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9.9.99: Burma?s students set a magical date for uprising

The Asian Age: August 18,1999

Bangkok: Burma?s dissidents in exile have picked September 9, 1999 for a
repeat of
a "people power" uprising 11 years ago that shook the foundations of
authoritarian
rule but was ultimately crushed at the cost of thousands of lives. Their
call to arms
on the so-called "four nines day" looks like a triumph of hope over long
and bitter
experience.

The Burma military?s whole raison d?etre since it seized direct power on
September
18, 1988, has been to prevent a return to "anarchy" it says ruled that
year, when
millions took to the streets to demand an end to decades of authoritarian
rule. It
crushed the revolt with bullets and bayonets and has since detained
thousands of
dissidents, shut colleges and universities, ignored an election result and
endured
consequent pariah status overseas rather than surrender power.
Historians say the trigger for the 1988 uprising was a call by underground
students
for a general strike that August 8 ? the so-called "four eights day" ? via
a report
carried by the British Broadcasting Corporation. A similar call has again been
carried in recent weeks by foreign radio stations many in the country rely
on for
independent news beyond the tightly controlled state media.

Diplomats, dissidents and other Burma watchers say the message has once again
hit home and caught the popular imagination, but the military is far better
prepared
this time. In the past decade it has not only doubled the size of the armed
forces to
an estimated 450,000 personnel, but greatly increased the pervasive
surveillance
activity of its intelligence arm ? the Directorate of Defence Services
Intelligence.
This has involved infiltration of dissident groups and sophisticated
monitoring of
phone and e-mail links, analysts say. "In 1988, the government was
surprised and
that will never happen again," said a diplomat in the Burmese capital Rangoon.

"The government has got pretty good links into all underground groups and
anti-government groups both here and abroad. It has tabs on everything it
has to
have tabs on," he added.

Burma scholar and journalist Bertil Lintner, author of an acclaimed account
of the
1988 uprising, said he could envisage some minor scattered incidents of
protest
next month. "What is likely to happen is a few things here and there that
will be
crushed. I can?t see anything that remotely resembles the situation in
1988. I don?t
think the public will risk taking part in anything that will get them shot
unless they
are sure to win," he said.

"And they could only win if a considerable part of the Army decided to side
with
them and there?s no indication of that," he added. Even so, the government is
clearly concerned enough to take pre-emptive action, including detentions of
activists, a tightening of provincial security and even the broadcast of
loudspeaker
warnings to people not to join any protests. Dissident groups say more than
150
people have been detained for anti-government activity in the past two weeks.
(Reuter)