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BBC- East Asia Today-NLD and Milita



These are the top stories from East Asia Today.


?BURMA 1 - Democrats and generals meet 
?BURMA 2 - Aung San Suu Kyi remains blocked by military
 
NLD and Military Meet For Icebreaking Talks

News has emerged from Burma of a meeting between the Chairman of the
opposition National League for Democracy, Aung Shwe and first secretary of
the military government, Khin Nyunt. A government statement quoted Khin
Nyunt, describing the meeting as fruitful and expressing appreciation for
the NLD's participation. 

The NLD had previously said that meetings should involve its leader, Aung
San Suu Kyi. But she has just completed her first week in a van, blocked by
the military from leaving Rangoon. 

So for more details of the meeting, and its significance, East Asia Today
presenter, Christopher Gunness, called Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman,
Kobsak Chuttikul:

Kobsak Chuttikul: Apparently it was a 45-minute meeting. The authorities
described it as open, frank and cordial. It's the first in a series,
according to them. I think it's an icebreaker and we look forward to more
meetings, possibly with the involvement of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Christopher Gunness: So you think that Aung San Suu Kyi could be involved
in further meetings? Is that a real political possibility?

Kobsak Chuttikul: We hope so. If it's a series of meetings, as has been
described by the authorities there.

Christopher Gunness: To what extent do you see this as a compromise by the
NLD? Its position previously had been that the junta has to talk to Aung
San Suu Kyi herself. Now she appears to be prepared to allow Aung Shwe to
go.

Kobsak Chuttikul: We've always said that the most important thing is a
dialogue and the less preconditions attached by either side to it, the
better. We certainly, on the part of Thailand, welcome this development.

Christopher Gunness: If there is to be future dialogue, what would Thailand
like to see come out of that?

Kobsak Chuttikul: National reconciliation involving all political elements
in Burma, including all the ethnic groups. We think that would facilitate
the process of national consolidation and bring in a period of stability
and democratic progress in Burma.

Christopher Gunness: To what extent should this be seen as a sign that the
diplomatic pressures which governments like your own are applying, are
actually beginning to have some effect?

Kobsak Chuttikul: We would like to see this not as pressure but as giving
our views on things as we see and as a friend, indeed as a family member,
especially of ASEAN. I think Burma has been in ASEAN now for a year. They
should have a sense of confidence that what the other members of ASEAN say,
and what the international community says is not directed at destabilising
the situation but rather to help to find ways of moving the country forward
for the benefit of all the people there. So I think even the leadership in
Burma would like to see more prosperity, progress, and indeed peace for all
the ethnic groups in Burma. We believe they are trying to find their way
forward.
----------------------------

Is Agreement to Meet Chairman an Effort to Split NLD?


So is this a sign that the junta is now serious about breaking the
political impasse? East Asia Today presenter, Christopher Gunness, asked
Berton Levin, former American Ambassador in Rangoon:

Berton Levin: That would be the best view of the situation, the most
optimistic, and the one that I hope is the right one. But knowing Khin
Nyunt, knowing the cunningness that has been demonstrated in the past, the
determined effort to split whatever opposition exists, you can't neglect
the possibility that this is primarily an effort to split the NLD.

Christopher Gunness: You mean the junta's got Aung San Suu Kyi stuck in her
car outside Rangoon, meanwhile try and bring the rest of the leadership of
the NLD into a negotiating process?

Berton Levin: Precisely that. That has been the way they have operated over
the years. The effort to confuse, to split, to cause disarray. In the back
of your mind, one can't help entertaining some hope that conditions in
Burma have got so bad that even to this politically obtuse junta there is
some sense that something has to be done.

Christopher Gunness: What about the NLD strategy? Do you think that they
too are trying to engage the junta? Previously Aung Shwe had not gone to
see the junta. He's met them once before but he's said no, Aung San Suu Kyi
must be involved in negotiations.

Berton Levin: Hopefully the sign has come from the junta that if you talk
we'll make some concessions. But why the NLD has changed position is very
difficult to know. There is a situation there of a downward spiral in
economic circumstances, a very unhappy population and tensions are growing.
The military still seem to have the most important cards which is in the
form of guns and power. But things are percolating there and hopefully
people are coming to their senses and trying to talk their way through
that.

Christopher Gunness: Aung San Suu Kyi has called for a meeting of the
parliament elected in 1990 by the 21st August. Do you think this is the
junta trying to show itself reasonable in advance of a potential clampdown
on MPs trying to get to that meeting?

Berton Levin: You can't rule that possibility out. It's also an attempt to
isolate Aung San Suu Kyi, to show that this junta is willing to work with
some opposition elements and to depict her as an extremist. There must be
some of that in it. The question is why is the rest of the party going
along if that's what the military is out to do. Here again, one can only
hope that the other elements of the NLD have got a more positive sign from
the military and that's why they've changed their position. But we'll have
to wait to see that. Going on the past record of this military leadership,
I'm not all that optimistic.