Mixed motives seen in Japan-Myanmar

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Subject: Mixed motives seen in Japan-Myanmar talks

ANALYSIS-Mixed motives seen in Japan-Myanmar talks
04:30 a.m. Jan 29, 1999 Eastern
By Elaine Lies

TOKYO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - A visit by a top Myanmar military official at the
invitation of Japan's Foreign Ministry may be the first step of a diplomatic
dance Japan hopes will help open Myanmar, long shunned for its human rights
record, to the world.

During the 10-day visit by Brigadier General Kyaw Win, which ended on
Thursday, the Japanese government pressed for democratisation within
Myanmar, officials said.

Win, deputy chief of strategic studies at Myanmar's Defence Ministry, was
given a blunt ultimatum: no democratisation, no aid, said one political
commentator involved with the visit.

``Japan, like the United States, is concerned about human rights,'' said the
commentator, who declined to be identified. ``But it feels that just
slapping on sanctions, and only criticising things, is not going to get
anywhere.''

An official at the Myanmar embassy termed the visit a success.

``It was very fruitful in enhanced friendship and understanding between our
two countries,'' he said.

Japan called on Myanmar's military to increase dialogue with the National
League for Democracy (NLD), the opposition party led by Nobel Laureate Aung
San Suu Kyi, Foreign Ministry spokesman Sadaaki Numata said.

But some analysts said this altruistic action cloaked a mix of motives,
ranging from a desire to help a suffering fellow Asian nation to carving out
business chances for Japan.

``Privately, we'd like to do anything to help Myanmar. But with the military
government in power, our help could provide support for that government,''
said Yoichi Yokobori, a professor of international relations at Wayo Women's
University near Tokyo.

``The dilemma is, things are so bad that without help, people could
starve.''

Myanmar is classified by the United Nations as among the poorest nations in
the world.

Japan has long been viewed as soft towards Myanmar because, unlike the
United States and Europe, it favours a stance of ``constructive engagement''
instead of economic sanctions.

The United States has maintained sanctions against Myanmar since May 1997,
including a ban on new investment.


In contrast, Japan in 1998 gave a 2.5 billion yen ($22 million) loan in
March 1998 for safety projects at Yangon Airport, and 800 million yen for a
food production project.

On the business front, there has been at least symbolic investment in
Myanmar.

Last October, Suzuki Motor Corp said it was investing $10 million in a joint
venture with a Myanmar firm.

Around 100 Japanese firms had offices in Myanmar as of 1998, a Japanese
trade ministry official said. Total cumulative investment in the country
since 1995, when Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, has totalled around
$219 million.

He said an initial jump in investment has fallen off sharply.

``While there might be a small amount of political risk involved, the
biggest reason is that Myanmar's economy worsened due to the Asian economic
crisis, and also its entire infrastructure is so poor,'' the trade official
said.

Some recent Japanese visitors say the situation is so drastic that Myanmar's
second largest city, Mandalay, is often without electricity for most of the
day.

The lack of infrastructure, plus Myanmar's rich reserves of natural
resources such as oil and natural gas, translates into opportunity for
Japanese companies hit hard by the country's worst ever recession.

``Japanese companies are suffering, especially construction firms. So if
Myanmar needs to builds bridges and railroads and they can do it, it is a
big help to them (Japanese companies),'' said Yokobori.

``Businesses of course are not the Red Cross - they are looking for
chances.''

Japan strongly denies the suggestion that initiatives towards the
traditionally pro-Japan Myanmar might be part of its efforts to maintain
influence in Southeast Asia, where it jockeys for economic dominance with
China.

National independence hero Aung San, Suu Kyi's father, trained in Japan and
later collaborated with the Japanese military during World War Two in a move
to oust the British, although he later led an uprising against the Japanese.

Suu Kyi has also studied in Japan and while confined to her house by the
military authorities managed to write a year-long series of columns for a
major Japanese newspaper.

The dilemma for Japanese policy makers is that until Myanmar becomes more
democratic, little can be done out of fear of appearing to support the
military regime -- and risking criticism from overseas, always anathema to
Japan.

Myanmar activists in Japan slammed Japan's stance and kept up demonstrations
during the brigadier general's visit.

``If they are really calling for dialogue, why don't they invite someone
from the NLD to Japan? The military government does not represent our
country,'' said Ye Hput, chairman of the NLD's Japan chapter.

``If Japan is the leader of Asia, what are they doing smiling with the
military regime?''