The BurmaNet News: August 24, 1998

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 "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: August 24, 1998
Issue #1080

HEADLINES:
==========
BKK POST: OPPOSITION "WILL CONVENE PARLIAMENT" 
AFP: MOVE TO CONVENE PARLIAMENT ILLEGAL: JUNTA 
BKK POST: DEPORT NLD CHIEF: PAPER 
SCMP: AUNG SAN SUU KYI SET FOR TALKS COMPROMISE 
SPDC: INFORMATION SHEET NO. A-0574(I) 
BKK POST: ECONOMIC DECLINE NOT A CAUSE OF DOWNFALL - YET 
THE NATION (EDITORIAL): THE BALL IS BACK IN SUU KYI'S COURT 
REUTERS: MYANMAR DISSIDENTS START BANGKOK HUNGER STRIKE
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THE BANGKOK POST: OPPOSITION "WILL CONVENE PARLIAMENT" 
22 August, 1998  AP 

ANALYSTS PREDICT NEW, MASSIVE CONFRONTATION

Aung San Suu Kyi's political party said yesterday it would call parliament
to convene, the most direct challenge to the authority of the military
government it has ever attempted.

Yesterday was the deadline the party had set for the military government to
convene the parliament elected in 1990.

The military said on Thursday it would do no such thing.

"Failure to hold a parliament session by the authorities amounts to
ignoring the wishes of the people," the party statement said, adding it was
now the duty of the NLD and elected candidates from other parties to convene.

"Hence, the NLD has announced it will call a parliament consisting of
ethnic and elected representatives in the near future," the statement said.

Many ethnic groups, in rebellion against the military government at the
time, had no chance to participate in the 1990 vote.

Rangoon-based analysts said they expected the statement would spark a major
confrontation with the government resulting in arrests of NLD members,
perhaps even its leadership.

The military government has in the past launched massive arrests against
NLD members elected in the 1990 poll as a means of preventing them from
gathering at Mrs Suu Kyi's Rangoon home for party meetings.

Justifying the arrests, the military accused the NLD of attempting to set
up a parallel government, an action it called unlawful.

Mrs Suu Kyi countered that since the NLD was elected to power, it was the
military who had set up a parallel government.

As NLD leaders issued the statement, Mrs Suu Kyi was spending her 10th day
in her car 32 kilometres outside Rangoon in a protest over the military's
restrictions on her right to travel freely outside the capital.

The NLD has said Mrs Suu Kyi's health is failing after 10 days of living in
her van.

She was stopped at a police checkpoint for the fourth time in two months
last Wednesday as she and colleagues attempted to travel to the city of
Bassein to meet parliamentarians from her party.

Mrs Suu Kyi has offered to end the protest and return to Rangoon if the
military releases party members imprisoned since May and jailed
parliamentarians.

Of the 385 NLD members elected in 1990, 181 are either in jail; have died,
been forced into exile, been stripped of their lawmakers status by the
military-controlled election commission or been forced to resign from the
party.

The rest are living under intense harassment from the government, the party
says.

The government has insisted the 1990 vote was for delegates to a
constitutional convention and has said no parliament can be called until a
new charter is written.

The NLD said yesterday there was no provision in the military-promulgated
election laws that a constitution had to be in place before the parliament
could meet and added it was the job of the elected lawmakers to write the
constitution.

The military convened a constitutional convention in 1992 in which Mrs Suu
Kyi's party had only 15 percent of the seats.

The rest were given to people appointed by the military.

The constitution they have been drafting, but have yet to finish, gives the
military the leading role in politics and bars Mrs Suu Kyi from public
office. The NLD pulled out of the convention in 1995.

Protests against the military's failure to convene parliament took place in
several cities around the world including Bangkok, Tokyo and were expected
in Washington later yesterday.

Thailand yesterday called for dialogue between Burma's military government
and the opposition, saying it offered moral support to both sides.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sukhumbhand Paribatra said Thailand was closely
watching the standoff between Mrs Suu Kyi and the military.

"The Thai government is giving moral support to all factions -- both to the
Myanmar government and the NLD and we are continuously supporting efforts
for dialogue without pre-conditions," he said.

Mr Sukhumbhand will travel to Rangoon tomorrow to commemorate the 50th
anniversary of Thai-Burma relations.

