VOA : BURMA / POL- GARY THOMAS (BAN

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Voice of America
DATE=8/6/98
BURMA / POL
GARY THOMAS (BANGKOK)


INTRO:  THIS WEEKEND MARKS THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BURMESE 
GOVERNMENT'S BRUTAL SUPPRESSION OF PRO-DEMOCRACY DEMONSTRATIONS. 
IT IS NOT KNOWN HOW DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS PLAN TO MARK THE OCCASION
INSIDE BURMA.  HOWEVER, AS VOA CORRESPONDENT GARY THOMAS REPORTS 
FROM BANGKOK, THE POLITICAL TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY BEEN RAISED 
BY THE RECENT CONFRONTATION BETWEEN AUTHORITIES AND PRO-DEMOCRACY
LEADER AND NOBEL LAUREATE AUNG SAN SUU KYI.

TEXT:  ON THE EVE OF THE ANNIVERSARY, RANGOON IS, AS ONE WESTERN 
DIPLOMAT PUTS IT, A CITY OF FOREBODING RATHER THAN HOPE.

THE DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IS KEEPING MUM ABOUT HOW, OR IF, IT PLANS 
TO MARK THE EVENTS OF 1988, IN WHICH THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WERE 
KILLED, WOUNDED, OR IMPRISONED AS THE GOVERNMENT RUTHLESSLY 
CRUSHED A DEMOCRACY UPRISING. 

MILITARY AUTHORITIES ARE ACCUSING DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS OF 
SUBVERSIVE ACTS.  ARTICLES AND SPEECHES CARRIED THURSDAY IN THE 
GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED NEWSPAPERS SAY WHAT THEY LABEL "TRAITORS" 
ARE COLLABORATING WITH OUTSIDE POWERS TO SPREAD FALSE RUMORS 
ABOUT IMPENDING UNREST.



DIPLOMATS SAY THEY NO KNOW OF NO PLANS FOR ANY PUBLIC 
DEMONSTRATIONS.  IN A TELEPHONE INTERVIEW FROM HIS RANGOON 
OFFICE, KENT WEIDEMANN, THE HIGHEST-RANKING U-S DIPLOMAT IN 
BURMA, SAYS THE ONLY PLACE HE HAS SEEN ANYTHING SAID ABOUT 
POSSIBLE DEMONSTRATIONS IS IN THE STATE-RUN NEWS ORGANS.  THAT, 
HE SAYS, CONCERNS HIM. 

                                             // WEIDEMANN ACT //

         WHICH WORRIES ME TO THE EXTENT THAT IT HINTS OF NOT 
         SIMPLY A WARNING TO PEOPLE THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL 
         CRACK DOWN ON ANY HINT OR SIGN OF POPULAR ACTIVITY IN 
         THE STREET IN SUPPORT OF DEMOCRACY, BUT I THINK MORE 
         WORRISOME THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS PROVIDING A KIND OF 
         EXCUSE, OR SEEKING TO PROVIDE AN EXCUSE, FOR WHATEVER 
         VIOLENCE THEY MAY THEMSELVES PERPETRATE AROUND THAT 
         DATE, AT THE VERY SLIGHTEST SIGN OF ANY KIND OF 
         DEMONSTRATION IN SYMPATHY WITH OF THE COMMEMORATION OF 
         THE TENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1988 MASSACRE.

                                                   // END ACT //

POLITICAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY HIGH.  FOR THE THIRD TIME IN 
SEVERAL WEEKS, AUNG SAN SUU KYI -- WHO IS KEPT UNDER TIGHT 
RESTRICTIONS BY AUTHORITIES -- WAS STOPPED AS SHE TRIED TO TRAVEL
OUTSIDE RANGOON TO MEET WITH OFFICIALS OF HER NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR
DEMOCRACY, OR N-L-D.  A SIX-DAY STANDOFF ENDED WHEN AUTHORITIES 
FINALLY FORCED HER TO RETURN TO RANGOON.

THE CONFRONTATION OCCURRED AS FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE 
ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS -- TO WHICH BURMA WAS 
ADMITTED LAST YEAR -- WERE MEETING IN MANILA.

MOST ANALYSTS QUERIED SAY THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTION ON THIS 
OCCASION WAS SURPRISING, CONSIDERING THAT ON THE PREVIOUS TWO 
OCCASIONS, AUNG SAN SUU KYI WAS ALSO NOT ALLOWED TO PROCEED 
FURTHER, BUT THE N-L-D OFFICIALS WERE BROUGHT TO MEET HER.

THE APPARENT LACK OF A CONSISTENT POLICY TOWARDS THE DEMOCRACY 
MOVEMENT -- WHICH VARIES BETWEEN SPURTS OF OPENNESS AND SPASMS OF
REPRESSION -- REFLECTS, SAYS MR. WEIDEMANN, DIVISIONS AMONG THE 
GENERALS.

                                     // OPT WEIDEMANN ACT //

         THE REASON I THINK FOR THE SWINGS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
         EXTREMELY BRUTAL BEHAVIOR ON THEIR PART, AS WE SAW LAST 
         WEEK, AND SOMEWHAT MORE CONCILIATORY, IS THAT THERE ARE 
         ARGUMENTS IN TOP RUNGS OF THE MILITARY JUNTA HERE OVER 
         TACTICS, YOU KNOW, HOW TO BEST PRESENT THEIR IMAGE TO 
         THE OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY TO THEIR ASEAN FRIENDS AND 
         NEIGHBORS, NEARLY ALL OF WHOM HAVE CALLED ON THE 
         GOVERNMENT HERE TO STOP EMBARRASSING THE REST OF ASEAN, 
         BASICALLY, BY ITS BEHAVIOR AND TO BEGIN SOME PROCESS OF 
         POLITICAL REFORM THAT WILL RESTORE STABILITY, BOTH 
         ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY.

                                      // END OPT ACT //

THE PRECARIOUS POLITICAL SITUATION IS NOT HELPED BY THE ECONOMIC 
ONE. BURMA IS IN SEVERE ECONOMIC STRAITS, BROUGHT ON PARTLY BY 
THE ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS, AND PARTLY BY -- IN THE BELIEF OF 
WESTERN ANALYSTS -- FINANCIAL MISMANAGEMENT AND CORRUPTION BY THE
RULING GENERALS. (SIGNED)

NEB/GPT/FC

06-Aug-98 6:45 AM EDT (1045 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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