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Brussels/Total /help please



So now the Wall Street Journal Europe is pushing Total stock as a "buy"
in big black bold print("A Vote for Total") and this just after it lost
a couple of billions US$ off its total share value, within the last two
weeks over the PetroFina deal. Thats market talk, up and down, it sells
the newspaper and that's the publishing business of business news.

An article in the Wall Street Journal Europe edition Wednesday Dec 16
1998 (Professional Stock Pickers Turn to Forgotten Sectors, 'Investment
Dartboard', p 13,20) quotes a stock analyst Christina Roulet, at Banque
Nagelmackers, in Brussels, Beglium, touting Total France stock as a buy.
Ms Roulet, who looks more like a teen cheerleader (whoops! hold the
insults, I got nothing against teens or cheerleaders, apart from the the
other etchy portrait sketches in the newspaper, she even looks sane, but
its still a wonder how the WSJ Europe picked her to flag Total stock.
Would someone please find the honorable Ms Roulet's address and
telephone number, and her company Nagelwhat?-Nagelmackers (that's right)
so we can write her, and send her information on Burma. Obviously she
either isnt informed, or could care less. For now, lets assume she is
not informed, and, inform her. Then, should she care less, perhaps we
may have more to talk about. And perhaps, if we have good contact with
her, then she may proffer information on Total, that we don't know about
yet. Hey, the day the WSJ article went to press, Total stock rose 4%,
then up again 1.9% the next day. Whatever, that's not the issue. She's
probably expecting over at least over a 20% increase in Total's stock
before next May.  

extract from WSJ Europe: "A Vote for Total. Ms Roulet of BAnque
Nagelmackers is taking over for her boss, three-time contestant Marc
Moles de Bailley. Her choice is French oil group Total SA, a company
that has been hammered by unhappy investors since announcing its $11.8
billion acquisition of Belgium's PetroFina SA earlier this month. On top
of that, oil prices keep sliding, cutting into the firm's profitability.
So why Total?
Ms. Roulet believes that investors are overreacting to the PetroFina
deal and its headline premium of 37% over PetroFina's share price. She
estimates the Belgian company had been undervalued compared to its peers
by between 25% and 30%. Take that into account and it is less than the
15% premium British Petroleum paid for Amoco, she says. "It's not really
12%," she adds. "Its 12% or less."
Unlike some investors, she isnt troubled by the foothold the PetroFina
acquisition is giving Total in the petrochemical business. The French
firm announced a few years ago that it was to exit that business. Bu
PetroFina's Antwerp facility is one of the most powerful in Europe, she
notes.
Wth oil prices near a 12-year low, Total also isnt suffering as much as
its rivals. Total's break-even point is about $10 a barrel, or slightly
below current market prices, she says. Many other companies are
experiencing losses. 
Finally, Total itself could become a takeover candidate as the
consolidation in the oil industry continues, Ms. Roulet says. She
predicts the share price could rise 15% or more over the next six
months. Total rose 4% to 577 francs ($104.36) on Tuesday, up 22 francs
in Paris trading."