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AFP: MYANMAR OPPOSITION MOVE TO CONVENE PARLIAMENT ILLEGAL: JUNTA
23 August, 1998 

YANGON, Aug 23 (AFP) - Myanmar's junta Sunday said the opposition National
League for Democracy's (NLD) decision to convene its own parliament was
illegal.

"Such a move by any individual political party would be in contravention of
Myanmar law and seems designed to derail the ongoing discussions between
the government and the NLD," a junta spokesman said in a statement.

The NLD, led by Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, Friday said it would
convene the parliament elected in 1990 in polls which were won in a
landslide by opposition forces. The junta has since refused to relinquish
power.

Senior NLD and junta officials held talks last Tuesday for the first time
this year but neither side made any details public.

Sunday's comment was the first official reaction to the NLD announcement on
convening parliament.

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THE BANGKOK POST: DEPORT NLD CHIEF: PAPER 
22 August, 1998  AP 

A state-run newspaper said opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi should be
expelled from Burma and her National League for Democracy banned, as the
military refused to meet the party's demand to convene parliament.

"The NLD has broken many existing laws, therefore the NLD should be
declared illegal and she should be deported," the commentary in the
state-run Mirror Daily said.

"Only after she is deported can the government continue with its nation
building task, the people can go about their business peacefully and the
price of consumer goods can come down," it said.

Meanwhile, more than a hundred Burmese students protested outside the
country's embassy in Bangkok, and said 30 of them would begin a hunger
strike today until the military convened parliament. 

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SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: AUNG SAN SUU KYI SET FOR TALKS COMPROMISE 
22 August, 1998 by William Barnes 

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi might agree not to attend opening
negotiations with the military junta to break the impasse over political
talks, opposition sources said yesterday.

Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), said yesterday it would
convene a "People's Parliament" within a few days.

The junta predictably ignored last night's deadline set by the NLD for a
parliament to be convened.

The NLD said the military Government had ignored the desires of the Burmese
people by failing to convene a parliament.

The NLD won a general election in May 1990 by a big margin but the result
was ignored by the military.

Ms Aung San Suu Kyi spent her 10th day sitting in a van in a country lane
outside Rangoon to protest against the regime's refusal to let her meet
party members outside the capital.

Her supporters are now worried that she is risking her health by continuing
her fifth such protest in two months.

The All Burma Students' Democratic League sent a public message asking her
to conserve her health for the "paramount role" she will play in the
"important national tasks" that lie ahead.

The opposition group said it was extremely concerned by reports of her
deteriorating health.

The military appears concerned that if Ms Aung San Suu Kyi is allowed to
travel freely, she may be in a better position to announce the formation of
a more legitimate government.

The ruling generals claim parliament can only sit after a new constitution
is drawn up, which analysts believe will emasculate opposition parties.

The NLD has until now rejected the regime's offers of talks because the
military insists that they exclude Ms Aung San Suu Kyi.

The first exploratory meeting for a year between the two sides held earlier
this week ended inconclusively, with the NLD again insisting it must have
the right to pick its own team.

"Everybody knows that the junta is scared to talk. But she does not want to
appear unreasonable. She will compromise if that means that political
negotiations can start," a senior member of the Burmese opposition in exile
said.

The thinking is that if the NLD can break the deadlock and open talks
without Ms Aung San Suu Kyi at the table, it would save military "face".

Yet the party also will make it clear that her absence is only temporary.

The state-controlled media has been - even by its own rich standards -
unusually abusive towards Ms Aung San Suu Kyi this week.

But a commentary that ran in all three newspapers also hinted at an opening:

"If she had a clear and objective view of holding a dialogue with the
Government . . . the Government will wholeheartedly welcome her approach to
participate in the national task," the commentary said.

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SPDC: INFORMATION SHEET NO. A-0574(I) 
23 August, 1998 from <OKKAR66129@xxxxxxx> 

MYANMAR INFORMATION COMMITTEE, YANGON

(3)	Government of Myanmar Movesto Protect Aung San Suu Kyi's Safety,
Freedom of Movement

Ms. Suu Kyi, along with a male companion and two chauffeurs, left Yangon on
12th August to visit associates in Pathein. Due to threats of violence,
however, travel by prominent persons to some parts of the country is
inadvisable at this time. Ms. Suu Kyi is the daughter of Myanmar national
hero General Aung San, who led Myanmar's fight for independence from
Britain during World War Two.

The Karen National Union, an armed insurgent separatist force, has
threatened in recent weeks to use guerrilla violence to achieve its aims.
Government analysts believe those threats may include attacks on Aung San
Suu Kyi, aimed at creating political instability in Myanmar.

