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article in Nation 03/12/97
Editorial & Opinion
The year that was:
Burma's year ends as it
started -- in chains
Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi confided to her aides early last year that
1997 would be a year of triumph for the
country's democracy movement. ''There will
be a change,'' she said, meaning that the
military, who have ruled the country for
almost 10 years, would be gone.
To some extent, she was right. The ruling
junta was dissolved in November, when the
self-appointed military government, the
State Law and Order Restoration Council,
was replaced by the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC).
Many former Slorc ministers were given
inactive positions, forced to retire or join the
newly-established Advisory Board. But the
Board was dissolved, and at least six
former ministers were placed under
investigation for corruption.
In another reshuffle, which took place
recently, eight SPDC ministers were
moved, including Brig Gen David Abel, who
as minister for National Planning and
Economic Development had been playing
a key role in attracting foreign investment to
Burma since 1989.
The second shake-up was aimed at
cleaning up the junta's image and also at
attracting more foreign investment, say
some analysts in Rangoon and in Bangkok.
Than Aung, former minister for
co-operatives, and Win Sein, former
minister for rail transportation, were kicked
upstairs. After former trade minister Tun Kyi
and former tourism minister Kyaw Ba, the
two were named most corrupt ministers.
Tun Kyi's assets are believed frozen, but so
far, no drastic action has been taken
against the former ministers. Burma
watchers felt the recent reshuffle was simply
cosmetic, just to resolve the junta's internal
conflicts.
Many local businessmen in Rangoon and
Mandalay expressed frustration over the
recent reshuffle. ''We are very confused.
Our previous deals [with ministers] are
gone. We have to start again.''
According to a Rangoon-based analyst,
another reshuffle is possible. ''At least two
more big fish need to be caught. One could
be Mayor U Ko Lay,'' he said.
In any case, is no one can save Burma's
economy. Social unrest, lack of confidence
and internal conflict have eroded the foreign
investment climate, which has also been
seriously damaged by the US ban on new
investment and by consumer-led boycotts in
the West.
The Burmese currency, the kyat, has
dropped in value rapidly, with one US dollar
now equivalent to over 300 kyat (it went
down to 400 kyat recently), although the
official rate remains six to the dollar.
Analysts said the regime's unlimited note
printing, money laundering from the drug
trade and the uncontrollable circulation of
counterfeit money have led to the serious
instability of the kyat.
Moreover, the country is experiencing a
second consecutive year of heavy damage
to its rice crop from the current flooding in
Mon State, Irrawaddy division, Arakan
State, Karen State and Pegu regions.
Although the shortage is not yet acute, local
rice prices are rising, and exports will be
limited to amounts far below the military
government's ambitious targets.
Repressive rule
Although the junta's new name is more
pleasant than the former one, political
opposition in Burma remains suppressed.
The SPDC continues to tighten its screws
on the democracy movement.
At the same time, the National League for
Democracy party continues to be
marginalised. Party meetings have been
banned or harassed with threats, arrests
and persecution of party members and
supporters.
Over 1,000 political prisoners remain
incarcerated in jails. Some senior NLD
members were given lengthy sentences in
November. Recently, NLD members in the
countryside were forced to resign from the
party. The junta also apprehended a
landlord who agreed to rent an office to Suu
Kyi's political party. The party leaders are
not allowed to see foreign press, and
phone lines have been cut off for years.
Shortly after the SPDC delegation led by
Senior Gen Than Shwe attended the Asean
informal summit in Malaysia, some senior
NLD members were invited to meet
officials in Rangoon. At the meeting, the
junta warned the NLD to stop holding mass
gatherings or risk losing meaningful
dialogue.
They were told to refrain from accusations
and protests against the government's
security measures. ''If they keep doing this,
the chances of dialogue and national
reconciliation, which the NLD has been
talking about, would go further away,'' the
official newspaper said.
But NLD vice chairman Tin Oo has a
different version. ''I consider it merely a
scolding. They accused us of disrupting
peace by issuing announcements -- but why
can't we say that our men are being
arrested and sentenced without defence?''
he said.
Indeed, with or without official approval, Suu
Kyi and NLD are determined to celebrate
Burma's 50th anniversary of independence
on Jan 4, when many expect ''the Lady'' to
hold a public gathering.
''We regained our independence [from the
British], but Burma isn't freed from the
military dictatorship,'' said student activist
Win Min. Like Win Min, many activists in
and out of Burma warned if the SPDC
cannot resolve the current political and
economic crisis, the people may take to the
streets again as they did in 1988.
However, no one can guarantee that any
popular uprising will solve Burma's
decades-old problems. But if they have no
alternative, the Burmese will be forced to
take to the streets to challenge the junta.
There is a climate of fear in the country with
the new junta having no qualms about
putting down dissent.
Indeed, political deadlock and instability
won't help to attract more foreign
investment or overseas development aid.
''Political dialogue is possible if the
opposition party gets weaker and weaker,''
a local veteran journalist said, adding that
genuine political dialogue can turn Burma
into a peaceful and developed nation.
But for the generals, the truth is bitter, and
they refuse to swallow it. Power has made
them blind and deaf.
Aung Zaw is a freelance writer.