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Reuters-ANALYSIS-Myanmar NLD strand



ANALYSIS-Myanmar NLD stranded on moral high ground 
03:39 a.m. Sep 20, 1998 Eastern 

By David Brunnstrom 



BANGKOK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Myanmar's opposition has held the moral high
ground in its long battle against military rule, but its declaration of a
parliament is likely to achieve little except further repression, analysts
say. 



While the ruling generals can expect fresh criticism at the U.N. General
Assembly next week for their recent crackdown on the opposition, they have
ignored international pressure during 10 years in power and are likely to
respond by retreating further inside a hard xenophobic shell, the analysts
said. 



Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy said
on Thursday that a 10-person committee it formed last week would act for a
parliament elected in 1990 general elections which the military never
allowed to convene. 



It named a chairman of parliament and declared laws introduced since the
military seized direct control on September 18, 1988, illegal unless
approved by the body. 



The apparently bold and defiant step, while well-timed ahead of the U.N.
session, was essentially a symbolic gesture and was seen by some analysts
as an act of desperation. 



``I think it was the only thing they could think of as a last resort,''
said Swedish journalist and Myanmar scholar Bertil Lintner. ``Some say they
did it as a means to get a dialogue with the military, but the military
isn't interested in a dialogue.'' 



The opposition acted after the military responded to its vow to call a
``People's Parliament'' this month by detaining a large number of NLD
members. 



The NLD says that since May more than 800 of its members, including 196
elected representatives, have been detained. Most have been picked up in
the past two weeks. 



A measure of the symbolism of the NLD move, which has been ridiculed by the
military, is that the man named to chair the parliament is himself among
those currently in detention. 



State newspapers have dismissed the parliament as ``bogus'' and a
government statement on Friday dripped with sarcasm. 



``It would be interesting to hear more about how this committee intends to
govern,'' it said, adding that the NLD had never put forward any specific
policy ideas. 



``While the NLD's committee puzzles over these issues, the current
government will continue to shoulder the real responsibility of governing
Myanmar.'' 



A government spokesman accused the opposition of attempting to provoke
harsh counter-measures to highlight its cause at the U.N. General Assembly,
where foreign ministers and other senior leaders are to deliver policy
statements from next week. 



Maureen Aung Thwin, Washington-based director of the Burma Project of the
Soros Foundation's Open Society Institute, said the military would want to
avoid criticism at the U.N. session and in that respect the NLD move was
well timed. 



``I think it's very difficult for the military to act now, but they may
decide to crack down again later once attention is elsewhere.'' 



Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's foremost independence leader Aung San,
was held under house arrest for six years until 1995. State media has urged
that she be deported. 



A state newspaper commentary repeated the call on Friday, saying: ``Your
offences have now harmed the people...The only words we have to say to you
are: Get Out!'' 



A week ago, state media warned that NLD deputy leader Tin Oo, another
member of the party committee, faced possible arrest, saying he had been
involved in distributing leaflets aimed at sowing discord in the military. 



Analysts say that however much the generals may want to deport Suu Kyi,
they were aware of immense practical obstacles. 



``She would refuse to get on the plane then refuse to get off it,'' said
one Yangon-based diplomat. ``They would have to carry her on and carry her
off -- what government would accept her under those circumstances?'' 



Lintner said it was possible the generals might detain all NLD leaders
except Suu Kyi, who is afforded a measure of protection as her father's
daughter, and has become an international icon in her fight for democracy. 



Josef Silverstein, a Myanmar specialist at Rutgers University in the United
States, said the main hopes for change rested on the emergence of divisions
in the army, something analysts have been searching for unsuccessfully for
decades. 



``We should really begin to see some cracks in the army because it has
nothing left to go on -- it has no popular support and hasn't achieved
anything in the past 10 years. 



``There has to be some emergence of opposition within the army in order to
break this intransigent position,'' he said.