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The BurmaNet News: March 30, 1998



------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------   
"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"   
----------------------------------------------------------   
 
The BurmaNet News: March 30, 1998    
Issue #970

HEADLINES:    
========== 
THE NATION: GREATER UNHRC ROLE WILL AID TRANSPARENCY
THE NATION: SUU KYI LASHES OUT AT OIL COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN BURMA
THE NATION: MAKE NO CONCESSION TO THE BURMESE JUNTA: PROTECT THE REFUGEES
BKK POST: AUSTRILIAN AND THAI REPORTED ABDUCTED
BKK POST: TRYING TO AVOID BORDER TROUBLES
ASIAWEEK: HARD TIMES IN YANGON
ASIAWEEK: 'DON'T BE SO IMPATIENT'
ASIAWEEK: TB, THE ASIAN SERIAL KILLER
-------------------------------------------------------
THE NATION: GREATER UNHRC ROLE WILL AID TRANSPARENCY
March 30, 1998
Editorial 
Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai's tacit support for the proposal to allow more
involvement of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in
the handling of refugee camps along the Thai-Burmese border is a bold and
laudable move. 

Additional praise should be given for his order to take all-out military
retaliation against the Rangoon-backed Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
if they again attack Burmese refugee camps whose residents are mostly
sympathetic to Gen Bo Mya's Karen National Union (KNU), the last remaining
ethnic armed insurgency still holding out on a ceasefire agreement with the
Burmese military junta. 

Chuan's actions will send a strong signal to the military leaders in
Rangoon, who as a close neighbour and fellow member in Asean should respond
by offering their cooperation in the ongoing investigation into the
cross-border raids. The junta cannot expect to get away with denying all
responsibility. After all, the DKBA broke away from the KNU in 1995 and has
since been working with Rangoon to crush the rebel group. 

The recent violence has drawn international attention, prompting a visit to
the refugee camps by the UNHCR along with the ambassadors of the United
States, Australia and Britain as well as secretary-general of the National
Security Council Gen Bunsak Khamhaengritthirong. In a joint statement issued
after the visit last Friday they agreed to support Thailand's move to
relocate the camps deeper into Thai territory for security and humanitarian
reasons. 

Be it security-driven or economy-driven, the greater involvement on the part
of the UNHCR in Burmese refugee camps marked a quantam change in the Thai
military's approach to the problem. For years they have feared that with UN
involvement the Burmese refugees would become a permanent issue or that UN
meddling would obstruct Thai security operations along the border. 

Hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees, residing in camps inside the Thai
border have long been victims of barbarous killings and endless abuses as a
result of prolonged fighting between Rangoon and armed ethnic insurgencies.
Thailand's past and persistent refusal of a UN role in the Burmese refugee
camps has put a black mark against the points scored for the help given in
sheltering Cambodian refugees. 

The UNHCR, which had worked successfully with Thai authorities in caring for
300,000 Cambodians until the last Cambodian refugee camp was emptied last
year, currently has only limited access to the Burmese refugee camps. They
will be allowed to visit camps on a case-by-case basis. Not surprisingly,
Thailand has often been accused by human-rights groups of having an opaque
and inhumane policy toward the Burmese refugees. 

But in the interests of both the Thai government and the safety and
well-being of the refugees, the UNHCR role should at least be equal to that
it had in the handling of Cambodian refugees, giving the UN body not
ultimate authority but a day-to-day presence in the camps and certain rights
to offer recommendations. 

Although the debate on the role of UNHCR is inconclusive, what could be done
first as a goodwill step is to utilise UNHCR's skill in screening the
refugees to determine whether they are bona fide before the government moves
the refugee camps deeper into Thai territory to ensure better security
protection for them. 

Nonetheless the question remains whether the relocation of the present camps
would solve the security problems. Some of the refugees are family members
of KNU fighters. This may also trigger protests from non-governmental
organisations operating along the border. 

Chuan will also anticipate tough talks with those who are deeply concerned
with the security of Thailand, but he must be firm in his stance. Thailand
has already earned a name as a showcase of democracy and human rights; now
this is another chance for Chuan to prove that.

