SPDC/SLORC INTRANSIGENCE AND DIALOG

[uneoo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

/* Written Fri 2 Oct 11:00am 1998 by drunoo@xxxxxxxxxxxx in igc:reg.burma */
/* ----------------" SPDC/SLORC And Dialogue "---------------- */

SPDC/SLORC AND ITS INTRANSIGENT POSITION ON DIALOGUE
****************************************************
The SPDC/SLORC Foreign Minister, in his latest address to UNGA, openly 
refused to accept UN mediation and, hence, refuse to make reconciliation
with opposition. It is rather disappointing, to my view, the junta not
accepting a most reasonable political offer that give continued role
for current military leaders in future government.

EXTREME NERVOUSNESS IN RANGOON
*****************************
Recent arrests, as well as previous mass-arrests of opposition MPs since
May 1996, is the evidence of junta's nervousness at its current position.
The NLD, from its part, never had plans(i.e. to my knowledge) to simply
announce a parallel government or to exploit division within the military.
The NLD's conduct towards the junta, in fact, has been most magnanimous.
The courage and discipline of the NLD leadership, in the face of junta's
campaign of oppression and intimidation, have been very remarkable. 

The leadership of junta has been facing resistance and obstacles from every 
direction. Wild mood swings and inconsistencies in junta's conduct regarding
with opposition and political matters indicate the top military leadership 
has simply lost the capacity to deal with situation and may be in a stage of 
paranoid delusion. As many would have no doubt, things for junta are likely
to get even worse and, sadly, chances for a successful reconciliation with
opposition is diminishing by the day.

CONTINUING RELEVANCE TO OPENING FOR DIALOGUE
********************************************
In spite this particular difficulty of intransigence of junta's leaders, 
especially General Khin Nyunt, regarding dialogue with opposition, the NLD's
offer to opening dialogue is still relevant. This is because the NLD's offer 
for dialogue and reconciliation is directed not only at top junta leaders, 
but must be understood to have included the whole rank and file of military 
establishment. In other words, the NLD must continued to be approachable to 
all those in the military.

Normally, it is to be assumed that the leadership of an establishment, for 
example SPDC/SLORC, to respond in the best interest of its followers and 
supporters. Unfortunately, current SPDC/SLORC leadership has no ability to 
judge the situation and cannot make best possible response. Only way the 
junta know now are to use brute force--i.e. arresting all opposition 
members--and to reject any reasonable approaches--i.e. UN and international 
community offers to solve problems. The junta is also lacking sense of 
responsibility and obligation towards those having sympathy on junta, 
such as ASEAN countries. We have seen the junta's sympathizers within 
ASEAN, one after the other, disappeared from the scene as if SPDC/SLORC 
was an unlucky piece. 

ODD-MAN-OUT IN POLITICS
***********************
On evaluating the political moods of Burmese people and international 
community, the will for a change of situation in Burma is too strong. There 
is no doubt, whatever it may come next, the survival and victory of the 
pro-democracy movement. Only question is whether this SPDC/SLORC leadership 
will survive current situation and, at what cost will this junta 
disappear from Burma's political scene. As in any political situation, 
the survival of a leadership depends on its ability to cooperate with 
emerging substantive political forces. Those who stand at odd with such 
forces will simply be out of the scene sooner or later. In spite of the
SPDC/SLORC refusing to cooperate, from our part, we must continue welcoming 
for dialogue and continue with the work of enhancing the legitimacy of 
NLD and the elected parliament.

With best regards, U Ne Oo.
___________________________________________________________________
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ANALYSIS-Myanmar NLD stranded on moral high ground 
03:39 a.m. Sep 20, 1998 Eastern 
By David Brunnstrom 

BANGKOK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Myanmar's opposition has held the moral high
ground in its long battle against military rule, but its declaration of a
parliament is likely to achieve little except further repression, analysts
say. 

While the ruling generals can expect fresh criticism at the U.N. General
Assembly next week for their recent crackdown on the opposition, they have
ignored international pressure during 10 years in power and are likely to
respond by retreating further inside a hard xenophobic shell, the analysts
said. 

Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy said
on Thursday that a 10-person committee it formed last week would act for a
parliament elected in 1990 general elections which the military never
allowed to convene. 

It named a chairman of parliament and declared laws introduced since the
military seized direct control on September 18, 1988, illegal unless
approved by the body. 

The apparently bold and defiant step, while well-timed ahead of the U.N.
session, was essentially a symbolic gesture and was seen by some analysts
as an act of desperation. 

``I think it was the only thing they could think of as a last resort,''
said Swedish journalist and Myanmar scholar Bertil Lintner. ``Some say they
did it as a means to get a dialogue with the military, but the military
isn't interested in a dialogue.'' 

The opposition acted after the military responded to its vow to call a
``People's Parliament'' this month by detaining a large number of NLD
members. 

The NLD says that since May more than 800 of its members, including 196
elected representatives, have been detained. Most have been picked up in
the past two weeks. 

A measure of the symbolism of the NLD move, which has been ridiculed by the
military, is that the man named to chair the parliament is himself among
those currently in detention. 

State newspapers have dismissed the parliament as ``bogus'' and a
government statement on Friday dripped with sarcasm. 

``It would be interesting to hear more about how this committee intends to
govern,'' it said, adding that the NLD had never put forward any specific
policy ideas. 

``While the NLD's committee puzzles over these issues, the current
government will continue to shoulder the real responsibility of governing
Myanmar.'' 

A government spokesman accused the opposition of attempting to provoke
harsh counter-measures to highlight its cause at the U.N. General Assembly,
where foreign ministers and other senior leaders are to deliver policy
statements from next week. 

Maureen Aung Thwin, Washington-based director of the Burma Project of the
Soros Foundation's Open Society Institute, said the military would want to
avoid criticism at the U.N. session and in that respect the NLD move was
well timed. 

``I think it's very difficult for the military to act now, but they may
decide to crack down again later once attention is elsewhere.'' 

Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's foremost independence leader Aung San,
was held under house arrest for six years until 1995. State media has urged
that she be deported. 

A state newspaper commentary repeated the call on Friday, saying: ``Your
offences have now harmed the people...The only words we have to say to you
are: Get Out!'' 

A week ago, state media warned that NLD deputy leader Tin Oo, another
member of the party committee, faced possible arrest, saying he had been
involved in distributing leaflets aimed at sowing discord in the military. 

Analysts say that however much the generals may want to deport Suu Kyi,
they were aware of immense practical obstacles. 

``She would refuse to get on the plane then refuse to get off it,'' said
one Yangon-based diplomat. ``They would have to carry her on and carry her
off -- what government would accept her under those circumstances?'' 

Lintner said it was possible the generals might detain all NLD leaders
except Suu Kyi, who is afforded a measure of protection as her father's
daughter, and has become an international icon in her fight for democracy. 

Josef Silverstein, a Myanmar specialist at Rutgers University in the United
States, said the main hopes for change rested on the emergence of divisions
in the army, something analysts have been searching for unsuccessfully for
decades. 

``We should really begin to see some cracks in the army because it has
nothing left to go on -- it has no popular support and hasn't achieved
anything in the past 10 years. 

``There has to be some emergence of opposition within the army in order to
break this intransigent position,'' he said.