Reuters-ANALYSIS-Opposition, milita

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ANALYSIS-Opposition, military in Myanmar end-game 
01:46 a.m. Sep 06, 1998 Eastern 

By David Brunnstrom 

BANGKOK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Fed up with the ruling military's refusal to
recognise election results eight years ago, opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi has vowed to convene a ``People's Parliament'' this month. 

Political analysts fear a showdown is looming, since the generals have
called this a challenge ``no government in the world would accept.'' 

The military have warned that her National League for Democracy could be
declared illegal if it carries out its vow. Ominously, the government has
also warned that the armed forces would not stand idly by if the NLD
attempted to stir up unrest. 

``It's like two trains hurtling towards each other on the same track,''
said a diplomat in the Myanmar capital Yangon. ``We are clearly heading for
some kind of showdown, the only question is how bad it turns out to be.'' 

``It's quite worrying,'' another said. ``We could be set for a
confrontation that might degenerate.'' 

The standoff comes 10 years after a nationwide uprising for democracy that
the military crushed killing thousands of people, according to most
independent estimates. 

In recent weeks, the government has also had to contend with a resurgent
student movement, which last week staged the biggest campus protests in
years. 

While the students at Yangon Institute of Technology largely stuck to
demands related to dire educational conditions, they also shouted
anti-government slogans. In similar protests last month, Yangon University
students expressed support for the NLD vow to call parliament. 

The NLD denies links to the campus protests, but supports student demands.
The party has been close to the students ever since the uprising, which
grew out of campus protests. 

The ties are evident in their similar red protest banners -- the students'
emblazoned with a ``fighting peacock'' with its tail raised and NLD's with
a ``sleeping peacock,'' its tail lowered. 

Diplomats said there was no sign yet that the protests might escalate into
the sort of popular uprising seen a decade ago, despite worsening economic
conditions and increasing hardships for the majority of ordinary people. 

``But that is not to say that what is happening with the students now can't
be sparked into something more political,'' one said. 

Diplomats said the most likely scenario was that the military would carry
out its threat to outlaw the NLD. Under laws promulgated two years ago
party leaders could face jail terms of up to 20 years if this happens. 

The military has jailed hundreds of opponents since seizing power. The
opposition says that of the 392 NLD members who won seats in the 1990
election, 183 are either in jail, stripped of their seats, forced into
exile or dead. 

Suu Kyi herself was held under house arrest for six years from 1989,
despite her revered status as the daughter of the country's foremost
independence hero Aung San. The authorities continue to severely restrict
her movements. 

In the past week they have attempted to contain the student protests by
sending in riot police to shut off their campuses. A diplomat said on
Friday his embassy was trying to confirm reports that more than 100
students has been detained. 

The NLD has kept its cards close to its chest and refused to reveal exactly
when it will call parliament, but its leadership told foreign diplomats in
Yangon last week it was still willing to enter talks with the military to
ease tensions. 

Should these not occur, some diplomats speculate the NLD might be tempted
to convene parliament on September 18, the day the military seized direct
power in 1988. 

Last month NLD and military leaders held their first talks in more than a
year. But the NLD said these fell short of a formal dialogue, which could
not take place without Suu Kyi, who the generals have long refused to talk
to. 

Diplomats said the NLD told them it was looking for gestures of genuine
goodwill from the government in order to continue talks. One such gesture
would be the release of nearly 100 NLD members detained without trial since
May, they said. 

However, after a decade of military harassment, the opposition is far from
willing to compromise on its demand for recognition of its landslide win in
the 1990 election, the diplomats said. 

The military argues a constitution is needed for parliament to be formed.
Painfully slow work on a new constitution began in 1993 but has been
suspended for the past two years.