Suharto can look to Thailand or Bur

[mandalay@xxxxxxxxxx]

Suharto can look to Thailand or Burma for way out

Letter

Feb. 12 1998
The Nation
MORE serious confrontations and riots in Indonesia seem
to be unavoidable unless President Suharto gives up his
30-year monopoly on power and lets other political groups
have more participation in national politics. 

This is unlikely to happen because he, his family and his
military supporters will be the big losers. 

Based on political theory and history, elites always
hesitate to give up their power and it always ends up in a
bloody conflict with the people. There are many examples
in recent political history, such as the fall of the military
government in Thailand, President Marcos of the
Philippines, President Park Chung-hee of South Korea
and many incidents in Latin American and Africa. 

These elites had two things in common -- they had been in
power too long and they were corrupt. The sad political
scenarios go something like this: 

- In developing countries, only a handful of elites control
political power and wealth and most people are poor; 

- Absolute power corrupts absolutely; 

- These powerful and corrupt elites squander national
resources and revenues and eventually cause political,
economic and social chaos; 

- People feel discontented; 

- Uprisings, confrontations, riots and civil war may occur. 

I think time is running out for Suharto. If he wants to hang
around for a few more years, he should consult his
Burmese military friends. The Burmese military
government knows a lot about political manipulation
tactics. 

If he wants a peaceful solution, our Chamlong and/or
Suchinda could give him and his military supporters a
good practical lesson on how to avoid a bloody civil war. 


Monthon 

Bangkok