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Reuters : ANALYSIS-Myanmar eyes on



ANALYSIS-Myanmar eyes on August 21 deadline 
11:56 p.m. Aug 10, 1998 Eastern 

By Chris Johnson 

BANGKOK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - In Myanmar, all eyes are focused on August 21
after Saturday's anniversary of a key uprising passed quietly. 

August 21 is the opposition deadline given to the country's ruling generals
for a move to democracy. 

By this date, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by 1991 Nobel
Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, wants the military government to
convene a parliament of members elected at polls in May 1990. 

The NLD won those elections by an overwhelming margin but the result was
ignored by the military. 

The military has ruled Myanmar, previously known as Burma, since 1962 and
is likely to ignore the NLD's deadline as it has ignored all the
opposition's other demands. 

But diplomats, exiles and non-governmental organisations all agree pressure
in Myanmar will build over the next two weeks and the NLD will find ways to
highlight its demands and underline its argument that change must come
soon. 

``Everyone here is expecting the tension to build as the 21st comes
closer,'' said a Yangon-based diplomat. ``The NLD play their cards very
close to their chest but they will obviously want the day to be uppermost
in people's minds.'' 

Life for many Myanmar people has been paralysed by the political standoff
in the country. Universities have been closed since December 1996, when the
authorities shut them after student unrest. 

The military has said it wants to reopen the universities this month and
published university entrance results last week. But there has been no
announcement yet and some diplomats think the institutions may remain
closed for some time. 

Some diplomats expected the NLD and other pro-democracy groups to use last
Saturday's anniversary of an uprising on August 8, 1988, of opposition
supporters against the military to campaign for the convening of
parliament. 

Opposition supporters say thousands of unarmed civilians were shot by
troops in the crackdown that followed the uprising. The government says the
death toll was only a few dozen. 

Foreign activists handed out leaflets at prominent tourist sites across
Yangon on Sunday calling on the people of Myanmar to remember the 1988
uprising -- or ``Four eights day.'' 

Eighteen activists, including six U.S. citizens, were later detained by
police and are being held pending investigation. 

The military government vowed on Monday to take action against the
activists, accusing them of trying to stir up unrest in the country. 

Saturday passed quietly and diplomats said they had heard that Suu Kyi had
requested pro-democracy supporters to do nothing to anger the military on
the anniversary. 

But tactics in the run-up to the August 21 deadline may be different,
diplomats say. By giving the government an ultimatum to convene a
parliament, the NLD has put the ball firmly in its own court and must force
the issue, they argue. 

London-based human rights pressure group Amnesty International is expecting
campaigning to be stepped up inside Myanmar and says there could be a
government reaction. 

``I think there is going to be a build-up of activity there and what we are
asking the military authorities to do is to exercise restraint, not to use
violence if there are demonstrations, not to give their troops live ammo
and basically just to allow them to peacefully demonstrate and gather,''
said Amnesty spokeswoman Donna Guest. 

She gave no hint of the kind of activity she expected but diplomats say
there is a possibility of spot demonstrations, public-relations stunts, or
Suu Kyi could use the restrictions imposed on her movements to highlight
the situation in Myanmar. 

Suu Kyi, daughter of national hero and independence campaign leader Aung
San, has done this in the past. 

Released from six years of house arrest in July 1995, Suu Kyi's movements
are monitored closely by the government and she has been prevented by
government security men from leaving Yangon on three occasions in recent
weeks. 

In the last incident at the end of July, she was stopped in her car while
travelling to visit supporters in a village outside Yangon and endured a
six-day standoff with the authorities before she was forcibly returned to
the capital. 

Although praised at the time as a brilliant publicity coup, which prompted
criticism of the Myanmar government by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright, diplomats say the confrontation was unplanned and is unlikely to
be repeated. 

Suu Kyi became ill during the ordeal from dehydration and was manhandled
during her return to Yangon when she was bruised and badly shaken,
diplomats say. The military government denies the accusation and says the
security men treated Suu Kyi well. 

The problem for the NLD is that the military government appears to have
exceptionally tight control of Myanmar. 

The military has moved swiftly in the past to stop illegal demonstrations
and Myanmar people, many of whom have never known life except under the
military, are afraid, diplomats say. 

Although poverty is widespread and financial mismanagement and the Asian
economic crisis have made life hard for ordinary people, it takes a special
set of circumstances to foment the open revolt that big demonstrations
would involve. 

``It is difficult to say whether the people will be able to put pressure on
this government to bring democracy. It seems the government has things
under control,'' said an Asian diplomat.