Policymakers Scratch Heads After My

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Policymakers scratch heads after Myanmar crackdown

By David Brunnstrom

BANGKOK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - A crude but effective response by Myanmar's
military to an opposition vow to call parliament has left policymakers abroad
wondering how best to push the ruling generals towards democracy. 

The opposition National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung
San Suu Kyi, said on Wednesday the military government had detained 328 of its
members since Sunday, including 71 elected representatives. 

These and earlier detentions and harassment mean the NLD, the landslide winner
of Myanmar's last election eight years ago but never allowed to govern, would
be able to muster only a handful of representatives if it tries to call
parliament this month. 

``As far as I know, they're sticking to their plan,'' said one Yangon-based
diplomat. ``But who's going to go, I don't know -- who's going to be left?'' 

The United States has said it was greatly concerned and was seeking ways to
increase pressure on Myanmar. 

Similarly, Britain said it was exploring with its European Union partners ways
to put pressure on the generals and wanted the rest of the EU, at a minimum,
to adopt Britain's position that trade or investment with Myanmar should not
be encouraged. 

Washington already maintains strict formal sanctions on the Southeast Asian
state and has urged other states to follow suit, but they have been reluctant
to do so. 

Complicating the issue is a dispute between the European Union and Japan on
one side and the U.S state of Massachusetts on the other, over its law on
business with Myanmar. 

The 15-nation EU strongly objects to the law, which sets a pricing penalty on
purchases of goods by state authorities from companies that do business with
Myanmar. 

However, the dispute did not primarily reflect disagreement over Myanmar
policy, but was rather a move to convince the United States of its
international obligations to the WTO, a European Commission source said on
Wednesday. 

``This is not a question of policy towards Burma (Myanmar). It could be any
country. It's a question of the U.S. failing to meet its international
obligations in terms of the WTO,'' he said. 

An EU ambassador in Bangkok said Europe already maintained a de facto embargo
on Myanmar at official level, but added: ``You cannot force private
businessmen to stop doing business there. 

``The last time I was in Rangoon (Yangon), I saw American businessmen, I saw
Korean and Japanese businessmen, I saw Italian and British businessmen,'' he
said. 

He dismissed the British suggestion that the European Union send a ``troika''
of ministers -- comprising the last, present and next holders of the rotating
EU presidency -- to Yangon to see Suu Kyi and other opposition leaders. 

``It's the third time they've talked about such a nonsense. The Burmese won't
accept such a troika, so what's the point of sending one? 

``We can only tell the generals we don't agree with them, but experience shows
that whenever the military is in power in a country they follow introverted
types of policies and could not care less about public opinion,'' he said. 

The diplomat in Yangon said sanctions would not be effective as long as they
were not universal. 

``Probably the most effective thing is continued quiet diplomacy, but how far
that's going to get us is hard to say. 

``Any more pressure would be not on firms to withdraw but against new
investment, but it's got to be fairly symbolic as long as it's not
universal.'' 

Activists insist sanctions are the right course of action and say pressure for
them is increasing. 

``Definitely we support stronger sanctions,'' said Debbie Stothard of the
Bangkok-based non-governmental organisation ALTSEAN. ``Quiet diplomacy hasn't
worked. It hasn't succeeded in creating the sort of dialogue it was supposed
to.'' 

``The U.S. already has sanctions against new investment and the Europeans are
talking about it,'' she said. 

``But we really need the countries in this region, even if they do not
formally impose sanctions, to use the possibility of sanctions as leverage
against the regime.'' 

06:56 09-10-98