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BKK POST: February 6, 1998: ANALYSI



BKK POST: February 6, 1998: ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE GAS PIPELINE 

              In life, the big man
              nearly always wins

              Conservationists have gone up against
              the state machinery before and lost
              each time. It is now more and more
              probable the anti-pipeline campaign
              will fare no better.

              CHAKRIT RIDMONTRI and WASANT
              TECHAWONGTHAM

              This is a story about David versus Goliath. But unlike the
              Biblical version, David in this story is doomed to be crushed.

              David, in this case, is a loose alliance of grassroots groups in
              Kanchanaburi: conservation and human rights organisations,
              students' groups, environmental lawyers and common villagers.
              Goliath is the Thai-Burmese pipeline developer, the Petroleum
              Authority of Thailand (PTT), backed by the entire state
              machinery and the industrial sector.

              The fact that David with only a few resources has been able to
              engage in battle with Goliath with his huge coffers for nearly two
              years is a wonder in itself. But this is just because, unlike
              conventional battle, victory is not defined by brute force. Rather
              it is the ability to sway public opinion in one's favour.

              Protests against the pipeline project began only after the PTT
              had signed a contract with the gas exploration consortium in
              Burma in which it holds a quarter stake.

              Opponents demand that the project be scrapped altogether or
              the pipeline route be diverted from forest areas. They claim,
              among other things, that the pipeline will cause irreparable
              damage to the ecology and the habitat of rare wildlife in forest
              areas through which it will pass, that the lives of residents along
              the pipeline route will be endangered by possible rupture or
              sabotage, and that the money from the sale of gas will allow the
              military junta in Burma to crush its ethnic and democratic
              opposition more easily.

              The PTT dismisses all charges, arguing that the project is the
              best-laid plan taking everything into consideration. The
              environment will suffer minimum impact and there is almost no
              safety risk to residents along the pipeline. And to bolster its
              position, the PTT has said repeatedly that the project is a matter
              of national interest by securing energy supplies, and any delay
              due to opposition will result in hefty fines.

              So the battle ground is defined. What follows is the strategy each
              side adopts to convince the public to stand behind it.

              At first, only the local Kanchanaburi Conservation Group and a
              couple of other environmental NGOs demanded that the PTT
              reassess the environmental impact. Perceived as the underdog,
              they captured the public's attention and sympathy earlier and
              caused some consternation to the developer.

              The PTT fought back. But being new to fighting for public
              opinion, it was clumsy at first. It provided very facts facts to the
              public and was seen as using coercion and threats against
              complaining residents. It stonewalled the opponents' demand for
              details of the contracts it signed with the gas exploration
              consortium and its contractors.

              However, the state oil company is a quick learner. It started
              mending its way and put its well-oiled public relations machine to
              work. It employs a multi-pronged strategy that tackles the
              opponents on all sides.

              At the most public level, it attempts to paint itself as green by
              launching and publicising widely a reafforestation programme that
              will cost billions of baht. This was followed by other campaigns
              with a conservation theme in all media. The objective is
              unmistakeable: if it has spent so much on environmental
              conservation, why would it deliberately endanger the forests as
              opponents are charging.

              At another level, it is hammering home its argument equating the
              project with the national interest, implying that the country will
              suffer huge losses if the project is delayed. The opponents are
              forces against national development.

              Suspicions have arisen that the PTT is also at work at a
              subterranean level. Observers suspect it is using its influence to
              garner support from those most likely to benefit from the project,
              such as the local chamber of commerce, industry, village and
              tambon chiefs, and perhaps the local media as well. Opponents
              also allege the PTT has used its well-endowed public relations
              fund to sponsor events in support of its cause such as the most
              recent rally by tens of thousands of local people at the provincial
              hall.

              The PTT is showing the most savvy in dealing with its foes by
              agreeing to engage in a series of talks with its opponents, even at
              the expense of halting construction for a few days during the
              talks. But all the attempts not surprisingly have failed to yield any
              substantive results. Indeed, it can be seen as an attempt by the
              PTT to buy time and pacify its opponents, stringing them along
              until they become exhausted and the PTT gains the upper hand.

              Its sincerity to resolve the dispute is questionable given its
              insistence that the pipeline route could not be diverted even from
              the 6-km stretch of fertile forest, allowing no room for
              compromise.

              For their part, the opponents can rely on their only source of
              support - from sympathisers among NGOs, students' groups,
              academics and environmental lawyers - to get their message
              across through the press.

              But their meagre resources cannot compare with the PTT's, and
              this shows in the disarray of the movement, the low morale of its
              troops, and their leaders' feeling of isolation and frustration. Most
              of the public appear to be no better informed of their cause. If it
              has shown any interest at all, it is that it will benefit from cheap
              energy. The opponents' threat to sue the PTT was not taken
              seriously and is unlikely to succeed. They also have got nothing
              from all the negotiations with the PTT.

              The entrance to Huay Khayeng forest has become the final
              battleground with the opponents setting up camp there to block
              the PTT from laying the pipeline. They can do little except
              protect a short 2-km stretch of lush forest against "intrusion" by
              construction workers. And they are still banking their hope on
              government-sponsored talks to lead to an acceptable resolution
              despite many failures in the past. 

              It could well be a hopeless hope given the fact that successive
              governments have not shown any enthusiasm for entertaining a
              compromise that will result in a delay to the project, much less
              now as the construction has reached the point of no return.

              As the battle enters the final stage, David appears to have no
              stones left for his slingshort but has put up guards ready for the
              final onslaught, while Goliath has mustered all his resources
              behind the pipeline and to isolate David in the trenches.

              All the while, the construction of the pipeline moves steadily
              forward, inching ever closer to the man-made barrier, ready to
              push its way through at any opportune moment. When the
              moment comes, police are expected to move in to haul the
              protesters away with armed troops standing by to provide
              additional support so that workers can lay the last pipe and seal
              the system.

              Goliath is readying for the kill and David is in the grip of the
              death throes.




                                     




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Last Modified: Fri, Feb 6, 1998