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East Asia Today : Diplomatic devel



East Asia Today
August 7th 1998 

Diplomatic developments over the years
Round Table Discussion on Diplomatic Developments for Troubled Burma

On the diplomatic front there have been some important new developments.
Aung San Suu Kyi's recent confrontation with the army on a road outside
Rangoon took place as ASEAN was meeting in Manila. There were serious
splits within ASEAN, with Thailand and the Philippines pushing for a more
aggressive policy towards Rangoon, and Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore
resisting. Tokyo has been able to follow the lead of Bangkok and Manila.
Just today (Friday) the new Japanese Foreign Minister, Masahiko Komura,
urged dialogue between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi. 

To discuss these developments East Asia Today presenter, Christopher
Gunness, was joined by Japan's Deputy Ambassador in London, Itaru Umezu,
the Burmese journalist, Aye Chang Naing, a student in Rangoon in 1988, and
Kobsak Chuttikul, Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman who Christopher first
asked what Thailand's new approach might achieve:

Kobsak Chuttikul: With Burma becoming a member of ASEAN, we need to adopt a
new code of conduct amongst the family members of ASEAN. So what we would
like to convey to the government in Rangoon is that with membership there
are certain rights, but at the same time certain responsibilities.

Christopher Gunness: Itaru Umezu does Japan support this new approach in
ASEAN, the policy of flexible engagement?

Itaru Umezu: We note with interest this policy enunciated by some of the
ASEAN countries including Thailand and the Philippines. It remains to be
seen how this policy will be fleshed out in detail, but we would hope
strongly that this kind of move will lead to the promotion of
democratisation and the improvement of the human rights situation in
Myanmar. 

Christopher Gunness: Kobsak Chuttikul, is it now fair to say that we've had
a convergence of Japanese, American, European, Thai and Filipino policy
towards Burma, and actually those countries in ASEAN, like Singapore,
Malaysia and Indonesia are actually looking increasingly isolated?

Kobsak Chuttikul: There is a convergence of views, even among the ASEAN
countries that do not really want to engage much along the lines of this
new approach. We feel that at the very least now the door has been opened,
and there is a basis for open dialogue, for discussion of issues.

Christopher Gunness: Now ultimately a solution has to come from within
Burma itself. Aye Chang Naing, are there any indications that given the
economic misery in Burma, and perhaps that the army's economic empire is
crumbling, that the army is prepared to relinquish its grip on power?

Aye Chang Naing: As long as they are getting foreign assistance, and as
long as they can survive, I don't think they're going to give up power and
negotiate with the opposition. I agree with you about the situation, and
that changes must come from inside the country, given the economic
situation and the frustration of the people after ten years of military
rule. I think what we're going to see in the next few weeks is quite
important - how people are going to organise a political movement. People
are getting very frustrated with the economic situation, with the political
deadlock between Aung San Suu Kyi and the military, and their daily life is
really suffering a lot. 

Christopher Gunness: Ambassador Umezu, we've heard from someone who's been
closely in touch with events in Burma, saying that there's huge social
problems. Have you diplomats been missing the point, fixated with the
political stalemate and diplomatic progress, and actually in the meantime
the people of Burma have been suffering?

Itaru Umezu: I fully appreciate what Mr Aye Chang Naing has said about the
situation. We're very much concerned about that, but Japan is one of the
countries that has been advocating strongly and consistently the need for a
dialogue between the government of Myanmar and the NLD, including Aung San
Suu Kyi. 

Christopher Gunness: Kobsak Chuttikul, we keep hearing about dialogue with
the NLD and the government. Clearly that is going to be some time. Have we
become fixated with this whole business of democracy, while universities in
Rangoon have been closed for the last decade virtually, and there are
serious social problems which, arguably, the diplomatic community has
ignored?

Kobsak Chittikul: Yes, but in diplomatic circles there are certain
boundaries that one cannot cross. But we try to send messages across that
boundary as it were, to convey international thinking, to convey the
thoughts of neighbouring countries, and hopefully to have a positive impact
on some of the developments within the country.

Christopher Gunness: Aye Chang Naing, isn't there a problem here, that by
ignoring social structures, or by not putting enough into developing
universities, and professional services, we've got a situation where the
Burmese army, even if it wanted to hand over power, has really got nothing
to hand over power to, unlike ,say, Indonesia and other models in Southeast
Asia?

Aye Chang Naing: No I think the first thing they should do, again, is open
a dialogue with the NLD to find a way to hand over power. As you said, the
social structure in Burma has been totally crushed since 1988. For example,
before 1988, the universities were open and all the schools were open and
the economic situation was not that bad. Since then, even though ten years
have passed, the schools have been open for a total of only two and a half
years. I mean imagine a country where the universities were open for two
and a half out of ten years. There's very little hope for the future of
Burma.

Christopher Gunness: I'd like to end by asking you all about the future.
Aye Chang Naing first of all, in ten years' time will Burma be a
functioning democracy? 

Aye Chang Naing: If power was transferred to the NLD I'm sure there would
be a democracy in Burma in ten years.

Christopher Gunness: Ambassador Umezu, in ten years' time will Burma be a
democracy of the sort that Japan would like it to be?

Itaru Umezu: The one positive thing is what was indicated by Mr. Kobsak. I
am very much encouraged by his expression that a door has been opened, that
there's open dialogue, open discussion...and I think this is one of the
merits of Myanmar being admitted to ASEAN.

Christopher Gunness: Kobsak Chuttikul, a decade from now, Burma as a
democracy?



Kobsak Chuttikul: Yes, I think so. We're quite confident about that and I
think even the present rulers of Myanmar said, at the end of the ASEAN
conference in Manila recently, that they are working towards democracy, and
a new constitution. So I think there's nothing that can prevent this.