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Asiaweek-viewpoint: Burma's Time to



ASIAWEEK   VIEWPOINT

October 2, 1998

BURMA'S TIME TO CHOOSE

A worsening economy creates an explosive situation

Aung Naing Oo is the Foreign Affairs Secretary of the All Burma
Students' Democratic Front

Ten years ago the Burmese military opened fire on me and fellow
unarmed students as we marched in Rangoon crying for human rights
and democracy. Although no real progress has been made toward those
goals, the pressure for democratization has reached a crest again
today. A major trigger of the 1988 uprising was a steep decline in
the living standards of ordinary people. Over the last decade
economic mismanagement has increased destitution and suffering.
Now, in addition to the U.S. sanctions and the pullout of
businesses under pressure from human rights groups, the Asian
economic crisis has been the final nail in the coffin of the
junta's plan for development. 

The kyat value is 50 times lower than its official rate, foreign
exchange reserves are reportedly down to one month of imports, a
number of major infrastructure projects have been discontinued,
and, in an unprecedented move, the army has been forced to reduce
basic food supplies to many units. The World Bank's announcement
recently that it would be cutting all financial ties with Burma
because the administration has been unable to service its debts for
the last six months, indicates that the economy has contracted a
terminal illness.

Two developments outside Burma have given us heart. One was the
downfall of President Suharto. For the generals who run Burma,
Suharto was an inspiration. Since 1993 their main strategy to hold
onto power has been based on the Indonesian model of dwifungsi,
where the military has a role in governing the country. The junta
received an unpleasant surprise at the recent ASEAN Ministerial
meeting with the proposal by Thailand, backed by the Philippines,
to drop the grouping's policy of non-interference in favor of
"flexible engagement". This was not endorsed, but pressure for
dialogue coming from so close to home is a new and significant
development.

For the past 10 years, the major opposition groups comprising
students, monks and workers have been attempting to organize
underground movements inside the country. Many believe that the
only hope for return to civilian rule would be another massive show
of people power. The student demonstrations that have taken place
since August 24 may well herald the start of this. The principal
fuel for the flames, however, comes from Aung San Suu Kyi, leader
of the National League for Democracy (NLD). Her recent change in
tactics giving an ultimatum to the government to convene the
parliament and when this was ignored announcing that the NLD will
convene a people's parliament  has brought tension to a new peak. 

The NLD has repeatedly called for political dialogue. The generals
have refused, maintaining that a dialogue is already being held at
the National Convention: a farcical gathering at which delegates
are only allowed to read from pre-censored papers. One delegate,
Dr. Aung Khin Sint, was even sentenced to 20 years imprisonment for
attempting to lobby other delegates. Even before the convention
began, the main principle laid down established "the military in
the leading role of national politics in the future state." Despite
its election landslide in 1990, the NLD was given only 93 out of
the 702 seats in the convention. Some time ago, after failing to
change its procedures, the NLD walked out in protest.

On several occasions the military authorities have actually met
with the NLD. However, Suu Kyi was permitted at only two of these
meetings, both while she was under house arrest in 1994. At recent
meetings, which the military rulers have referred to as dialogue,
they spent the whole session berating NLD officials for their
party's activities. The generals called on the NLD to meet with
them on August 8, refusing, however, to meet the party's top three
leaders. Understandably, the NLD turned down this offer. 

Dialogue that brings together only the junta and the NLD, however
meaningful, will never be sufficient to solve Burma#s problems. The
ethnic opposition must be included in any future settlement. Ethnic
conflict has been one of Burma's longest running and deepest rooted
problems. Minority groups make up a huge percentage of the
population, and a stable, democratic Burma cannot exist without the
inclusion of their aspirations.

The Army's refusal to talk to NLD leaders shows that it still has
no intention of discussing the real issues. In fact indications are
that the military intends to hang on till the bitter end. Troops
have been brought in from provincial areas, special riot units have
been organized, and there have been blanket arrests of opposition
members, and deployment of security forces around NLD offices. It
has even been reported that a special cell in Insein Prison has
been prepared for Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi remains defiant, and the opposition is ready to bring the
struggle to a new level. Their patience is running out, and
optimism, while not high, is higher than it has been since the 1990
election.  The tension is almost palpable and the cards seem set
for an explosion; a scenario which would be favorable for neither
party. In the words of Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma has to choose
between dialogue or utter devastation. 


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