The BurmaNet News: April 29, 1999

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The BurmaNet News: April 29, 1999 
Issue #1261

Noted in Passing: "I think the way in which the government has persecuted
the NLD has won us a lot of public sympathy. It's swings and roundabouts
and we in a sense break even because what we lose in the active strength of
our party we gain in public support.'' -Aung San Suu Kyi (see REUTERS:
INTERVIEW- SUU KYI SEES DEMOCRACY WITHIN 10 YEARS) 

HEADLINES:
==========
REUTERS: SUU KYI SEES DEMOCRACY WITHIN 10 YEARS 
SHAN: FIRST ROUND OF SALWEEN DAM SURVEY COMPLETED 
SOUTH-EAST ASIA RIVER NETWORK: SALWEEN DAM DETAILS  
SHAN: YAWDSERK DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN DRUG TRADE 
BKK POST: RENEGADES TAKE HEADMAN HOSTAGE 
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REUTERS: INTERVIEW-SUU KYI SEES DEMOCRACY WITHIN 10 YEARS
29 April, 1999 by David Brunnstrom

YANGON, April 29 (Reuters) - Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi,
who has battled military rule for more than a decade, says she does not
think it will take another 10 years to achieve democracy.

``The way is always forward. I don't think it will be another 10,'' she
told Reuters in an interview in Yangon on Wednesday.

"But I can only say that this is my opinion. I am not a prophet, I am not
an astrologer, and it's just my opinion that it won't take another 10 years.

``I think nobody could have predicted, for example, when negotiations could
have come about between the Palestinians and the Israelis, or between the
white government and the ANC,'' she said, referring to South Africa's
African National Congress.

``It just happens and sometimes it takes longer and sometimes it doesn't
take so long and it's only in retrospect that people say they knew this was
coming...one can never tell in politics, 24 hours can be a long time, or 24
years can be nothing.''

The 1991 Nobel Peace Laureate showed no loss of resolve despite the death a
month ago of her British husband Michael Aris, from whom she had been
separated by military restriction for all of the last three years and most
of the past 10.

She said her opinion of the government's refusal to grant him a visa to see
her a final time was a private matter.

``I won't discuss that, I won't tell you how I feel.''

A colleague in her National League for Democracy (NLD) said earlier she was
angered by the military stance but remained willing to enter a dialogue.

The military has long refused dialogue with Suu Kyi, its most formidable
opponent since it seized direct power in 1988 by bloodily crushing a
pro-democracy uprising.

``I do believe that in spite all of our difficulties we will end at the
negotiating table,'' Suu Kyi said.

``We've always kept the door open for dialogue and said we are ready for
give and take, provided it means giving and taking on both sides. Because
we get the distinct impression that the authorities see the NLD giving all
and (them) taking all.''


Asked if the NLD was willing as an inducement to offer a blanket amnesty
for officers responsible for the 1988 killings, she replied:

``We can always discuss this. I can't say now what the NLD is willing to
offer and is not willing to offer because I have not been authorised by the
NLD to say anything on the matter.''

Suu Kyi, who was held under house arrest 1989 until 1995, said several
hundred members of her party were now under detention, including more than
80 members of parliament elected at the country's last democratic polls in
1990.

The NLD won that election with an overwhelming vote but the ruling generals
have never allowed it to take power.

She said the party was banned from holding public rallies and she
``doubted'' she was able to travel outside Yangon after the authorities
blocked her last attempts to do so last year leading to long and highly
publicised roadside standoffs.

She said the party remained active despite the detentions and was
concentrating on its work in the countryside.

``I think the way in which the government has persecuted the NLD has won us
a lot of public sympathy. It's swings and roundabouts and we in a sense
break even because what we lose in the active strength of our party we gain
in public support.''

The NLD was pleased by its international support, but would like to see
more backing from the Association of South East Asian Nations, of which
Myanmar is a member.

She rejected government accusations that the NLD was to blame for Myanmar's
economic malaise because of the sanctions and boycotts it has urged.

"One of the things sanctions say is that economic conditions are not right
for investment. I don't think hard-headed businessmen have stayed away from
Burma because the NLD says you should not invest.

