U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to

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Subject: U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar

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Global Intelligence Update 
Red Alert 
January 22, 1999
U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
Summary
U.S. Representative Tony Hall, following a visit to Myanmar, said 
that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League 
for Democracy (NLD), should not be able to veto humanitarian aid 
to Myanmar. Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, made the statement in 
Thailand on January 17 after his visit to Myanmar where he met 
separately with both the ruling State Peace and Development 
Council (SPDC) secretary general Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt 
and Suu Kyi. Hall's statements, which marginalizes Suu Kyi's role 
in influencing Myanmar's international relations, signal a United 
States foreign policy initiative to avoid further conflict in the 
region. In Myanmar, it would appear that, at least for now, the 
U.S. is supporting stability over democracy.
Analysis
U.S. Representative Tony Hall visited Myanmar from January 11-14, 
and met with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition 
National League for Democracy (NLD), and Lieutenant General Khin 
Nyunt, secretary general of the ruling State Peace and 
Development Council (SPDC). Following the visit, Hall spoke in 
Bangkok, where he called for increased worldwide humanitarian aid 
to Myanmar. Hall also spoke of his meetings with Suu Kyi and Khin 
Nyunt. He said Suu Kyi's opposition to foreign aid to Myanmar, 
which she says is just serving to prop up the military junta, 
should not stop NGOs and other humanitarian aid suppliers from 
operating in Myanmar. He further said that Khin Nyunt had assured 
him that the SPDC was dealing gently with the opposition. Hall's 
comments seem to indicate a shift in U.S. policy. The U.S., while 
not actually endorsing the SPDC, is backing further away from Suu 
Kyi and the NLD. While this seems contrary to U.S. foreign policy 
elsewhere, a closer examination reveals the overriding reason for 
the shift, a desire for stability in the area.
During the past year, tension between the NLD and the SPDC has 
been heating up. The SPDC has charged that the NLD is closely 
tied to ethnic rebels. Hundreds of NLD members in the past few 

months have resigned, having been pressured to do so by the 
ruling junta. In response, the NLD has filed suit against the 
SPDC for having allegedly coerced its members to resign. Hall's 
visit to Myanmar is a second attempt by the U.S. to broker 
negotiations between the two parties. It comes just a few months 
after a failed U.S.-backed UN initiative to settle the dispute 
between the SPDC and the NLD in Myanmar by offering World Bank 
funding in exchange for talks between the two groups. The 
initiative was rejected soundly by Suu Kyi, who opposes all forms 
of foreign aid to Myanmar until the SPDC hands over power to the 
NLD.
Well known for his support of humanitarian aid and human rights, 
Representative Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, favors such 
initiatives in such troubled countries as Sudan, North Korea, and 
Indonesia. During the last year, he has visited both Sudan and 
North Korea to promote humanitarian aid and constructive 
engagement. Hall is also close to President Bill Clinton, 
spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining 
him at a Washington D.C. soup kitchen in the President's first 
public appearance after his impeachment in December 1998. His 
past pro-human rights and humanitarian record make Hall a prime 
tool for the U.S. to announce such a startling change in policy.
Before going to Myanmar, Hall was already giving ground to the 
SPDC, saying, "We will be talking not only about human rights, 
but I also want to give the government of Burma a chance to talk 
about their concerns." He also downplayed the effectiveness of 
sanctions in dealing with non-democratic regimes, claiming that 
sanctions almost always end up hurting the people they are trying 
to protect. Of his meeting with Khin Nyunt, Hall quoted the 
general as saying, "We are gentle and lenient with the 
opposition."
Hall had fewer kind words describing his meeting with Suu Kyi. He 
said her isolation had caused her to be out of touch with the 
real problems facing Myanmar. In reference to her call for all 
humanitarian aid agencies to deal with the NLD instead of the 
SPDC, he indicated that her demand had caused many NGOs to leave 
the country rather that get mired in political turmoil. 
Hall remarked that Suu Kyi should not have control over aid. He 
said, "I would not say that she should have veto power at all, 
because once you start to do that and you start to have a 
precedent then you are going to have problems in other countries 
and that precedent should not be started in Burma."
While it may seem surprising that the U.S. would be supporting 
the military junta in Myanmar over the oppressed, democratically 
elected opposition party, democracy is not the only issue on the 
table. There are hotspots and potential conflicts flaring up 
throughout Asia. China and the Philippines, North Korea, 
Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand are just a few. The 
U.S. is already overextended militarily around the world, and has 
been dialing back its involvement in Asian disputes. It does not 
want to see the situation in Myanmar get worse. Geographically, 
Myanmar controls the entrance to the Andaman Sea, at the mouth of 

the Straits of Malacca. Myanmar also shares long borders with 
Thailand, China, and the India. It is the buffer between South 
Asia and the Indian subcontinent. As the back door to Asia, it 
must remain, if not an ally of the U.S., then at least a stable 
nation.
It is interesting to contrast this with the U.S. policy toward 
Malaysia, where the U.S. backing of the reform movement is not 
politically but rather economically motivated. With Malaysia 
trying to lead South Asia on an economic path contrary to U.S. 
views, Vice President Al Gore stepped in and added fuel to the 
reformasi fire. Myanmar, on the other hand, has little economic 
significance for the U.S., and the current regime would never let 
the U.S. use its country as a rear entrance into China, 
nevertheless it can serve as a buffer between nations deemed more 
important to U.S. interests.
The U.S. has looked at the situation in Myanmar and has seen the 
regime rapidly dismantle the NLD. With the possible deportation 
of Suu Kyi not far away, the U.S. must make a move. In the past, 
the U.S. offered moral condemnation of the junta with little more 
than sanctions to reinforce its position. The U.S. realizes that 
it cannot handle - let alone produce - any more destabilizing 
factors in the region at this time, and with its confidence in 
Suu Kyi waning, it has now made this overture to the SPDC. Should 
Myanmar decide to deport Suu Kyi, the U.S. would quickly offer 
her asylum; but for now, we believe that the U.S. will back off 
of Myanmar, so long as the country remains relatively stable.

Note
Following yesterday's report, a number of our readers noted, and 
rightly so, that the P-3 Orion does not have in-air refueling 
capacity, but does have the range to carry out the presumed 
mission. We regret the error. However, this does not alter our 
depiction of the ongoing struggle between the U.S. and Bin Laden.
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