Warning to junta of 'total disaster

[hlaing@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

South China Morning Post

Tuesday  July 7  1998

Burma 
Warning to junta of 'total disaster' 
WILLIAM BARNES in Bangkok 

The Burmese military regime has been warned by the chairman of an
opposition alliance that the country will "explode soon" if it continues
"sliding into a serious shortage of food and general calamity".
The alert was issued yesterday in an open letter to the chairman of the
State Peace and Development Committee, General Than Shwe, by the leader of
the National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB), Saw Bo Mya.
Political tension in Burma has risen sharply since last month's call by
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy for
parliament to be reconvened by August 21.

The ruling military junta responded last week by accusing the opposition of
planning a "head-on collision" with the authorities and restricted the
movements of her supporters.
Mr Saw Bo Mya, veteran leader of an ethnic Karen rebellion, claimed the
country's food stocks would be exhausted in three months. His letter said
the regime's own soldiers were deserting in droves "to make ends meet" and
that soon there would be no money to pay them.

"The country is edging towards total disaster. You and your colleagues will
be held responsible if that happens," he warned.

The NCUB chairman called on the regime to start talks with Ms Aung San Suu
Kyi, reconvene parliament, release all political prisoners and "cease its
brutal war against ethnic minorities".

Few observers doubt that the authorities' incompetence combined with the
Asia-wide crisis has allowed the economy to deteriorate, though it is
difficult to know whether, as Mr Saw Bo Mya suggests, the population and
even the rank-and-file military are really at the end of their tether.

The US State Department said last month: "The Burmese economic situation is
grim and appears to be worsening. The Government is reported to be
virtually bankrupt."

Sanctions and the global loss of confidence in Asia have seen what was
already thin investment virtually disappear.

The currency, the kyat, has also slipped alarmingly over the past
fortnight, from about 250 to 350 to the US dollar.

"Certainly the economy has deteriorated, but the Burmese have lived on the
poverty line for years," said a diplomat in Rangoon yesterday.