``I think the reason they have stayed away is that they have found out that
the climate is not right for investment and that climate is created by the
authorities.''

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SHAN HERALD AGENCY FOR NEWS: FIRST ROUND OF SALWEEN DAM SURVEY COMPLETED
28 April, 1999 


The companies carrying out a survey to build a dam on the Salween River in
southern Shan State completed their first round of field studies at the end
of March, according to a S.H.A.N. source that recently returned from Shan
State.

The site being surveyed is a gorge about 6 km north of Ta Sarng Bridge,
which links the roads between Mong Pan and Mong Ton townships, 90 miles
north of the Thai border. The surveying began on October 19 last year, and
ended on March 31 this year.

The surveyors, including Thai, Japanese and Burmese companies, have now
moved out of the area. The rock samples from the dam site were sent to the
Thai border at Nong Ook, northern Chiang Mai province, in a convoy of Burma
Army trucks on April 8. It is not known where the samples will be sent to
for testing.

The Thai companies involved include MDX Power Co., the main Thai
contractor, as well as AAM, which carried out the general survey, and GMT,
which drilled and collected samples of the rocks on both sides of the
Salween. The logging company Thai Sawat was also involved in transporting
personnel and equipment.


Apart from Thai companies, Japan's Electric Power Development Corporation,
and the Burmese Company Aye Chan Aye, were also involved.

During the surveying, security was provided by the Burma Army's No. 3
Tactical Command, comprising Battalions 65, 43 and 225. Surveying was
halted several times because of security alerts, owing to the presence of
the Shan States Army's 727th Brigade in the region.

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SOUTH-EAST ASIA RIVER NETWORK: SALWEEN DAM DETAILS 
April, 1999 

The following is a translation of a report issued by the South-East Asia
River Network on March 8, 1999 on plans to build the Salween Dam at Ta Sang
in Southern Shan State

(Note: In translation from Thai to English, some details may have become
unclear.)

Size and Type of Dam

The Ta Sang dam project is currently in the pre-feasibility study stage.
According to preliminary studies, the dam will be built on the Salween
River in the southern part of Shan State in Burma, near to Ta Sang, which
lies 370 km east of Taunggyi, and about 130 km from the BP-1 Thai-Burma
border crossing.

This project will be located somewhere between 12 km north of the Ta Sang
ferry crossing and 5 km south of the ferry crossing. This area is
mountainous and the river is narrow, passing through steep sided gorges.
The river bed consists of layers of sandstone and siltstone, suitable for
construction of either a concrete faced rock-fill dam (CRF dam), a roller
compacted concrete dam (RCC dam), a gravity dam, or an arch-gravity dam.
The type of dam built will depend on the land on either side of the site.
The electric power generator will be at the base of the dam.

The latest results of the survey show that the full supply level (FSL) will
be between 320-370 metres above sea-level. At each site there can be an
installed electricity production capacity of between 1,500-5,000 megawatts.
The sites have been chosen because of their access to roads from BP-1 and
the fact that they can send 500kV AC to join the Burmese grid and 500 kV DC
to Thailand.

This project will involve building another dam downriver to control the
water that is released from the turbines 16 hours a day, 6 days a week.

One cost of the project may involve having to move the bridge at Ta Sang up
to Kunhing on Highway 4.

>From the survey, the two most interesting plans are to build an RCC and
electric power generator at site 840, 6 kilometres north of Ta Sang, and at
site 725, 2 kilometres south of Ta Sang. However, there is still not
sufficient geological data to make a final decision.

One plan is to build a CFR at site 840, with an underground generator (this
kind of dam is very common in Japan.) The site and type of dam will depend
on the geological survey and drilling during the feasability study.

Level of water

The water level has been chosen at 350 meters above sea-level. The higher
the level, the more possibility for attracting investment. However, the
engineering survey, the social and environmental impact assessments and the
amount of water will all be factors affecting the chosen level.


The size of the generators

The assessment shows that the lowest energy generation may be between 2,500
to 4,000 megawatts. A quarter of the electricity produced will be sent to
Burma. The rest will be sent to Thailand.

If there are 6 turbines, each would produce 550 megawatts. (6x 550 = 3,300
megawatts.)

