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31/1/98:EFFORTS NEEDED TO STEP-UP P



/* Written Sat 31 Jan 11:00am 1998 by drunoo@xxxxxxxxxxxx in igc:reg.burma */
/* --------------" Renewed Pressures are needed "----------- */

RENEWED PRESSURES ARE NEEDED ON BURMA
-------------------------------------
Since the time Burmese military junta changed its name in
November 1997 and, particularly, after the visit of Assistant
Secretary-General Mr de Soto to Rangoon, there has not been any
sign of the SPDC/SLORC moving towards reconciliation and
dialogue with the opposition NLD. On a positive note, there is
no indication of SPDC/SLORC stepping-up pressure on the civilian
opposition recently. Nonetheless, practically doing nothing on
the part of SPDC/SLORC towards reconciliation must be considered
as a delaying tactic. The international community, therefore,
should exert more pressure on SPDC/SLORC.

Because the SPDC/SLORC is now in a more politically insecured
position, the pressures exerted on it by international community
will force Burma into the dangerous phase. It therefore, on our
part, is important to properly inform SPDC/SLORC about the measures
that may be taken as well as of the possible consequences to
that measures.

URGING PRESSURE FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN
--------------------------------------------
As we can see from Burma Economic Data, the SPDC/SLORC foreign
exchange reserve are very low. SPDC/SLORC, since mid-1996, have
only enough FE for import of 1.2 months (total FE of 3.5 month
amount is usually considered safe level). This appears to be as a
result of the collapse of government's rice export programme
(1-million tonnes in 1994/95, down to 400,000 tonnes in 95/96
and fewer than 200,000 tonnes in 1996/97). SPDC/SLORC also fail
to reach its target of 500,000 tourists in VMY-1996: only 37%
(184,281 tourists) turned up till June 1997. In order to solve
its problem of depleating FE, SPDC/SLORC resorted to exporting
more Fish & fish-products. Recent price hike on fish and shrimp
in Rangoon seems to be the result (see EIU reports).

The Japanese Government has suspended ODA to Burma since 1988.
Especially in last year, Japan has not been failing to push
SPDC/SLORC towards dialogue and reconciliation with opposition.
Sources reported in June 1997 the Japanese envoy, Hiroshi
Hirabayashi, made clear to SLORC that Japan would not resume
lending to Burma until a dialogue had begun. Again in August
1997, Japan's foreign state secretary, Masahiko Komura, said
that Japan will froze all aid (appears to except humanitarian
relief aid) to Burma including funds for $212 million airport
extension and will not resume lending to Burma. [So far as the
Japanese government is concerned, it appears to be doing what it
can to help Burma situation. However, our Burma democracy
campaigners  don't seems to have much influence on any other
Japanese academics or business concerns.]

Nevertheless, the Government of Japan has given consession (debt
relief program) of $17 million last year **. We can ask the Prime
Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to cancel the debt relief program to
Burma.[** nb: it is not sure whether this $17 million may
include all payments for principal+interest to Japan because
Burma owe $3.1bn to Japan. Total payment may have to be higher.]

Another action that the Japanese Government can take concerns
with some of Japan's companies. Last July, the Mitsui company
had agreed to guarantee a $150m loan to Burmese government, to be
channelled through the Bank of Tokyo. Mitsui has contract with
Burmese government to supply oil to Burma. The other two
corporations which supply oil to Burma are Marubeni of Japan and
the Petroleum Authority of Thailand(PTT). We can urge those
companies, through their respective governments, not to give
credit to the SPDC/SLORC.

We must also step up our efforts to take other necessary
measures in due course of time.

With best regards, U Ne Oo.

/* Endreport */