CHOP-STICKS AND CARROTS? (r)

[darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx]

Dear Readers,


Larry Dohrs already shot down the Red Alert in his message of 23 January:

"Well informed sources in Washington, DC consider this report to be
rubbish.  Hall is one of the more than 500 Congressional voices, is not
particularly engaged on the Burma issue, and there is no reason to believe
that his "one man show" in any way reflects a change of policy in DC.

"This is a case of analysis worth about as much as you pay for it, which is
nothing.

LD"

However, I couldn't resist the chop-sticks, carrots and soup kitchens. 

DA

***********************8

CHOP-STICKS AND CARROTS: IS THE US TURNING TO SOUP-KITCHEN DIPLOMACY? 

A "Global Intelligence Update Red Alert" of 22 January 1999, produced by an
Austin Texas company called STRATFOR INC, was posted a few days ago on
several Burma
lists as "U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in
Myanmar" and "United States/Myanmar". This "Red Alert", concerning U.S.
Representative Tony Hall's visit to Burma of 11-14 January, states that:

"Hall's statements, which marginalizes (sic) Suu Kyi's role in influencing
Myanmar's international relations, signal a United States foreign policy
initiative to avoid further conflict in the region. In Myanmar, it would
appear that, at least for now, the U.S. is supporting stability over
democracy".

The reporting of Hall's activities and statements seems accurate, but the
assumption made in the "analysis" that he represents US Government thinking
is, however, not shared by the US Government. In fact, Representative
Hall's statements, not only on Burma, but also North Korea, Sudan etc.
depart substantially from USG policy and have made him something of an
embarrassment to Washington. 

To substantiate its view of Tony Hall as someone of influence in US foreign
policy, the "Red Alert" reveals that he "is also close to President Bill
Clinton, spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining
him at a Washington D.C. soup kitchen..."  

However, such intimacy with the President does not necessarily imply weight
with the US foreign policy Establishment, in the Administration or in the
Congress.
As one very senior Hill staffer said about Hall: "he is bloated with
decency."  he 

is known as humanitarian, but lacking in political acumen...Because of the
North Korea 
debacle on aid, his Burma trip may actually shore up Congressional support
for democracy... people get disconcerted about his chats with dictators at
the expense of USG policy"

On Burma, Rep. Hall admitted in his Washington roundtable of 21 January
that he does not see the Congress going down the path of removing sanctions
unless/until there were political reforms in Burma. He also said that the
notion of 
carrots and sticks as outlined in the UN/World Bank initiative would have
to be tied to conditionality (i.e. political reform).