*****************************************************

THE NATION: SUU KYI LASHES OUT AT OIL COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN    BURMA
March 30, 1998

BY YINDEE LERTCHAROENCHOK 
LONDON -- Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has strongly
criticised the Premier Oil investment in Burma, saying its deal with the
Burmese junta "does a great disservice to the cause of democracy" and
"contributes to repression in the country". 

She charged the British oil company with being "very selfish" and of sending
the wrong signal to the Burmese regime, which could then argue that "however
repressive they may be, they still have the support of big companies". 

"And if these [companies] are from Western democracies, it's even more
serious, because it gives the military regime a chance to say: 'Look: even
companies from Western democracies support us, so what we are doing can't be
that wrong," said Suu Kyi in a video statement recently smuggled out of Burma. 

Meanwhile a London-based Burma human-rights group has launched a campaign to
push the British government to impose unilateral financial sanctions on
Burma in order to prevent investments such as Premier Oil's. 

In press statements released ahead of the second Asia-Europe Meeting, the
Burma Action Group said a new analysis by Essex University concluded that
"it is legally possible for a member state [of the European Union] to impose
a ban on foreign investment in Burma". 

"Significantly, the financial sanctions can be imposed for 'serious
political reasons and on grounds of urgency'," said the summary of the legal
analysis, done by Steve Peers, director of the university's Centre for
European Commercial Law. It also said the "criterion seems easy to meet in
the case of Burma". 

Financial sanctions can run the gamut from very limited restrictions on
direct investment to a complete ban on new direct investment with divestment
orders and asset freezes, it added. 

In her message, Suu Kyi questioned the British government's sincerity and
expressed doubt about why the British government's tough stance against
Burma was not translated into firm action to curb the economic activities of
British companies such as Premier Oil. 

She charged the British company with being "very selfish" and said the
company's project was not only supporting the Burmese regime financially:
"It is also giving it moral support, and it is doing a great disservice to
the cause of democracy." The Burmese Nobel Prize laureate added: "It should
be ashamed of itself." 

In 1990, Premier Oil and its partners Petronas of Malaysia, Nippon of Japan
and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand entered into a US$700-million deal
with Burma's state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise for the development
and sale of gas in the Gulf of Martaban. 

In an interview last week Yvette Mahon, director of the Burma Action Group,
said her organisation was trying to push individual members of the European
Union to impose unilateral sanctions on Burma as earlier attempts for a
collective EU measure had been blocked by major member countries,
particularly France and Germany. 

*****************************************************
THE NATION: MAKE NO CONCESSION TO THE BURMESE JUNTA: PROTECT THE REFUGEES

March 30, 1998

Letter to the Editor

The reason refugee camps are established is to shield innocents from war.
Traditionally, even during periods when the Royal Thai Army unabashedly
supported the Karen National Union (KNU), rarely were weapons taken into
official camps. The reason for this in the past was the habit of some Thai
soldiers and police to confiscate the weapons and then sell them back to the
KNU. 

Now the Army is going to send all young men in camps back to Burma. This
would seem to be another self-inflicted black eye. After rolling over and
allowing the invasion of Thai territory by the Burmese-junta-backed factions
of the Karen, the ante is upped again, and further concessions are made to
the dictators in Rangoon. 

This flies in the face of claims the Army must maintain control of border
security. There appears to be little "security". The very word means that
attacks should be prevented and not answered with a few indirect fire
rounds, fired into the jungle to show a false bravado in the face of
aggression. 

As was bound to happen, the KNU finally was forced, in the face of Thai Army
opposition, to retaliate itself. As should be obvious, they have little
trouble handling the breakaway faction or the Burmese military. 

At some point the image of this country and the security of its borders are
going to have to take priority over tropical hardwoods and business deals.
That includes refraining from sending unarmed young men into the arms of the
Burmese State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to appease these goons
rather than do what an Army is supposed to do and cut off the nose of any
Burmese army minion who sticks it across the border. 

In a time when Thailand must work with the world's community to try and
overcome the financial fiasco of the last government, it appears the image
of the country must continue to be damaged by those who cling to the
toadying foreign policy of money over national honour of the previous Gen
Chavalit's regime. 

In the face of SPDC denying any connection with the raids by the Democratic
Karen Buddhist Army, the Royal Thai Army should be saying something about
the KNU. At this point there is no connection or support for the KNU. In
this SPDC is lying and the Royal Thai Army is telling the truth. 

