken against the former ministers. Burma watchers felt the recent
reshuffle was simply cosmetic, just to resolve the junta's internal
conflicts. 

Many local businessmen in Rangoon and Mandalay expressed frustration over
the recent reshuffle. ''We are very confused. Our previous deals [with
ministers] are gone. We have to start again.'' 

According to a Rangoon-based analyst, another reshuffle is possible. ''At
least two more big fish need to be caught. One could be Mayor U Ko Lay,''
he said. 

In any case, is no one can save Burma's economy. Social unrest, lack of
confidence and internal conflict have eroded the foreign investment
climate, which has also been seriously damaged by the US ban on new
investment and by consumer-led boycotts in the West. 

The Burmese currency, the kyat, has dropped in value rapidly, with one US
dollar now equivalent to over 300 kyat (it went down to 400 kyat
recently), although the official rate remains six to the dollar. 

Analysts said the regime's unlimited note printing, money laundering from
the drug trade and the uncontrollable circulation of counterfeit money
have led to the serious instability of the kyat. 

Moreover, the country is experiencing a second consecutive year of heavy
damage to its rice crop from the current flooding in Mon State, Irrawaddy
division, Arakan State, Karen State and Pegu regions. Although the
shortage is not yet acute, local rice prices are rising, and exports will
be limited to amounts far below the military government's ambitious
targets. 

Repressive rule 

Although the junta's new name is more pleasant than the former one,
political opposition in Burma remains suppressed. The SPDC continues to
tighten its screws on the democracy movement. 

At the same time, the National League for Democracy party continues to be
marginalised. Party meetings have been banned or harassed with threats,
arrests and persecution of party members and supporters. 

Over 1,000 political prisoners remain incarcerated in jails. Some senior
NLD members were given lengthy sentences in November. Recently, NLD
members in the countryside were forced to resign from the party. The
junta also apprehended a landlord who agreed to rent an office to Suu
Kyi's political party. The party leaders are not allowed to see foreign
press, and phone lines have been cut off for years. 

Shortly after the SPDC delegation led by Senior Gen Than Shwe attended
the Asean informal summit in Malaysia, some senior NLD members were
invited to meet officials in Rangoon. At the meeting, the junta warned
the NLD to stop holding mass gatherings or risk losing meaningful
dialogue. 

They were told to refrain from accusations and protests against the
government's security measures. ''If they keep doing this, the chances of
dialogue and national reconciliation, which the NLD has been talking
about, would go further away,'' the official newspaper said. 

But NLD vice chairman Tin Oo has a different version. ''I consider it
merely a scolding. They accused us of disrupting peace by issuing
announcements -- but why can't we say that our men are being arrested and
sentenced without defence?'' he said. 

Indeed, with or without official approval, Suu Kyi and NLD are determined
to celebrate Burma's 50th anniversary of independence on Jan 4, when many
expect ''the Lady'' to hold a public gathering. 

''We regained our independence [from the British], but Burma isn't freed
from the military dictatorship,'' said student activist Win Min. Like Win
Min, many activists in and out of Burma warned if the SPDC cannot resolve
the current political and economic crisis, the people may take to the
streets again as they did in 1988. 

However, no one can guarantee that any popular uprising will solve
Burma's decades-old problems. But if they have no alternative, the
Burmese will be forced to take to the streets to challenge the junta. 

There is a climate of fear in the country with the new junta having no
qualms about putting down dissent. 

Indeed, political deadlock and instability won't help to attract more
foreign investment or overseas development aid. 

''Political dialogue is possible if the opposition party gets weaker and
weaker,'' a local veteran journalist said, adding that genuine political
dialogue can turn Burma into a peaceful and developed nation. 

But for the generals, the truth is bitter, and they refuse to swallow it.
Power has made them blind and deaf. 

Aung Zaw is a freelance writer.