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United States/Myanmar



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Subject: United States/Myanmar 
Author:  <alert@xxxxxxxxxxxx > at internet
Date:    1/21/99 7:14 PM


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STRATFOR, "Among the firms making the biggest splash" in the field of open
source intelligence. Time magazine, January 25, page 48
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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
January 22, 1999
U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
Summary
U.S. Representative Tony Hall, following a visit to Myanmar, said that Aung
San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD),
should not be able to veto humanitarian aid to Myanmar. Hall, a Democrat
from Ohio, made the statement in Thailand on January 17 after his visit to
Myanmar where he met separately with both the ruling State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) secretary general Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt
and Suu Kyi. Hall's statements, which marginalizes Suu Kyi's role in
influencing Myanmar's international relations, signal a United States
foreign policy initiative to avoid further conflict in the region. In
Myanmar, it would appear that, at least for now, the U.S. is supporting
stability over democracy.

Analysis

U.S. Representative Tony Hall visited Myanmar from January 11-14, and met
with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition National League
for Democracy (NLD), and Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, secretary general
of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Following the
visit, Hall spoke in Bangkok, where he called for increased worldwide
humanitarian aid to Myanmar. Hall also spoke of his meetings with Suu Kyi
and Khin Nyunt. He said Suu Kyi's opposition to foreign aid to Myanmar,
which she says is just serving to prop up the military junta, should not
stop NGOs and other humanitarian aid suppliers from operating in Myanmar.
He further said that Khin Nyunt had assured him that the SPDC was dealing
gently with the opposition. Hall's comments seem to indicate a shift in
U.S. policy. The U.S., while not actually endorsing the SPDC, is backing
further away from Suu Kyi and the NLD. While this seems contrary to U.S.
foreign policy elsewhere, a closer examination reveals the overriding
reason for the shift, a desire for stability in the area.

During the past year, tension between the NLD and the SPDC has been heating
up. The SPDC has charged that the NLD is closely tied to ethnic rebels.

Hundreds of NLD members in the past few months have resigned, having been
pressured to do so by the ruling junta. In response, the NLD has filed suit
against the SPDC for having allegedly coerced its members to resign. Hall's
visit to Myanmar is a second attempt by the U.S. to broker negotiations
between the two parties. It comes just a few months after a failed
U.S.-backed UN initiative to settle the dispute between the SPDC and the
NLD in Myanmar by offering World Bank funding in exchange for talks between
the two groups. The initiative was rejected soundly by Suu Kyi, who opposes
all forms of foreign aid to Myanmar until the SPDC hands over power to the
NLD.

Well known for his support of humanitarian aid and human rights,
Representative Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, favors such initiatives in such
troubled countries as Sudan, North Korea, and Indonesia. During the last
year, he has visited both Sudan and North Korea to promote humanitarian aid
and constructive engagement. Hall is also close to President Bill Clinton,
spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining him at a
Washington D.C. soup kitchen in the President's first public appearance
after his impeachment in December 1998. His past pro-human rights and
humanitarian record make Hall a prime tool for the U.S. to announce such a
startling change in policy.

Before going to Myanmar, Hall was already giving ground to the SPDC,
saying, "We will be talking not only about human rights, but I also want to
give the government of Burma a chance to talk about their concerns." He
also downplayed the effectiveness of sanctions in dealing with
non-democratic regimes, claiming that sanctions almost always end up
hurting the people they are trying to protect. Of his meeting with Khin
Nyunt, Hall quoted the general as saying, "We are gentle and lenient with
the opposition."

Hall had fewer kind words describing his meeting with Suu Kyi. He said her
isolation had caused her to be out of touch with the real problems facing
Myanmar. In reference to her call for all humanitarian aid agencies to deal
with the NLD instead of the SPDC, he indicated that her demand had caused
many NGOs to leave the country rather that get mired in political turmoil.

Hall remarked that Suu Kyi should not have control over aid. He said, "I
would not say that she should have veto power at all, because once you
start to do that and you start to have a precedent then you are going to
have problems in other countries and that precedent should not be started
in Burma."

While it may seem surprising that the U.S. would be supporting the military
junta in Myanmar over the oppressed, democratically elected opposition
party, democracy is not the only issue on the table. There are hotspots and
potential conflicts flaring up throughout Asia. China and the Philippines,
North Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand are just a few. The
U.S. is already overextended militarily around the world, and has been
dialing back its involvement in Asian disputes. It does not want to see the
situation in Myanmar get worse. Geographically, Myanmar controls the
entrance to the Andaman Sea, at the mouth of the Straits of Malacca.

Myanmar also shares long borders with Thailand, China, and the India. It is
the buffer between South Asia and the Indian subcontinent. As the back door
to Asia, it must remain, if not an ally of the U.S., then at least a stable
nation.

It is interesting to contrast this with the U.S. policy toward Malaysia,
where the U.S. backing of the reform movement is not politically but rather
economically motivated. With Malaysia trying to lead South Asia on an
economic path contrary to U.S. views, Vice President Al Gore stepped in and
added fuel to the reformasi fire. Myanmar, on the other hand, has little
economic significance for the U.S., and the current regime would never let
the U.S. use its country as a rear entrance into China, nevertheless it can
serve as a buffer between nations deemed more important to U.S. interests.

The U.S. has looked at the situation in Myanmar and has seen the regime
rapidly dismantle the NLD. With the possible deportation of Suu Kyi not far
away, the U.S. must make a move. In the past, the U.S. offered moral
condemnation of the junta with little more than sanctions to reinforce its
position. The U.S. realizes that it cannot handle - let alone produce - any
more destabilizing factors in the region at this time, and with its
confidence in Suu Kyi waning, it has now made this overture to the SPDC.
Should Myanmar decide to deport Suu Kyi, the U.S. would quickly offer her
asylum; but for now, we believe that the U.S. will back off of Myanmar, so
long as the country remains relatively stable.

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