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ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE RELATIONS-G



ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE RELATIONS 

Gas pipeline will stress closer interdependence

                 The Yadana gas pipline is the most
                 tangible example of the constructive
                 engagement policy adopted towards
                 Burma.

                 NUSSARA SAWATSAWANG -  Bangkok Post

                 The scheduled delivery of Burmese offshore natural gas
                 to Thailand in July highlights the economic
                 interdependence expected to become increasingly
                 important to relations between Thailand and Burma in
                 1998 and beyond.

                 Despite opposition from environmentalists and human
                 rights advocates, the Thai government maintains that
                 the import of what is the cleanest and cheapest energy
                 source will serve Thailand's long-term need for
                 industrialisation.

                 For the Burmese military junta in Rangoon, which
                 remains isolated internationally for human rights
abuses
                 and its failure to democratise, the gas pipeline is
                 emerging as its main apparent source of income.

                 Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan has expressed hope
                 that economic relations will turn from burden into
                 opportunity through the sharing of borders between the
                 two countries, and encourage an "internal change"
                 within Burma as well.

                 "In many countries, conflicts are gradually reduced
after
                 economic cooperation. The internal change is also
                 accelerated more quickly and easily when trade and
                 investment opportunity is open... We [Thailand] hope
                 this would also happen," he said.

                 Cooperating with neighbouring countries will help
                 Thailand save $5-6 billion (230-276 billion baht)
annually
                 on energy bills, added the man who served as deputy
                 foreign minister in the previous Chuan Leekpai
                 government which set the policy in late 1993 to import
                 natural gas from Burma.

                 Thailand is committed to a 30-year contract with the
                 Yadana consortium under which the Petroleum Authority
                 of Thailand will buy an average of 525 million cubic
feet
                 of gas per day and pay a daily rate of about 41 million
                 baht.

                 Burma, which will use some 105 million cubic feet of
the
                 gas daily, is expected to earn about $150 million
(about
                 6.9 billion baht) annually after sharing expense and
                 capital recovery, a process expected to continue
through
                 the year 2001-2002. The French oil company Total has
                 a 31.24 percent in the consortium, Unocal of America
                 28.26 percent, PTT Exploration and Production Plc 25.5
                 percent, and Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (Moge) 15
                 percent.

                 In other follow-up projects, the PTT is committed in
the
                 year 2000 to start taking delivery of natural gas from
the
                 nearby Yetagun field, which is developed by a
                 consortium led by the US oil company Texaco.

                 Following the signing of a memorandum of
                 understanding in July for Thailand to purchase 1,500
                 megawatts of power from Burma in the next decade, the
                 Thai power firm MDX has won permission from the
                 Burmese government to conduct an 18-month feasibility
                 study on the construction of hydro-power plants on the
                 Salween River.

                 With the $1 billion (46 billion baht) Yadana gas
pipeline
                 project now 70 percent complete, the PTT is scheduled
                 to begin taking delivery of natural gas from Burma on
                 July 1 at the Ratchaburi power station.

                 Thai environmentalists and the Burmese opposition do
                 not look forward to the event. The environmentalists
                 have been demanding the rerouting of a 50-km segment
                 of the 260-km pipeline that lies in the Huay Kayeng
                 national park reserve.

                 But the PTT maintains that it has done its best to
                 minimise the impact, such as reducing the width of its
                 development area from 20 to 12 metres and preparing a
                 rehabilitation plan after the project's completion.

                 Environmentalists add that the adverse impact of
                 building a transmission line for future
power-generating
                 schemes through many watershed areas along the
                 Thai-Burmese border is expected to be far greater. 

                 Unlike Thai people who enjoy freedom of expression, a
                 lot of Burmese cannot voice their grievances from
forced
                 relocation for economic ventures in the south,
including
                 the laying of a gas pipeline which runs some 63 kms
                 across Burma to the Thai border.

                 According to "Terror in the South", a report by the All
                 Burma Students' Democratic Front, as many as 79
                 villages and 6,421 households in southern Tenasserim
                 division have been forcibly relocated by Burmese troops
                 since mid-1996. The report also points to
extra-judicial
                 killings, destruction of villages, rape and sexual
                 harassment.

                 Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National
                 League for Democracy, doubts the benefits for the
                 Burmese people of the gas pipeline.

                 "As long as there's no accountable government in
                 Burma, I do not think the money generated by the gas
                 pipeline can be said to be invested for the country as
a
                 whole," she said in a recent interview with the
                 non-government Alternative Asean Network on Burma, a
                 transcript of which was obtained by the Bangkok Post.

                 The military junta, she said, "have absolute right to
                 decide what they will do with the revenues that they
gain.
                 They can use it all to buy arms or they can build the
                 military museum."

                 The Chuan government however is not without political
                 demands on Burma's leaders. The prime minister
                 himself turned down an invitation extended in December
                 for him to visit Rangoon. During his first term as
prime
                 minister, between 1992-1995, Burma was the only
                 neighbouring country he did not visit.

                 Thailand also advocated the concept of an "open
                 society" in the Asean Vision 2020 statement issued
                 during the grouping's informal summit in Kuala Lumpur
                 mid-December. Burma was certainly one member state
                 of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which
                 would have found it difficult to accept the call for
popular
                 participation in determining the future of Asean
                 communities.

                 Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines,
                 Singapore and Vietnam are the other member states.

                 In recent statements, Mr Surin has maintained that
                 Thailand had no option but to be a "moral and ethical"
                 force towards this goal. But he also has made clear
that
                 Thailand will "actively engage Burma in a positive way
                 without interference".

                 In the view of Thammasat University historian and
                 long-time Burma observer, Charnvit Kasetsiri, the Asean
                 emphasis on creating open societies "consistent with
                 respective national identity" obstructs realisation of
the
                 goal.

                 Sustainable Thai-Burmese relations, maintains Mr
                 Charnvit, depend very much on a political settlement in
                 Burma and on the establishment of truly peaceful
                 borders.

                 The major reshuffle in November that saw the ruling
                 State Law and Order Restoration Council dissolved and
                 replaced by the State Peace and Development Council,
                 with many new military commanders introduced,
                 indicates fierce internal conflict among top figures,
he
                 said.

                 If this political tension remains unsolved, economic
                 problems will persist, there will be no real ceasefire
                 between the regime and ethnic minority insurgents, and
                 Thailand will have to receive a new influx of Burmese
                 people, he concluded.

                 "As long as the situation inside Burma is not eased,
                 problems [between Thailand and Burma] will remain,"
                 he said.

                 Thailand is currently host to about a million illegal
                 Burmese immigrants who offer cheap labour for many
                 domestic industries. There are also up to 115,000
                 refugees encamped along the Thai-Burmese border.