The cost and duration of the project

The CFR project at site 840 will cost 3,397 million US dollars, and take
about 6 years. The RCC dam at site 840 will cost about 3,076 million US$
and at site 725 will cost 3,316 million US$, and will take about 5 years.


The details about the respective dams can be summarised as follows:

							Project at 		Project at 
							site 840 			site 840    		Site 725
   
type of dam 				CFR dam 		RCC dam 		RCC dam

site 						6 km north 		6 km north 		2 km south
							of Ta Sang  		of Ta San   		of Ta Sang

size of catchment 							207,000 km2
area

average flow rate       						2,583 cm3/sec

Full Supply Level 							350 m above sea level

max. reservoir surface       					660 km2
area

reservoir highest storage 					36,100 km3
volume

highest live storage volume 					14,200 km3

max. height of dam 			188 m 			193 m 			190 m

dam crest length 			768 m 			783 m 			955 m

rate of water flow 							430.5 cm3/sec
into turbines

head of turbines 			142 m 			145 m 			147 m


installed capacity 			3,327 			3,399 			3,434
including all 6 
turbines (megawatts)

electricity produced 		16,076 			16,136 			16,307
per year at upper dam
(gigawatts/hr)

electricity produced 		6,930 			7,923 			8,001
per year at lower dam
(gigawatts/hr)

total electricity produced   	23,005 			24,059 			24,308
per year (gw/hr)

cost (million US$) 			3,397 			3,075 			3,316

length of time to build  		6 yrs 			5 yrs 			5 yrs


Note: The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand has been contacting
academics in Thailand to conduct an EIA for the project.

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SHAN HERALD AGENCY FOR NEWS: YAWDSERK DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN THE DRUG TRADE
27 April, 1999 

Yawdserk, Commander of the Shan States Army, has turned down allegations
made by the United States Government of being involved in "the heroin
and/or amphetamine trade".

The following is an official statement released by the SSA's "Public
Relations Department". There is no date mentioned, but S.H.A.N. believes
its is quite recent.

N.B. The International Narcotic Control Strategy Report (1998), released by
the Bureau for International and Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, US
Department of State in February 1999 reads: "Among the top leaders of those
ethic groups believed by the USG to be involved in the heroin and/or
amphetamine trade are: Sai Lin (Lin Ming Xian) of the Eastern Shan State
Army (ESSA) Yang Maoliang, Peng Jiasheng and Liu Guoshi of the MNDAA; Pao
Yuqiang, Li Zuru, and Wei Xuekang of the United Wa State Army; Mahtu Naw of
the Kachin Defense Army (KDA); Mong Sa La of the Mong Ko Defense Army
(MDA); and Yawd Serk of the Shan United Revolutionary Army (SURA), which
was formerly part of drug lord Chang Qifu's Mong Tai Army.

-Shan Herald Agency for News.

Background to Colonel Yawd Serk's letter to the US authorities.

In the 1997 and 1998 US Government International Narcotics Control Strategy
Reports, Colonel Yawd Serk of the reorganized Shan States Army (SSA) has
been accused of being "Among the top leaders of those ethnic group believed
by the USG to be involved in the heroin and/or amphetamine trade" (p.5 of
the report). There are no State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)
officials mentioned as being involved in the heroin and/or amphetamine trade.


According to Colonel Yawd Serk, he has invited foreign government and drug
control agency officials to talk to him about the accusation and the
situation. However none have so far met with him. He would like the US
government and other governments to explain why he is on this list and to
talk to his representatives about the situation in the Shan States directly.

He also claims that he has destroyed 9 heroin and amphetamines refineries
in his area and has expelled another 2 heroin and amphetamine refineries
from his area of control. Two of these burnings have been reported and
witnessed by international press since November last year.

His letter reads as follows:


A Statement to the U.S. Government and All Countries Re: International
Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 1998

1. In the 1998 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, the USG
lists the top leaders of ethnic groups it believes to be involved in the
heroin and/or amphetamine trade I would like to ask why my name was
included on this list. Based upon what evidence is my name included? Why do
you put names of peoples such as myself who are not involved in the drug
trade but who are true patriots on the list? Why aren't the names of the
king drug traffickers like Lo Hsing Han and Khun Sa, who are controlled by
the SPDC, included on the list? I believe that only the SPDC could be
responsible for putting my name on the list.