What was just seen in the KNU attack on SPDC/DKBA was a demonstration of
what the true capabilities of the KNU are. To protect innocent lives the KNU
has restrained itself on the battlefields near Thailand. I fear if the young
men are sent unarmed into the arms of SPDC, to die, all bets will be off,
and there will be a real bloodletting along the border. 

Sadly all this could be avoided by simply killing any armed intruder. But it
seems unarmed refugees are much easier to deal with. 

Mark A Smith 
Major, US (retired) 
Bangkok

*****************************************************
BKK POST: AUSTRILIAN AND THAI REPORTED ABDUCTED
March 30, 1998
DKBA troops said to have seized the pair

Supamart Kasem and Wassana Nanuam

An Australian man and a Thai woman have been allegedly seized by pro-Rangoon
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army soldiers.

However, a DKBA officer denied this, saying they had in fact been invited to
view the plight of the Karens inside Burma and would be returned in four or
five days.

A military source said the alleged capture of the pair on Friday prompted
army chief Gen Chettha Thanajaro to call Burmese leader Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt,
first secretary of Burma's State Peace and Development Council, yesterday.
He called for their release, fearing their capture would damage Thailand's
reputation. The Burmese leader agreed to have the pair returned in one or
two days, said the source.

A Border Patrol Police source said Nick Cheeseman, 28, and Ms Ngamsuk
Rattanasathien, 30, were forced to wade across the Moei River from the Thai
side near Ban Wang Takhian in Mae Sot district to take photographs of the
DKBA's Yoar Kyi camp which was devastated by a Karen National Union attack
on Thursday night. DKBA soldiers pointed rifles at the pair and then took
them away.

BPP Company 346 commander Pol Lt-Col Noppol Chatiwong yesterday tried to get
information from the DKBA about the two by shouting questions across the
river. Yoar Kyi camp deputy Nu Nu said they were fine and had not been
captured. He said that Mr Cheeseman and Ms Ngamsuk had been invited to see
how Karens in Burma had suffered because they had an interest in the conflict.

Nu Nu said DKBA headquarters at Mya Yi Ngu camp in Hlaingbwe had ordered
that the pair be taken to the camp on Friday afternoon.

"Don't worry. They will be returned in four to five days," Nu Nu was quoted
as saying.

Nu Nu accused Thai authorities of conspiring with the KNU to carry out
recent attacks on DKBA camps that had left many soldiers dead and wounded
and property destroyed.

He also accused Thai authorities of not allowing the wounded to receive
medical treatment in Thai hospitals and barring DKBA soldiers from buying
consumer goods in Thailand.

Nu Nu agreed to let Pol Lt-Gen Noppol talk to Saw Tun Hla, the camp
commander, this morning.

Mr Cheeseman is a member of international organisation, Burma Issues. He has
been teaching English to Karen refugees at Huay Kalok camp in Mae Sot for
some years.

Chris Cusano, 28, an American member of Burma Issues, said after learning of
the pair's capture he asked Karen refugees at Huay Kalok camp to help
contact Karens at Yoar Kyi camp to seek their release, without informing the
Thai authorities. However, this had proved fruitless. Other group members
decided to report the matter to the Australian Embassy. 

Police at a BPP checkpoint on Wang Takhian-Wang Kaew road by the Moei River
said Mr Cheeseman and Ms Ngamsuk had left their bicycles at the checkpoint
at about 2 p.m. on Friday, saying they would go to Doi Hin Kiu temple, which
is frequently visited by tourists.

The BPP warned them about the fighting between the rival Karens but they did
not listen.

The military source said Gen Chettha had also sent a letter to Lt-Gen Khin
Nyunt through the military attache at the Burmese Embassy denying Thailand
supported KNU attacks on the DKBA.

In a previous incident in April 1996, Burmese soldiers crossed the border
and plundered Sho Klo refugee camp in Tha Song Yang district. A Dutch couple
conducting research on malaria in the camp were robbed and the wife raped.

*****************************************************
BKK POST: TRYING TO AVOID BORDER TROUBLES
March 30, 1998

Editorial
Thailand faces a number of risks as our neighbours battle for power. The
first is the danger to Thai citizens from the fighting. In recent months,
fire from both Burma and Cambodia has hit Thai territory, and killed our
citizens. Cross-border attacks by Rangoon-supported guerrillas have become
intolerably deadly. Our challenge is to deal with our border problems
realistically, but to avoid being sucked into the internal politics or
fighting of our neighbours. 

