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The Nation-EDITORIAL: The ball is b



The Nation
August 23,1998
Editorial & Opinion 

EDITORIAL: The ball is back in Suu Kyi's court


SOME have labelled the demand by Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
for the junta to convene the parliament as ''quixotic''. Quixotic because
the junta, in all likelihood, has rejected the ultimatum. And quixotic
because even if the generals were to have acceded to her demand today --
ostensibly an outlandish assumption -- they would find it difficult to
deliver. 

After all, of the 385 National League of Democracy members elected in 1990,
almost half, some 181, are either languishing in prison, forced into exile
or stripped of their parliamentary status. The rest are living under
constant harassment from the military. Only two weeks ago, the exiled All
Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) reported the death of yet another
MP in jail, the third to die in the infamous Insein Prison. 

Since the NLD issued the ultimatum in June, the ball has been sitting in
the junta's court. Now, however, it's back in NLD's. The junta is showing
that it is in no mood to meet Suu Kyi's demand. Instead it appears to have
shrewdly used Tuesday's meeting with NLD chairperson Aung Shwe to help
relieve the mounting tension ahead of the deadline. 

For Suu Kyi, the time for reckoning has come. All eyes are now on her next
step. She has vowed she will not be responsible for the ''consequences''
should the junta refuse to yield, but she did not specify what actions, if
any, she will take to force the junta to deliver. But she will have to hold
true to her threat if she is to retain her credibility. 

Over the years, Suu Kyi has exhausted much of her options. She has called
for ''unconditional'' dialogue with the junta. She did not rule out the
possibility of joining a transitional government with the ruling junta
until new polls are organised. She has more than hinted that the NLD was
ready to forgive in the event that the junta cedes power -- there would be
no retribution, she stressed. Instead, she would follow South Africa's
example of a truth and reconciliation council to help heal the wounds
inflicted over the dark years of dictatorship. 

All this, and yet little to show for it. 

''We've tried various strategies and we will keep on trying new
strategies,'' she said. Her latest stand-off with the junta, now into the
second week, has clearly riled the Burmese top brass, but so long as she
doesn't rouse the people into action, the regime wouldn't be unduly
worried. Indeed, the military has sought to dismiss the stand-off as a
camping holiday for the ''lady'' in the ''pictureque'' village of Anyarsu. 

That's clearly Suu Kyi's problem. Until and unless, there is a mass
mobilisation of her supporters, the junta will be contented to treat her
with kid gloves. 

Suu Kyi's hopes now rest with the students who are fresh from sitting
exams. This is the first time Burma's military authorities have held exams
since December 1996 after students took to the streets when three of their
colleagues were severely beaten by the police. If there is to be any
cinders of mass confrontation, it will most likely be sparked by the
students. 

There is one other factor that must be taken into account -- the
possibility of splits within the junta's ranks. Strongman Ne Win, who still
exerts influence in the military clique, is reportedly on his deathbed. His
death could herald an internecine power struggle within the already divided
military. This could provide an opening for the opposition. On the other
hand, the junta is itself actively seeking to drive a wedge between Suu Kyi
and others in the NLD. 

Last Monday, Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon pointed out that
the Burmese people themselves would have to take the initiative to bring
change. Indeed in any struggle, outsiders play at best a limited role.
Revolution does not happen by remote control. And without the Burmese
masses clamouring for the junta's downfall, change will not come, however
much we wish. 

As for international pressure, while it is not immediately clear how
effective it has been, more can still be done. Siazon argued that non-Asean
countries, being not inside the ''house'', had to shout to be heard, while
Asean countries only just had to whisper to the Burmese regime. 

Perhaps Asean countries should try shouting instead. And Suu Kyi, too, will
have to shout. Only then will the junta listen. 



The Nation