Editorial & Opinion :Sanctions on B

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Editorial & Opinion 

      REGIONAL
      PERSPECTIVE: Sanctions
      on Burma must continue

      THE deteriorating political situation in
      Burma has prompted the United Nations,
      key Western countries and European
      Community as well as Asean to look for
      ways to break the current deadlock. 

      The current United Nations General
      Assembly is preparing a resolution on
      Burma, which is expected to be harsher
      than the previous year's given the prevailing
      conditions there. The draft will be ready in a
      couple of weeks and will be deliberated in
      early November. 

      Earlier, UN Secretary-General Koffi Annan
      had appointed Malaysian veteran diplomat,
      Ismail Razali, former envoy to the UN
      headquarters in New York, as a special
      envoy to Burma. In appointing Razali,
      Annan hoped that the envoy could break the
      current stalemate and visit Burma. Before
      the UN chief settled for Razali, he
      approached the outgoing Filipino President
      Fidel Ramos for this important job, but
      Ramos declined. The name of former prime
      minister Anand Panyarachun was also
      mentioned as a possible envoy, but in the
      end Anand was not approached. 

      Annan and his UN political staff have been
      concerned with the growing suppression
      inside Burma and would like to have its
      officials inside Burma to assess the latest
      situation before the UN resolution is
      completed and have urged both sides to
      begin serious dialogue of national
      reconciliation. 

      But Burma refused to allow Razali to enter
      the country. However, of late there is an
      indication that the junta leaders would allow
      UN Secretary for Political Affairs, Alvaro de
      Soto, to visit Burma as the
      Secretary-General's representative. Annan
      needs to submit a report to the current
      session of the Commission on Human
      Rights on the situation in Burma. 

      Across the Atlantic, the European
      Community will have to decide by Oct 29 if
      the current two-year-old sanctions will
      continue or intensify. EU foreign ministers
      have already warned that they would
      impose harsher sanctions if the political
      situation there worsens and more
      opposition representatives are taken
      behind bar. The Burmese junta leaders
      have been arresting numerous opposition
      members including nearly 200 elected
      representatives. 

      As part of the effort to find a solution to the
      situation in Burma, British Minister of State,
      Derek Fatchett , has called for a two-day
      closed door meeting in London on Oct
      12-13. The meeting will be attended by top
      level officials and diplomats from EU, US,
      Japan, South Korea, Asean as well as the
      UN. It hopes to find ways to encourage both
      sides to begin a dialogue. 

      Within Asean, as co-ordinator for
      Asean-EU co-operation, Thailand
      continues to work with the EU to find a
      suitable way out so that Asean-EU
      co-operation could proceed without any
      impediments. EU refused to sign a protocol
      with Burma, Asean's newest member, that
      will permit the country to accede to the
      1980 Asean-EU agreement because of the
      human rights violations in Burma. 

      Before the just concluded German election,
      Asean had high hopes that the current
      acrimony over Burma between Asean and
      EU would end once Germany takes over
      the EU presidency from Austria next
      January. The outgoing foreign minister
      Klaus Kinkle had a good rapport with the
      Asean foreign ministers and he hoped to
      play a mediating role on both sides. He
      was instrumental in improving Asean-EU
      ties in 1994 at the Karlruhe meeting in
      Germany. Asean wished that he could
      perform the same role at the next
      Asean-EU ministerial meeting. 

      But with the new German Cabinet in the
      making, it is highly possible that the Green
      Party leader, Joschka Fischer, could
      succeed Kinkle. Fischer would have a
      different style of diplomacy and advocacy
      which could affect Bonn's stand on Burma
      and the rest of EU. 

      This subtle shift would toughen further the
      international stand on Burma, which has
      been consolidated since the bridge
      stand-off between Aung San Suu Kyi and
      the Burmese junta leaders in July. Sensing
      a more active international support and
      need to apply further pressure on the junta,
      on Sept 17 the opposition formed a
      committee to act as a new parliament with
      those who were elected in 1990, when the
      opposition won the election landslide. 

      Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has
      appealed to all democratically elected
      parliaments of the world to give due
      recognition to the committee and support
      its work. 

      If the current Asean-EU freeze continues,
      Asean will be under increased pressure to
      bring about positive changes inside Burma.
      Some of the Asean leaders have been
      concerned about the political repression
      inside Burma. They have discussed ways
      to start a dialogue between the opposition
      and the Burmese junta. 

      However, the international effort, they
      realised, would not produce any result if
      China, the country with the most influence in
      Burma, is not on board. Diplomats in
      Thailand and Jakarta believe that Asean
      can still persuade China to take part in the
      national reconciliation effort in Burma.
      Beijing has maintained strong and cordial
      relations with Rangoon. 

      Asean admitted Burma last year because it
      feared growing Chinese influence in
      Southeast Asia. The Asean leaders thought
      that bringing Burma into Asean would help
      contain China's southward influence. But
      that has not happened. In fact, the Asean
      concern remains there, even though Beijing
      has improved ties with Asean by leaps and
      bounds. 

      If the international support for Suu Kyi
      remains solid, including possible
      recognition of her new committee, pressure
      on Asean will continue to grow to improve
      the situation in Burma either on its own or
      with China's co-operation. 

      BY KAVI CHONGKITTAVORN