On one side, there are the Karen forces raised by the Rangoon government.
They have joined a campaign against Karen rebels whose dispute with Burma's
central government reaches back virtually to the nation's independence. This
year the fighting has flowed into Thailand, where it has killed Thai
citizens and the innocent Karen refugees we are sheltering. 

Things are marginally better on the northeastern border, but potentially far
more dangerous. Cambodia remains incapable of settling its internal
problems. This continues to pose grave security risks to our country.
Thailand continues to shelter tens of thousands of Cambodians. But this
drain on our money and human resources may be the least of the problems on
the Khmer border. A confusing and menacing situation threatens to draw
Thailand in. 

Prince Norodom Ranariddh returns to Cambodia today to establish his presence
for the July elections. Hun Sen supporters have raised tensions by holding
demonstrations against him. The kangaroo courts against Prince Ranariddh in
recent weeks have been totally unnecessary and harmful to security. It is
entirely moot whether Hun Sen, whose reputation as the godfather of Cambodia
is growing, will allow free elections. 

If that is not enough, there will be a memorial today for the dead in last
year's terrorist attack on a political meeting in Phnom Penh. The US embassy
has issued travel warnings around the capital. It notes that large crowds
carry the potential for political violence. 

Up on our Cambodian border, Thai forces and citizens face danger and
uncertainty, as do tens of thousands of Khmer refugees. A strong propaganda
campaign from Phnom Penh began last week to claim that the Khmer Rouge base
at Anlong Veng was in government hands. Although this has proved incorrect,
strong rumours continue to be fanned by the Hun Sen team and its foreign
advisers. As with a similar false campaign last December, many of the
rumours being spread from Phnom Penh centre on Khmer Rouge leaders fleeing
towards Thailand. 

Thailand confronts the dilemma it has had to face so many times in the past
two decades. On the one hand, it is clear the country must defend its
borders from intruders. As Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai made clear last
week, there can be no further warnings or simple protests when Burma's so
called Burmese Democratic Karen Army crosses our frontier. If anything, it
was time for the premier, who is also defence minister, to take a stand on
these outrageous border incursions. 

If Thailand cannot welcome armed attackers, we always have tried to welcome
innocent victims of war. In the past two decades, well over one million old
men, women and children have sought asylum on Thai soil. Today, the number
of Cambodian and Burmese refugees is approaching 150,000. We continue to
provide food and shelter to these casualties of war, and must continue to do
so. 

Thailand must punish, quickly and violently, any further attack from across
the border. Our authorities cannot allow harm to come to our citizens, nor
to refugees. At the same time, we must not become directly involved in the
problems of Burma and Cambodia. 

********************************************************

ASIAWEEK: HARD TIMES IN YANGON
April 3, 1998
Despite economic woes, the generals' jobs are safe 
By Roger Mitton / Yangon 

It is not just politics that is slowing Myanmar's economic development these
days. It is the financial crisis too. "If money is to be made, no matter how
tyrannical or corrupt the regime, businessmen will flock there," says
Malaysian Syed Ahmad Idid, who recently visited Myanmar with an ASEAN
business delegation. But Asia's economic problems have forced companies to
curb overseas investment. "With the exception of Singapore, the financially
distressed members of ASEAN can be expected to halt their investments in
Myanmar," says U.S.-based academic Mya Maung. 

During a March visit to Yangon, Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad said his
country -- the fifth-largest investor in Myanmar after the United Kingdom,
Singapore, Thailand and the United States -- would like to increase its
presence in the country, but is constrained by economic troubles at home.
"The focus today is more on trade than investment," said Mahathir. That is
probably true for most of ASEAN, and may not be such a bad thing. As cabinet
minister David Abel points out, 46% of Myanmar's trade is with ASEAN. Much
of it involves food and raw materials, commodities less affected by the
economic downturn. "People still need to eat," he says. 

It is one of the ironies of the regional crisis that the more isolated a
country, the less affected it is by the turmoil. This is as true for Myanmar
as it is for Vietnam and Laos. As one of Myanmar's military leaders says:
"We are self-reliant, so it's not as bad as all that." And it is unlikely to
get bad enough to threaten the junta, or the totalitarian regimes in Hanoi
and Vientiane. Few expect the economic troubles to have a dramatic political
impact. 

