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MORE AND MORE, THE PEOPLE GET THEIR



Subject: MORE AND MORE, THE PEOPLE GET THEIR SAY

MORE AND MORE, THE PEOPLE GET THEIR SAY
Democracy in Asia will become increasingly deep-rooted
By Anastasia Stanmeyer

Asiaweek, August 20-27, 1999

ANCIENT ATHENS HAD THE world's first democracy. Everybody had a vote.
Except women, slaves, beggars and people below 30. Clearly, the Greek model
could use some fixes. The same goes for modern-day Asia, many of whose
nations are still a long way from establishing genuinely democratic
cultures. Democracy gives people not only the right to vote, but also
political and civil rights to fulfill their needs. It allows rich and poor,
weak and strong, equal priority and justice.

By those yardsticks, will Asia become truly, deeply democratic? Not in the
next decade or two, say political pundits. Take a look. India's democracy
is vigorous and rambunctious, but also extremely volatile. It has produced
three governments in three years, as well as one of Asia's more corrupt
societies. The Philippines and Thailand still must deal with military and
land-owning interests that keep many people poor. Singapore and Malaysia
have the form, but not the essence, of democracy. Like Japan, they have
returned the same parties to power virtually uninterrupted since
Independence, and one key reason is that the opposition has been kept weak.
Indonesia? It has taken a baby step toward rule of the people. Myanmar
hasn't even begun to crawl. Nor is Cambodia much better off. There, a
virulent civil war and Khmer Rouge savagery have badly eroded the political
and economic institutions "without which one cannot even begin to talk of
democracy," notes Joel Rocamora of Manila's Institute for Popular Democracy.

Even so, indications are that democracy will ultimately bloom in Asia. The
region has taken great strides toward liberalization in recent decades, and
the pace is likely to quicken in the new millennium. Despite early Greek
theorizing, only in the 20th century has democracy come to be considered
the "normal" form of government, argued Nobel laureate and economist
Amartya Sen at a World Bank conference on democracy in Seoul earlier this
year. Suffrage became universal just this century, as women in newly
independent Asian countries like India, the Philippines and Malaysia got
the vote.

Some experts believe that one person, one vote will spread even to China,
spurred by economic progress. The communist nation will become a
representative democracy around 2015, predicted Henry Rowen of Stanford
University's Hoover Institute. Citing Rowen's theory, former Philippine
presidential security adviser Jose Almonte has said that Beijing's efforts
to build a rule of law as the basis for doing business, and the erosion of
its control of information organs, are crucial changes spurring political
transformation. "That the state still penalizes individual dissent so
heavily seems a sign of how shaky the foundations of central control have
become," Almonte adds. Other analysts disagree. They believe that while
Beijing will allow the Chinese more freedoms, it will always counter
threats to stability.

The prognosis for Indonesia is a bit clearer and more positive, especially
after the country's June 7 polls. As a democratic exercise, the elections
were a small, if historic, step. But the new government is under great
pressure to install liberal institutions. Megawati Sukarnoputri's
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle finished first with 34% of the
votes, though it must work with other parties to form a coalition
government. The new president is supposed to be chosen in November, and
Muslim parties have major reservations about a woman leader. But the real
test -and the key to democracy's future in Indonesia - is how well the new
government can deliver a better standard of living.

In Malaysia, the government of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is more
powerful than that of President B.J. Habibie in Indonesia. "Although more
of a mess, Indonesia is now much more democratic," argues Rocamora. The
sacking and jailing of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim for abuse of
power has raised doubts about political freedom in Malaysia. The reformasi
movement that has surged with Anwar's tribulations could herald a livelier
democracy. And the upcoming general election could provide pointers to the
prospects for liberalization. However the polls go, once Mahathir leaves,
his successors will have a harder time keeping the lid on reform.

For Thailand and the Philippines, the challenge isn't in maintaining formal
democracies, but freeing them from elitist control. In the Philippines, the
ruling powers are able to exert pressure on the mass media and maybe
rewrite the Constitution to serve their own ends. Thailand has moved beyond
its military regime with tight control over the provinces, to a democracy
giving them greater autonomy. Yet the provinces are still run by corrupt
warlords wielding much economic power. Thailand's constitutional reforms
are laudable, but its democratic paradoxes will not be removed until Thai
society becomes more egalitarian and its wealth is more evenly distributed.
That is not likely to happen anytime soon.

So what is spurring democracy in Asia? Global trends aside, it's the
economic crisis. U.S. political scientist Francis Fukuyama believes that
the region is being drawn into convergence with Western liberalism because
of economic turmoil. Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last
Man, a seminal work on democracy's triumph after the Cold War, argued at
the Seoul conference that the Crisis "has led to the unconditional defeat
of the Japanese economic model of state-led development." It has also cast
doubts on the growth-boosting credentials of Asian authoritarianism - long
its main claim to legitimacy.

It is a sobering lesson for countries that sacrificed democratic principles
in the pursuit of development. For others, the chances for political
freedom have increased as they have become wealthier. According to Pei
Minxin, a China analyst and former Princeton University professor, rising
affluence tends to make countries remain free longer. So while Thailand's
democracy may be immature, at least it is there to stay, Pei believes. With
a per-capita income of $6,000 in purchasing-power parity, Thailand is
unlikely to see its democracy reversed. (PPP provides a more comparable
measure of wealth.) By the same calculation, the Philippines, with a
per-capita PPP of $2,000-$3,000, is ensured democracy for another 26 years,
while Cambodia, with $1,000, can hope for at least eight years.

Poverty alleviation has become the buzzword of liberal politics. Leading
the movement are non-government organizations, or NGOs - local or foreign
groups offering humanitarian aid or empowering individuals. Their numbers
are growing, and their key role in democratic development has only recently
been recognized. They're clenching fists for women's rights, battling big
business to ban logging, and teaching AIDS awareness to migrant workers.
Over the next decade and beyond, the relationship between government and
civil society will continue along current trends. Throughout Asia,
governments are ceding power to the private sector, including NGOs,
sometimes by choice, often by necessity, states Peter Geithner of the
Asia-Pacific Philanthropic Consortium. Government's declining role is
opening up space for both business and the non-profit sector to expand. The
market, not the government, is seen as the engine of development.

Most important is the prospect of pulling the government's sticky fingers
out of certain pies, as that would diminish the proclivity for corruption.
In the Philippines, for example, the opening up of major sectors such as
banking and telecommunications has reduced the scope for graft. If
democratic principles had been followed in Indonesia, cronyism may not have
taken such a deeply rooted and menacing hold. And if India's government had
kept its nose out of business and trade, petty corruption may not have so
blighted that country's democracy. But there is hope. More public
participation should heighten Asia's sense of the common good and
democratic justice. And greater economic rewards should make it all the
more worthwhile.

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