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U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to (r)



Subject: Re: U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar


Well informed sources in Washington, DC consider this report to be
rubbish.  Hall is one of the more than 500 Congressional voices, is not
particularly engaged on the Burma issue, and there is no reason to believe
that his "one man show" in any way reflects a change of policy in DC.

This is a case of analysis worth about as much as you pay for it, which is
nothing.

LD

On Fri, 22 Jan 1999, Burma Centrum Nederland wrote:

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> Time magazine, January 25, page 48 
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> 
> Global Intelligence Update 
> Red Alert 
> January 22, 1999
> U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
> Summary
> U.S. Representative Tony Hall, following a visit to Myanmar, said 
> that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League 
> for Democracy (NLD), should not be able to veto humanitarian aid 
> to Myanmar. Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, made the statement in 
> Thailand on January 17 after his visit to Myanmar where he met 
> separately with both the ruling State Peace and Development 
> Council (SPDC) secretary general Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt 
> and Suu Kyi. Hall's statements, which marginalizes Suu Kyi's role 
> in influencing Myanmar's international relations, signal a United 
> States foreign policy initiative to avoid further conflict in the 
> region. In Myanmar, it would appear that, at least for now, the 
> U.S. is supporting stability over democracy.
> Analysis
> U.S. Representative Tony Hall visited Myanmar from January 11-14, 
> and met with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition 
> National League for Democracy (NLD), and Lieutenant General Khin 
> Nyunt, secretary general of the ruling State Peace and 
> Development Council (SPDC). Following the visit, Hall spoke in 
> Bangkok, where he called for increased worldwide humanitarian aid 
> to Myanmar. Hall also spoke of his meetings with Suu Kyi and Khin 
> Nyunt. He said Suu Kyi's opposition to foreign aid to Myanmar, 

> which she says is just serving to prop up the military junta, 
> should not stop NGOs and other humanitarian aid suppliers from 
> operating in Myanmar. He further said that Khin Nyunt had assured 
> him that the SPDC was dealing gently with the opposition. Hall's 
> comments seem to indicate a shift in U.S. policy. The U.S., while 
> not actually endorsing the SPDC, is backing further away from Suu 
> Kyi and the NLD. While this seems contrary to U.S. foreign policy 
> elsewhere, a closer examination reveals the overriding reason for 
> the shift, a desire for stability in the area.
> During the past year, tension between the NLD and the SPDC has 
> been heating up. The SPDC has charged that the NLD is closely 
> tied to ethnic rebels. Hundreds of NLD members in the past few 
> 
> months have resigned, having been pressured to do so by the 
> ruling junta. In response, the NLD has filed suit against the 
> SPDC for having allegedly coerced its members to resign. Hall's 
> visit to Myanmar is a second attempt by the U.S. to broker 
> negotiations between the two parties. It comes just a few months 
> after a failed U.S.-backed UN initiative to settle the dispute 
> between the SPDC and the NLD in Myanmar by offering World Bank 
> funding in exchange for talks between the two groups. The 
> initiative was rejected soundly by Suu Kyi, who opposes all forms 
> of foreign aid to Myanmar until the SPDC hands over power to the 
> NLD.
> Well known for his support of humanitarian aid and human rights, 
> Representative Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, favors such 
> initiatives in such troubled countries as Sudan, North Korea, and 
> Indonesia. During the last year, he has visited both Sudan and 
> North Korea to promote humanitarian aid and constructive 
> engagement. Hall is also close to President Bill Clinton, 
> spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining 
> him at a Washington D.C. soup kitchen in the President's first 
> public appearance after his impeachment in December 1998. His 
> past pro-human rights and humanitarian record make Hall a prime 
> tool for the U.S. to announce such a startling change in policy.
> Before going to Myanmar, Hall was already giving ground to the 
> SPDC, saying, "We will be talking not only about human rights, 
> but I also want to give the government of Burma a chance to talk 
> about their concerns." He also downplayed the effectiveness of 
> sanctions in dealing with non-democratic regimes, claiming that 
> sanctions almost always end up hurting the people they are trying 
> to protect. Of his meeting with Khin Nyunt, Hall quoted the 
> general as saying, "We are gentle and lenient with the 
> opposition."
> Hall had fewer kind words describing his meeting with Suu Kyi. He 
> said her isolation had caused her to be out of touch with the 
> real problems facing Myanmar. In reference to her call for all 
> humanitarian aid agencies to deal with the NLD instead of the 
> SPDC, he indicated that her demand had caused many NGOs to leave 
> the country rather that get mired in political turmoil. 
> Hall remarked that Suu Kyi should not have control over aid. He 

> said, "I would not say that she should have veto power at all, 
> because once you start to do that and you start to have a 
> precedent then you are going to have problems in other countries 
> and that precedent should not be started in Burma."
> While it may seem surprising that the U.S. would be supporting 
> the military junta in Myanmar over the oppressed, democratically 
> elected opposition party, democracy is not the only issue on the 
> table. There are hotspots and potential conflicts flaring up 
> throughout Asia. China and the Philippines, North Korea, 
> Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand are just a few. The 
> U.S. is already overextended militarily around the world, and has 
> been dialing back its involvement in Asian disputes. It does not 
> want to see the situation in Myanmar get worse. Geographically, 
> Myanmar controls the entrance to the Andaman Sea, at the mouth of 
> 
> the Straits of Malacca. Myanmar also shares long borders with 
> Thailand, China, and the India. It is the buffer between South 
> Asia and the Indian subcontinent. As the back door to Asia, it 
> must remain, if not an ally of the U.S., then at least a stable 
> nation.
> It is interesting to contrast this with the U.S. policy toward 
> Malaysia, where the U.S. backing of the reform movement is not 
> politically but rather economically motivated. With Malaysia 
> trying to lead South Asia on an economic path contrary to U.S. 
> views, Vice President Al Gore stepped in and added fuel to the 
> reformasi fire. Myanmar, on the other hand, has little economic 
> significance for the U.S., and the current regime would never let 
> the U.S. use its country as a rear entrance into China, 
> nevertheless it can serve as a buffer between nations deemed more 
> important to U.S. interests.
> The U.S. has looked at the situation in Myanmar and has seen the 
> regime rapidly dismantle the NLD. With the possible deportation 
> of Suu Kyi not far away, the U.S. must make a move. In the past, 
> the U.S. offered moral condemnation of the junta with little more 
> than sanctions to reinforce its position. The U.S. realizes that 
> it cannot handle - let alone produce - any more destabilizing 
> factors in the region at this time, and with its confidence in 
> Suu Kyi waning, it has now made this overture to the SPDC. Should 
> Myanmar decide to deport Suu Kyi, the U.S. would quickly offer 
> her asylum; but for now, we believe that the U.S. will back off 
> of Myanmar, so long as the country remains relatively stable.
> 
> Note
> Following yesterday's report, a number of our readers noted, and 
> rightly so, that the P-3 Orion does not have in-air refueling 
> capacity, but does have the range to carry out the presumed 
> mission. We regret the error. However, this does not alter our 
> depiction of the ongoing struggle between the U.S. and Bin Laden.
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