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BKK POST: February 6, 1998: ANALYSI
- Subject: BKK POST: February 6, 1998: ANALYSI
- From: suriya@xxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 07 Feb 1998 09:38:00
BKK POST: February 6, 1998: ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE GAS PIPELINE
In life, the big man
nearly always wins
Conservationists have gone up against
the state machinery before and lost
each time. It is now more and more
probable the anti-pipeline campaign
will fare no better.
CHAKRIT RIDMONTRI and WASANT
TECHAWONGTHAM
This is a story about David versus Goliath. But unlike the
Biblical version, David in this story is doomed to be crushed.
David, in this case, is a loose alliance of grassroots groups in
Kanchanaburi: conservation and human rights organisations,
students' groups, environmental lawyers and common villagers.
Goliath is the Thai-Burmese pipeline developer, the Petroleum
Authority of Thailand (PTT), backed by the entire state
machinery and the industrial sector.
The fact that David with only a few resources has been able to
engage in battle with Goliath with his huge coffers for nearly two
years is a wonder in itself. But this is just because, unlike
conventional battle, victory is not defined by brute force. Rather
it is the ability to sway public opinion in one's favour.
Protests against the pipeline project began only after the PTT
had signed a contract with the gas exploration consortium in
Burma in which it holds a quarter stake.
Opponents demand that the project be scrapped altogether or
the pipeline route be diverted from forest areas. They claim,
among other things, that the pipeline will cause irreparable
damage to the ecology and the habitat of rare wildlife in forest
areas through which it will pass, that the lives of residents along
the pipeline route will be endangered by possible rupture or
sabotage, and that the money from the sale of gas will allow the
military junta in Burma to crush its ethnic and democratic
opposition more easily.
The PTT dismisses all charges, arguing that the project is the
best-laid plan taking everything into consideration. The
environment will suffer minimum impact and there is almost no
safety risk to residents along the pipeline. And to bolster its
position, the PTT has said repeatedly that the project is a matter
of national interest by securing energy supplies, and any delay
due to opposition will result in hefty fines.
So the battle ground is defined. What follows is the strategy each
side adopts to convince the public to stand behind it.
At first, only the local Kanchanaburi Conservation Group and a
couple of other environmental NGOs demanded that the PTT
reassess the environmental impact. Perceived as the underdog,
they captured the public's attention and sympathy earlier and
caused some consternation to the developer.
The PTT fought back. But being new to fighting for public
opinion, it was clumsy at first. It provided very facts facts to the
public and was seen as using coercion and threats against
complaining residents. It stonewalled the opponents' demand for
details of the contracts it signed with the gas exploration
consortium and its contractors.
However, the state oil company is a quick learner. It started
mending its way and put its well-oiled public relations machine to
work. It employs a multi-pronged strategy that tackles the
opponents on all sides.
At the most public level, it attempts to paint itself as green by
launching and publicising widely a reafforestation programme that
will cost billions of baht. This was followed by other campaigns
with a conservation theme in all media. The objective is
unmistakeable: if it has spent so much on environmental
conservation, why would it deliberately endanger the forests as
opponents are charging.
At another level, it is hammering home its argument equating the
project with the national interest, implying that the country will
suffer huge losses if the project is delayed. The opponents are
forces against national development.
Suspicions have arisen that the PTT is also at work at a
subterranean level. Observers suspect it is using its influence to
garner support from those most likely to benefit from the project,
such as the local chamber of commerce, industry, village and
tambon chiefs, and perhaps the local media as well. Opponents
also allege the PTT has used its well-endowed public relations
fund to sponsor events in support of its cause such as the most
recent rally by tens of thousands of local people at the provincial
hall.
The PTT is showing the most savvy in dealing with its foes by
agreeing to engage in a series of talks with its opponents, even at
the expense of halting construction for a few days during the
talks. But all the attempts not surprisingly have failed to yield any
substantive results. Indeed, it can be seen as an attempt by the
PTT to buy time and pacify its opponents, stringing them along
until they become exhausted and the PTT gains the upper hand.
Its sincerity to resolve the dispute is questionable given its
insistence that the pipeline route could not be diverted even from
the 6-km stretch of fertile forest, allowing no room for
compromise.
For their part, the opponents can rely on their only source of
support - from sympathisers among NGOs, students' groups,
academics and environmental lawyers - to get their message
across through the press.
But their meagre resources cannot compare with the PTT's, and
this shows in the disarray of the movement, the low morale of its
troops, and their leaders' feeling of isolation and frustration. Most
of the public appear to be no better informed of their cause. If it
has shown any interest at all, it is that it will benefit from cheap
energy. The opponents' threat to sue the PTT was not taken
seriously and is unlikely to succeed. They also have got nothing
from all the negotiations with the PTT.
The entrance to Huay Khayeng forest has become the final
battleground with the opponents setting up camp there to block
the PTT from laying the pipeline. They can do little except
protect a short 2-km stretch of lush forest against "intrusion" by
construction workers. And they are still banking their hope on
government-sponsored talks to lead to an acceptable resolution
despite many failures in the past.
It could well be a hopeless hope given the fact that successive
governments have not shown any enthusiasm for entertaining a
compromise that will result in a delay to the project, much less
now as the construction has reached the point of no return.
As the battle enters the final stage, David appears to have no
stones left for his slingshort but has put up guards ready for the
final onslaught, while Goliath has mustered all his resources
behind the pipeline and to isolate David in the trenches.
All the while, the construction of the pipeline moves steadily
forward, inching ever closer to the man-made barrier, ready to
push its way through at any opportune moment. When the
moment comes, police are expected to move in to haul the
protesters away with armed troops standing by to provide
additional support so that workers can lay the last pipe and seal
the system.
Goliath is readying for the kill and David is in the grip of the
death throes.
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Last Modified: Fri, Feb 6, 1998