The changes to the government last November -- which included the abrupt
sacking of many ministers -- did have a strong economic motive, though. New
men took over the finance and commerce portfolios. Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw
told Asiaweek: "We knew that we could not go on as we were. We know that we
have been left behind for 30 years. What we need most of all now is economic
development." 

But no one likes a military dictatorship, and the generals who usurped power
and are ruling (or perhaps misruling) Myanmar, rightly come in for their
share of condemnation. Despite its undeniable progress, Myanmar still has a
long way to go. In truth, everyone knows that the economy will not take off
until the political deadlock is resolved. Even some in the junta concede
this. The nation's most prominent leader, Khin Nyunt, says: "In any country,
political and economic changes occur hand-in-hand, and economic development
is possible only if there is political stability." Privately, the government
and the National League for Democracy are showing some flexibility. Informed
sources say this has led to recent clandestine meetings between the NLD
head, Aung San Suu Kyi, and Khin Nyunt that could lead to a major
breakthrough this year. Partly at the behest of ASEAN leaders, the notion of
power-sharing is being considered. Suu Kyi has not ruled this out. 

Meanwhile, the economic slowdown is real enough. Since July, the kyat has
lost about 35% against the U.S. dollar. The official exchange rate is six
kyat to the dollar, but the sanctioned "commercial" rate (that tourists use)
is about 250. Businessmen are allowed to convert their kyat earnings into
foreign-exchange certificates (technically equivalent to dollars) at the
commercial rate. But they can repatriate only $50,000 a month, if the
currency is available. 

Foreign-exchange reserves have fallen, though officials are reluctant to
admit by how much. In mid-1997, the World Bank estimated Myanmar's foreign
reserves at about $150 million -- less than one month's worth of imports.
The government has imposed severe import controls over the past nine months,
yet hard currency is still at a premium. An Asian diplomat struggling to
encourage his countrymen to invest in Myanmar says: "The present situation
is not easy, especially because of the shortage of foreign exchange."
Already, representative offices of Malaysian, South Korean and Thai banks
have cut back staff or temporarily closed their doors. Myanmar was counting
on tourism to help increase the reserves, and has enough hotel rooms for the
next five years. But fewer Asians are traveling now. 

Cross-border trade with Thailand and China has been stymied by Yangon's
curbs on imports. "It's bad, and worse is to follow," says one trader. "We
are facing a big crisis. No one is exporting or importing." The restrictions
on imports of luxury goods have led to shortages of such items as UHT milk,
wine and liquor. Says an Asian diplomat: "Since last July, it has been
difficult to get import licenses, except for essential goods. Cars, air
conditioners and video players are all piling up on the docks in Singapore."
Yangon retorts that companies from Japan, Korea and even Singapore bring in
products, such as second-hand cars, that they cannot sell at home. "It's a
form of dumping," says Abel. "Even the U.S. has rules against that." Now
there is a total ban on the import of new cars. 

Still, Yangon's shops remain busy -- though often there is a lot more
window-shopping than buying. In the Yuzana department store consumers can
still find everything from Samsung washing machines to Levi jeans to Johnnie
Walker scotch (though increasingly Myanmar beer and Mandalay rum fill the
shelves). 

And despite hand-wringing about foreign debt, Myanmar's is still relatively
small ($5.2 billion compared to Thailand's $92.9 billion and Indonesia's
$137.4 billion). As well, Myanmar's annual 7% growth rate for the past four
years is creditable -- though some say it is only 4% in real local-currency
terms. Abel says it should be 6% over the next five years. 

That kind of confidence is due, in part, to the fact that some of Myanmar's
top investors, including Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and China, have been
relatively unscathed by the economic crisis. Says Mya Maung: "The two
countries from which Myanmar can hope to secure funds are Japan,
historically its largest creditor and supporter, and China, its greatest
ally since 1988." Because of this assistance, he says, "the safety net for
the survival of the junta seems to be in place." 