The Government of Myanmar will take all necessary action to protect Ms. Suu
Kyi from these threats, while also safeguarding her human rights, including
the right to freedom of movement, as much as possible.

The Government of Myanmar has the responsibility of protecting all of its
citizens from acts of political violence from terrorist organizations. As
the recent bombings in Africa indicate, terrorism is a very real threat in
the modern world, and Governments around the world must work together to
prevent such acts of violence.

To ensure the health and safety of  Ms. Suu Kyi and her companions, Ms. Suu
Kyi's personal physicians have been given full access to her at any time
and the government is still continuing to provide an ambulance and a
medical team on stand-by exclusively for their use. While they are
continuing their stay at Anyarsu village food, water, clothing and other
amenities have been made available from the government as well as other
private sources.

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THE BANGKOK POST: ECONOMIC DECLINE NOT A CAUSE OF DOWNFALL - YET 
22 August, 1998 by David Brunnstrom 

Burma's economy is ailing and many of its people are suffering hardships,
but few analysts expect the sort of widespread social unrest that could
bring down the military government - at least not for now.

Despite rosy official government figures, economic growth has slowed in the
past two years due to mismanagement and infrastructure inadequacies and the
slowdown has been exacerbated by Asia's financial crisis.

The government now has to wrestle with a host of problems, including
soaring inflation, a plummeting currency and foreign reserves so low there
is insufficient money to buy spare parts for power generation, resulting in
widespread power cuts.

Rangoon-based diplomats said recent independent estimates put foreign
reserves as low as two weeks of exports - perhaps $100 million or less.

Diplomats and economists in the country estimate Burma's inflation is at
least 50 percent for domestic goods and more than a 100 percent for
imports, while the market rate for the kyat has fallen from around 100 to
the dollar two years ago to as low as 420 in recent days.

Rice prices have soared along with those of other staples such as cooking
oil, they said. "I think right now a lot of people are wondering where
their next meal is coming from," said a Rangoon-based diplomat.

However, another commented: "If the question is "at what point does this
lead to public unrest," then I think you can over play it. People here have
been used to suffering a lot and it would take some sort of trigger, some
sort of really bad judgment by the government to produce that.'

Ten years ago chronic economic difficulties following a quarter century of
socialist mismanagement led to a nationwide uprising for democracy in the
country.

The trigger that turned widespread discontent into open mass revolt then
was a government decision to take banknotes out of circulation without
compensation.

The military crushed the uprising and took direct control in September
1988, killing several thousand people according to most independent
estimates. It has since sought to justify its tight grip on power by
pledging economic progress.

In recent months, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main
opposition group to emerge from the uprising, has stepped up the pace of
its campaign for political change.

The party's charismatic leader Aung San Suu Kyi has staged widely
publicised passive protests that have highlighted both a lack of basic
freedoms as well as its demand for the convening of a parliament of members
elected in polls eight years ago.

The NLD won the poll by a landslide but the military ignored the result.
Diplomats consider it highly unlikely it will heed the opposition demands
now, despite the economic problems.

However, an economist said mounting economic woes could be troublesome as
government backers were not immune. "For any government of this nature,
this kind of situation will not immediately threaten them," he said. "But
when your access to revenue starts to dwindle your capacity to keep your
own constituency happy becomes less and less.'

Burma's economy is commodity based and reliant on exports of rice pulses
and prawns. The sources said the rice crop had been hit by floods for two
years and by drought this year.

The economist estimated drought would result in a 20-25 percent crop loss
in the central growing region and the first diplomat said this would leave
no rice surplus for export.

The sources said the government had apparently already taken advances on up
to five years' revenue from another much touted foreign exchange earner - a
gas pipeline to Thailand from the Gulf of Martaban.

Burma remains the world's leading opium producer and the sources said
income from narcotics remained a fall back despite the stated government
policy of eradicating the problem. "It has taken some initiatives to solve
the narcotics problem," the economist said. "How much is for show and how
much is for real, we don't know, but it seems there are some unexplained
sources of income that keep them going.'

While few expect radical political changes any time soon, some say the
economic crunch could prompt gradual shifts and perhaps more willingness to
compromise with the opposition. "I think the government has started to feel
the pinch and there is the possibility that that will make it a little more
pragmatic," the first diplomat added.