2. I am patriotic and I have been in the army since I was 17 years old. I
joined the army and served under Sao Korn Zerng, who established the Shan
United Revolutionary Army (SURA) in order to unify the Shan people. When
Sao Korn Zerng and Khun Sa joined forces, I was just 27 years old. Since I
was in the army, I never knew about drug trafficking until Khun Sa
surrendered to the SPDC in 1995. My aim in joining the army was to gain
independence for my country. My purpose is not to trade for my personal
gain, and I will not surrender to the SPDC as Khun Sa did. If I wanted to
trade in drugs, I could surrender to the SPDC and live happily in the city.
Why do have to live, suffer, and starve in the forest and go to battle? It
is because the methods Khun Sa used were not good. I have changed these
methods and principles. My fifth principle is to eliminate the drug trade.
In our struggle for an independent Shan States, the Shan States Army (SSA)
does not want to be involved in drug trafficking. That is why we have
destroyed and burned drugs and blocked the drug trade routes. Two years
ago, we [{meaning} - the three Shan armed groups, Editor] were reorganized
as the SSA, but the USG did not learn about the real situation before
putting my name on the list of leading drug traders. I am very dismayed.

3. When I formed the new army, I didn't have much money to establish a new
army, let alone trade in drugs. I do not have a house to live in, I don't
have a car to use, and I don't have money to give to my family. It is
difficult to support even myself. I am leading my forces now not because I
have money, but because the SPDC violates, rapes, and tortures the Shan
people. This is why the Shan people have united and taken up arms. I must
depend on the financial and moral support of the Shan people. If I wanted
to be involved in the drug trade, why would I try to eradicate it? I could
contact and tax the drug dealers and get money that way. But I don't want
to do this illegal business which is against international law.


4. I would like to invite you to come learn about the Shan people, about
myself, and how we all live, suffer, and starve. Are we really drug
traders? If you really want the drug trade to be eradicated, please don't
rely only on other people's words. You have to come and learn where the
root of the drug trade lies and help the people who are its victims.

5. The Burmese, Kachin, Chin and Shan joined and established a Union. All
the States joined and gained independence from British in 1948. Meetings
were held to establish the new Union, and if the Shan had not been
included, there could not have been a complete Union. An agreement to
establish the Union was signed in Panglong, Shan States. After establishing
the Union, the Burmese broke their part of the agreement and took power.
Then they sent their armed troops into every state. That is why the Burmese
now use the army to control everything. All members of the international
community should listen not only to the SPDC, but should also learn about
and listen to the Shan people. Burmans and Shans have lived apart, but we
are equal, and should be treated as equals. It you talk about the Union of
Burma, you must look at the Panglong Agreement. The Union was established
in Panglong, not in Rangoon.

Colonel Yawd Serk Commander in Chief, Shan States Army

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BANGKOK POST: PRO RANGOON REBELS TAKE HEADMAN HOSTAGE
28 April, 1999 

Tak-Pro-Rangoon Karen rebels yesterday freed an assistant village headman
whom they kidnapped from Mae Sot on Sunday night, but held a village chief
hostage instead after half of the ransom money was paid.

Maung Pe Pansithong, assistant head of Ban So Khlo in tambon Mae Song, was
freed after Lator Ratamnuay, the headman, crossed into Burma to pay half of
the 200,000-baht ransom to the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army.

After releasing Maung Pe, the renegades held Mr Lator and promised to
release him after another 100,000 baht was paid.

Col Chayuti Boonparn, commander of the Fourth Infantry Regiment Task Force,
said the kidnap was an act of revenge as Maung Pe's son, Anuwat Pansithong,
had refused to pay money to Tu Li, a renegade, for the rent of an elephant
four years ago.

Mr Anuwat had reportedly sold the elephant for 150,000 baht.

As Mr Anuwat was not in the house when the kidnap took place, Tu Li's band
took his father across the border.

A team of Tha Song Yang police and Border Patrol Police were put on full
alert at the opposite the renegade base.
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