In February, Japan pledged $25 million to upgrade the runway at Yangon's
international airport. The resumption of full overseas development
assistance, cut off when the generals ignored the NLD's victory in the 1990
elections, is expected to follow. Last month, Japan's Mitsui and Co.
completed an 89-hectare, $20-million Mingaladon Industrial Park near the
airport. Investors from Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Singapore have already
taken plots. Meanwhile, another Japanese firm, Marubeni, is working on
several hydro-projects in northern Myanmar. 

A $160-million Mandalay airport, built by the Italian-Thai Development
Corp., will open this year. Israel's Telrad Ltd. has upgraded Yangon's
telecommunications system. In March, the government signed an agreement with
Thailand's Shinawatra Co. to use its satellite for telecom services. And
sources say that in addition to Singapore and China (Yangon's main arms
supplier), Israeli, Russian, Swedish and Swiss companies have sold the
generals military equipment. 

In addition, France's Total, U.S.-based Unocal and Mitsui are involved in a
$1-billion project to build a pipeline from the Yadana offshore gas field to
Yangon. A power station will be constructed at the gas terminal. A second
pipeline will soon start to deliver gas to Thailand. 

The big projects will pay off one day. But for now even Khin Nyunt concedes
that Myanmar's economy, foreign-exchange reserves and infrastructure are in
pretty lamentable shape. At a recent seminar, he said the budget deficit had
burgeoned from $267 million in 1995 to $853 million in 1996 and has worsened
since. The defense ministry still eats up 24% of revenue. 

As Khin Nyunt pointed out, local quick-profit entrepreneurs, a Western lobby
against foreign investment in Myanmar and poor domestic tax collection all
contribute to the nation's dire economic status. Revenue collected totals a
mere 3% of GDP (in other words, a paltry $165 million in 1995.) This has
resulted in "the very fragile state of the Myanmar monetary situation," he
said. Although these shortcomings are no secret, it was unprecedented for a
top military leader to admit such serious problems in the nation of 48.8
million. 

Change cannot come soon enough. Academic Mya Maung says: "The real threat to
the regime is that the economy under its gross mismanagement is in a
downward spiral with escalating inflation, shortages of basic goods, rampant
corruption and pervasive poverty that signal a massive political convulsion
and violence like the 1988 uprising." Others regard this doomsday scenario
as highly unlikely -- at least for the immediate future. 

Abel says: "We will catch up. And we will do it our way. We know who our
friends are -- ASEAN, China, Japan, India." With friends like that Myanmar
may well be able to tough out the hard times. But it will not be easy.

******************************************************
ASIAWEEK: 'DON'T BE SO IMPATIENT'
April 3, 1998
A military leader asks for understanding

David Abel is one of Myanmar's best-known cabinet ministers. Yet he is an
exception. Abel is a Catholic in an overwhelmingly Buddhist country, speaks
flawless English and -- most unusual of all -- is comfortable meeting
foreigners. He has headed the departments of finance and national planning
and economic development. In November he was appointed a minister in the
office of Than Shwe, the chairman of the ruling State Peace and Development
Council. Abel recently spoke with Senior Correspondent Roger Mitton in
Yangon. Excerpts from their talk: 

How is the economy? 
During the first four-year plan, from 1992 to 1995, under the free market
system, it was very good. The average annual growth rate was about 7.5%. We
are now in the second five-year plan, and expect growth of about 6%. For the
year just ending March 31, our target is 6.4%, and we should hit that quite
easily. From next year on, when investments in oil and gas and other sectors
come on stream, the economy will take a very sharp change for the better. 

How will the regional economic crisis affect you? 
ASEAN accounts for 46% of our trade and 51% of our investments. The crisis
may slow down some investments. Those from Indonesia, for instance, we will
have to re-think. They are having a bad time. But our trade will not be
affected much because we export mainly agricultural products, foodstuffs,
raw materials. Countries have to keep on importing food. 

Your foreign exchange reserves are quite low, aren't they? 
I wouldn't say quite low. We are quite comfortable. We can keep the pot
boiling. 

Many complain about the dual exchange rates. Officially the rate is six kyat
to the U.S. dollar, but unofficially it is about 250. 
Yes, that's a big problem. I've asked for help from the World Bank and IMF
to have a readjustment of the rates, but they are not cooperative at all. I
say: "We want to change it, but you have to help us." At the moment we get
nothing, nothing, except some technical assistance. The kyat is over-valued.
We have to readjust. But if the IMF doesn't help us, then there is a big
problem ahead. We can do it when the economy is strong, but if we do it
right now it will hit the man on the street. The poor will suffer. 

