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Asiaweek-Editorial-August 28,1998-T



Asiaweek
August 28,1998

Editorial
TEN YEARS ON
As Asia changes, so must Myanmar's junta


WITH THE EXCEPTION OF Beijing in June 1989 and Jakarta in May 1998, no
Asian upheavals of recent years were anywhere nearly as bloody as the
rioting that engulfed Yangon and other cities in Myanmar on Aug. 8-12,
1988. As many as 3,000 people were killed by the troops of Sein Lwin, who
assumed power when the 26-year dictatorship of Ne Win ended. Sein Lwin was
soon replaced by a civilian president, who was in turn ousted by a military
coup on Sept. 18. That brought to power a junta, the State Law and Order
Restoration Council - better known as SLORC.



A decade after those traumatic events, Myanmar has not been static. Nor
have things gone quite as badly as they may seem from accounts focusing on
the political standoff between the junta and democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi. Once priding itself on its autarkic "Burmese Way to Socialism,"
Myanmar has opened up economically, becoming more receptive to trade and
foreign investment. Satellite dishes abound in major cities, which means
the Burmese are no longer cut off from world affairs or, despite the
restricted local press, uninformed about their domestic matters.



The ethnic strife and civil wars that sapped so much of Myanmar's energy
for so long have almost ended. Yangon has negotiated accords with all the
minorities except the Karens (who are much weakened militarily). The
country's notorious drug lords have been curtailed. While observers may
frown that Khun Sa and his ilk were allowed to live in comfortable
"retirement," the tactic has helped reduce narcotics exports. Drug dealing
continues, but the situation is far better than it used to be. Yet Yangon
authorities continue to mistreat and oppress Muslim minorities in the
eastern Arakan region.



Joining ASEAN last year was a milestone, whose permutations were not fully
appreciated at the time. Ten years ago, Myanmar was staunchly isolationist
and about as rigidly non-aligned as any country in the world. Now Yangon
has allied itself formally with a non-communist, pro-capitalist and, in the
main, pro-democratic group that is generally attuned to the West. As a
result, Myanmar's leaders have attended hundreds of international meetings,
spoken to their counterparts from other member states and publicly defended
their own policies.



The generals in Yangon thought they had scored a diplomatic coup. By
joining ASEAN, Myanmar entered what they considered a "safe" club where
their regime would not be criticized. Membership also held prospects for
greater regional investment and trade to offset Western sanctions. The
irony is that Myanmar joined just as ASEAN's once-sacred policy of
non-interference in one another's internal affairs was breaking down. Nor
could the generals have foreseen that the Asian Crisis would deliver a
second whammy, drying up sources of regional investment.



The decade's balance sheet contains greater failures, however. SLORC's
worst legacy, though it is less publicized than the generals' failure to
move on democracy, may be the closure of the nation's secondary schools and
universities. By shutting down the campuses, the junta deprived a whole
generation of education, much as did China's leaders during the Cultural
Revolution. SLORC did deliver on its promise, made ten years ago when it
took power, to hold free and multi-party elections in 1990. Unfortunately,
it proceeded to annul the results after the National League for Democracy,
led by Suu Kyi, took most of the seats.



The junta has never adequately explained its stunning move. Later this
month, the NLD plans to hold a rump session - which the army is likely to
disperse, arguing that the body is unconstitutional. Supposedly, formal
seating awaits the final completion of a new national charter. That, of
course, is the pretext that the junta has been trotting out for nearly
eight years. It is time to end the excuses and specify a clear date for
completion of the constitution as well as fresh elections. An "open, frank
and cordial" meeting between junta and NLD leaders on Aug. 18 holds out
hope for progress.



Ten years after "restoring law and order" in Myanmar, the military regime
(which now calls itself the State Peace and Development Council) is beset
on all sides. Suu Kyi senses this, which is why she is stepping up the
pressure by setting out in her car to visit political colleagues around the
country. That puts the junta in the embarrassing position of having
forcibly to return the diminutive woman to Yangon in the lap of a burly
security guard. International impatience with the regime continues to grow.



To the generals, it must seem like their familiar world is crumbling. In
1988, Thailand was under military rule and Suharto was starting a third
decade as Indonesia's strongman. Democracy in the Philippines was fragile
and often derided by neighbors. Now it is entrenched there - and is
embraced by the Thais. Reform looms in Indonesia. For years, the junta felt
it could ignore world opinion, secure in the tacit support of its
neighbors, including China. Now, the Crisis is accelerating change
throughout Asia. Already, it has crimped economic relations. Unless the
junta dramatically alters its ways, it looks set to lose on the political
and diplomatic fronts as well.