BKK POST: February 08, 1998: From S

[suriya@xxxxxxxxxxxx]

FROM SLORC TO SPDC: THE ONLY CHANGE IS NAME

BURMA: The ruling council in Burma has been renamed but the change probably does not mean any change in basic policies.

MARTIN STUART-FOX and SURESH KUMAR
Reproduced from TRENDS: A monthly publication of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) in Singapore.



Last Nov 15 last year, the military State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) issued proclamation 1 97 dissolving itself.  In its place was proclaimed the State Peace and Development Council(SPDC), which promptly appointed a new government . The only reason  given for these changes was that they would assist in the " emergence of (a) discipline-flourishing (sic) democratic system in the State and building of a-peaceful, tranquil and modern developed nation ".
 Judging by the deafening silence on the part of the international community that greeted this change in name, few believe that it heralds any real shift in policy on the part of the military regime. It is worth asking, however, why the junta acted when it did and what, if any, the implications may be.
 One possible explanation for the change in name is that it is purely cosmetic, a sop to the sensitivities of  Asean, now that Burma is a member state.  As Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw admitted in an interview with Radio Singapore Internal (RSI) "the Asean leadership would observe the Burma initiative as encouraging".  As an acronym, Slorc had a sinister ring: the SPDC will carry no such overtones.  The image, at least, of a harsh, repressive regime, may thus be softened.  Moreover as National Planning and Economic Development Minister Brigadier-General David Abel also told RSI, the emphasis on law and order was "sort of regimental".  The shift to peace and development "is more flexible and more on the economic side".               
But the change also reflects how the military views its success to date and assesses current priorities.With 16 out of 17 former rebel groups now legally recognised regional organisations, and political opposition reduced to a controllable minimum, law and order has been restored. It is time ,threfore, to
move On.The new goals will be to keep the peace and promote development.

 Another possible reason for the timing of the change may have to do with the recent financial crisis in, several Asean states.  While more liberal economic policies have attracted some foreign investment into Burma since 1988, serious econornic problems remain.  The level of inefficiency and corruption is a source of discouragement to foreign businessmen.  No attempt has been made to reform the exchange rate.  During the past 12 months the kyat has fallen from 180 to over 300 again st the US dollar, more than 50 times the official rate, while inflation is running at around 40 per cent.  As cheap Chinese manufactured goods flood the country, inefficlent state enterprises are becoming even less competitive while public sector salaries dwindle.
 Fear of an approaching economic crisis may just have been the catalyst for a much needed infusion of new faces and new thinking at the top levels of the regime.  As Ohn Gyaw admitted to RSI, "the tenipo, the momentum of growth we expected (has) not been very satisfactory".  For as he diplomatically insinuated, the contributions of people who have served in an institution "long enough ... become less and less ... they take things for granted".
 Membership of the SPDC certainly represents a substantial shakeup.  Of the 21 former members of the Slorc, only the top four have retained their positions in the new council.  Real Power thus remains firmly in the hands of Senior General Than Shwe.  SPDC Chairman and concurrently , Prime Minister and Minister of Defence; SPDC ViceChairman General Maung Aye; and Lieutenant-Generals Khin Nyunt and Tin Oo, respectively Secretaries 1 and 2 of the new Council.  Fourteen of the remaining 17 Slorc inernbers have been shunted aside into honorary positions in an obviously powerless "Advisory Group"  Their places have been taken on the SPDC by current commanders of the  Navy, the Air Force, and the regional Army commands.

This is a purely military leadership and there are no civilian members of the SPDC.  The message is therefore clear: the military has no intention of relinquishing any real power, even to their own tame civilians.  Twenty-eight out of 40 ministers in the- reconstituted government and 19 out of 35 deputy ministers are military officers.  In. some cases, notably Foreign Affairs, both minister and deputy minister are civilians, but in most responsibilities where there are civilian ministers, they have military deputies.  There are also retired military officers in civilian garb.
 Of the 40 ministers, 16 are new faces and two were previously deputy ministers: most of the deputy ministers are new.  The changes are thus substantial enough to signal serious intent, though whether putting new military men in charge of areas in which they have no special expertise will rejuvenate the Burma administration and economy remains to be seen.  For it is too early to say whether performance rather patronage, merit rather than seniority, will actually be the criteria for holding public office.
 One thing is certain. the military has no intention of meeting international demands for a role in government for the Natioristi League for Democracy, despite its resounding victory in the 1990 elections.  As Ohn Gyaw told RSI, "what we are concerned [with] is not that process ... what we are now trying to build is ... disciplined democracy, disciplineflourishing democracy".  But, he added, "we respect human rights ... [and] we are very much tolerant".
 So does the change in name mean a change in basic policies?  Almost certainly not.  Slore by any other name clearly intends to enforce a constitution modelled along Indonesian lines which will effectively consolidate military dominance of Burma politics for the foreseeable future, while excluding the NLD.  Aung Sang Suu Kyi, is far too popular and formidable an opponent to be allowed to play any political role.
 As for the economy, more decisive moves can be expected, if only out of sheer necessity.  The regime is under some pressure from its Asean partners to put its economic house in order; and it does desire international recognition.  In the international arena, as well as the domestic, it has discovered the value of political rhetoric, for action need not match words.  But rhetoric is a two-edged sword, for it raises expectations even the rhetoric of a name change.  The SPDC will after all have something to live up to.

* Dr Martin Stuart-Fox is head, Department of History, University of Queensland, Australia and Suresh Kumar is a broadcast journalist with Radio Singapore International.