Are U.S. sanctions hurting Myanmar? 
Sanctions don't work. Besides, we virtually sanctioned ourselves for 26
years and we survived. We are self-sufficient in food, clothing and shelter.
Now, after we opened up, they sanctioned us again. What's the use? 

They would like to force political reform. 
Well, that's their feeling. But shouldn't they consider the feelings of
others? According to the U.N. charter, which they should respect, a big
power should not use sanctions to pressure countries into accepting what
they want. We are working to resolve our internal problems and to build the
economy at the same time. We are doing both. I don't know why the world is
so impatient. 

Do you think Myanmar is unfairly targeted? 
Of course, we feel that all the time. We are targeted as a scapegoat, as a
showpiece. Because we are a small country, we are pushed around. Yet we are
sincere. We don't want the armed forces to keep power all the time. So we
are trying our best to have a final solution where we have an elected
government, a good government where all the nationalities are involved and
the union of Myanmar is consolidated. 

Are there any divisions in the military leadership about the pace of reform? 
No. It is just wishful thinking. People only talk about divisions. But they
never talk about the common objectives: to have a democratic society, to
have a peaceful, prosperous and united country. 

Myanmar agreed to the ASEAN vision of an "open society." Yet yours is very
closed. 
Many in ASEAN are not open. It is a suggestion, and we have to look at what
people mean by an open society. We are moving to a democratic system. Once
the new Constitution is out, people will be able to vote in elections. 

Will the National League for Democracy be able to run in the elections? 
Yes. If they are still a party, why not? 

Your dialogue with the NLD seems stalled because you won't let Aung San Suu
Kyi, the secretary-general, attend. 
We asked the party chairman and two of his representatives to attend. But
they decided that nobody in the NLD is to meet with any government officials
without the secretary-general. If she says they can't go, then she must get
the blame. It's her problem. 

Do you think dialogue would be more effective without her? 
I wouldn't say that 100%. But we were already having a dialogue, informal
talks, with the NLD's chairman and senior party members. That's a good step,
a good sign. It should be pursued.

******************************************************

ASIAWEEK: TB, THE ASIAN SERIAL KILLER
April 3, 1998
The WHO warns of an incurable strain
By Stephen Seawright

Seven Asian nations have been named among 16 countries that are not doing
enough to help halt the global spread of tuberculosis. A World Health
Organization (WHO) report says the seven -- Afghanistan, India, Indonesia,
Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand -- are not taking seriously
its warning of a looming TB emergency. Without a more committed effort from
these and other countries, the report says, 70 million people worldwide will
die of the disease between now and 2020. 

In particular, the organization accuses the seven of moving too slowly to
implement DOTS (for Directly Observed Treatment), which the report describes
as "an effective solution to a disease which is needlessly claiming millions
of lives." The process is made up of five elements, of which the most
important involves health workers monitoring TB sufferers' behavior to make
sure they complete their full course of medication. The treatment normally
lasts six to eight months. If patients stop before they are fully cured,
they remain infected, spreading the disease and helping to create
drug-resistant strains. A possible result, says the WHO, is that TB could
become incurable. 

Once thought to be almost eradicated in many countries, TB kills between two
and three million people annually, more than any other infectious disease in
the world. Asia accounts for about two-thirds of known cases. The disease is
most prevalent in India (over 2 million cases last year) and China (over one
million). Indonesia (443,000), Bangladesh (264,000) and Nigeria (255,000)
made up the other three countries in the "top five." China, while obviously
facing a towering challenge, is praised by the WHO for its efforts in making
DOTS available. And Vietnam (125,000 cases last year) is described as making
"excellent progress." 

But the world body warns that even countries experiencing success must stay
vigilant. If untreated, each person with TB will affect an average of 10 to
15 people each year. Like the common cold, the disease spreads through the
air. And in an age of widespread travel, no country is safe if another is
letting TB fester. "This disease is certain to spread wherever it is
ignored," says Dr. Carlyle Guerra de Macedo, former director of the
Pan-American Health Organization. "If we allow it to prosper and multiply in
any corner of the world, we do so at our own peril." 
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