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THE NATION: THE BALL IS BACK IN SUU KYI'S COURT 
23 August, 1998 

EDITORIAL

SOME have labelled the demand by Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
for the junta to convene the parliament as ''quixotic''. Quixotic because
the junta, in all likelihood, has rejected the ultimatum. And quixotic
because even if the generals were to have acceded to her demand today --
ostensibly an outlandish assumption -- they would find it difficult to
deliver.

After all, of the 385 National League of Democracy members elected in 1990,
almost half, some 181, are either languishing in prison, forced into exile
or stripped of their parliamentary status. The rest are living under
constant harassment from the military. Only two weeks ago, the exiled All
Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) reported the death of yet another
MP in jail, the third to die in the infamous Insein Prison.

Since the NLD issued the ultimatum in June, the ball has been sitting in
the junta's court. Now, however, it's back in NLD's. The junta is showing
that it is in no mood to meet Suu Kyi's demand. Instead it appears to have
shrewdly used Tuesday's meeting with NLD chairperson Aung Shwe to help
relieve the mounting tension ahead of the deadline.

For Suu Kyi, the time for reckoning has come. All eyes are now on her next
step. She has vowed she will not be responsible for the ''consequences''
should the junta refuse to yield, but she did not specify what actions, if
any, she will take to force the junta to deliver. But she will have to hold
true to her threat if she is to retain her credibility.

Over the years, Suu Kyi has exhausted much of her options. She has called
for ''unconditional'' dialogue with the junta. She did not rule out the
possibility of joining a transitional government with the ruling junta
until new polls are organised. She has more than hinted that the NLD was
ready to forgive in the event that the junta cedes power -- there would be
no retribution, she stressed. Instead, she would follow South Africa's
example of a truth and reconciliation council to help heal the wounds
inflicted over the dark years of dictatorship.

All this, and yet little to show for it.

''We've tried various strategies and we will keep on trying new
strategies,'' she said. Her latest stand-off with the junta, now into the
second week, has clearly riled the Burmese top brass, but so long as she
doesn't rouse the people into action, the regime wouldn't be unduly
worried. Indeed, the military has sought to dismiss the stand-off as a
camping holiday for the ''lady'' in the ''picturesque'' village of Anyarsu.

That's clearly Suu Kyi's problem. Until and unless, there is a mass
mobilisation of her supporters, the junta will be contented to treat her
with kid gloves.

Suu Kyi's hopes now rest with the students who are fresh from sitting
exams. This is the first time Burma's military authorities have held exams
since December 1996 after students took to the streets when three of their
colleagues were severely beaten by the police. If there is to be any
cinders of mass confrontation, it will most likely be sparked by the students.

There is one other factor that must be taken into account -- the
possibility of splits within the junta's ranks. Strongman Ne Win, who still
exerts influence in the military clique, is reportedly on his deathbed. His
death could herald an internecine power struggle within the already divided
military. This could provide an opening for the opposition. On the other
hand, the junta is itself actively seeking to drive a wedge between Suu Kyi
and others in the NLD.

Last Monday, Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon pointed out that
the Burmese people themselves would have to take the initiative to bring
change. Indeed in any struggle, outsiders play at best a limited role.
Revolution does not happen by remote control. And without the Burmese
masses clamouring for the junta's downfall, change will not come, however
much we wish.

As for international pressure, while it is not immediately clear how
effective it has been, more can still be done. Siazon argued that non-Asean
countries, being not inside the ''house'', had to shout to be heard, while
Asean countries only just had to whisper to the Burmese regime.

Perhaps Asean countries should try shouting instead. And Suu Kyi, too, will
have to shout. Only then will the junta listen.

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REUTERS: MYANMAR DISSIDENTS START BANGKOK HUNGER STRIKE 
22 August, 1998 

A group of 26 Myanmar dissidents in Thailand said on Saturday they had
begun a hunger strike to press their country's military government to allow
the convening of a democratic parliament and hand over power.

``We have set no timeframe for the hunger strike, we will call it off only
after the political situation in Burma (Myanmar) improves,'' said Zaw Wint,
a spokesman for the group.

The 26 were among about 100 Myanmar dissidents who have been camped in
front of the Myanmar embassy in Bangkok since August 3.

Most of the dissidents have been in Thailand since fleeing a bloody
crackdown on Myanmar's pro-democracy movement in 1988.

On Friday, Myanmar's opposition National League for Democracy, led by Nobel
Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, made its most defiant challenge to
military rule by saying it would shortly call a ``People's Parliament.''

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