What Shall We Do Now?

[suantak@xxxxxx]

Oppressive Military and Sleepy
Expatriates

The Regime

Since 1962 students, monks, and the
public made several and periodic
protest - demonstrations with the hope
of attracting mass demonstrations that
would bring down the military
dictatorship. Every time the military
had cracked down the peaceful uprisings
by shooting into the crowd and killing
several people. They arrested hundreds
and hundreds of people.  These killings
and the arrests had scared the people.
Finally in 1988, although the military
attempted to break down the
demonstrations by brutally killing many
people, the protest demonstrations
spread and the masses succeeded in
bringing down the BSSP regime.

Because of this, the ruling military
watch carefully any movement that might
lead to mass movements and stamped down
the movements before it spread to a
wider audiences.  Peaceful
demonstrations such as the 1988 would be
killed before it spread to the mass.
That is why demonstrations were met with
severe brutality and the organizers were
arrested and given long-term jail
sentences.  For example as a warning to
others Min Ko Naing, a leader of the
1988 demonstration is in an isolated
jail cell since he was arrested in 1989.
Similarly Daw Aung San Suu Kyi?s
movement of non-violent opposition and
political arguments are ignored and
checked before it goes to the people.
The military is not going to allow any
protest, whether it is demonstration or
any other kind of opposition. The
closing down of colleges and
universities because of student
demonstration is a good example of how
the regime feared peaceful
demonstrations.

In 1958, the first time General Ne Win
took over the power, Burma had the same
per capita -income as Singapore.  Today
Singapore?s per capita income is about
150 times that of Burma?s.   From 1962
to 1988 the military dictatorship
survived on the money that it borrowed
from the World Bank and the IMF totaling
to about six billion US Dollars and
every year Japan and West Germany
supported the military dictatorship with
about two to three million US Dollars
each, each year.  The USA was giving
Burma technical help for opium
eradication amounting to about ten to
fifteen million US Dollars each year to
the military.

After the military killed over ten
thousand peaceful demonstrators in 1988,
the World Bank, IMF, Asian development
Bank, Germany, Japan, and the USA
stopped their support of the regime.
During the last ten years the regime
survived by selling out, cheaply, teak
and hardwood, fishing, and oil and gas
exploration concessions. Quickly the
money received from these undertakings
died out.  Then the military opened up
the economy for foreign investments and
free enterprises so that the regime
could get fees for  licenses from
foreign companies to operate in Burma.
The money the regime earned from all the
new trade policies was not enough to
finance the military build-up of the
army to a 400,000 strong force.  As a
final and desperate move the regime open
the tourist industries by building many
hotels in Burma and by declaring 1996 as
?Visit Myanmar Year?.  But the tourist
did not come because of the regime?s
human right abuses.
The majority of foreign investors left:
some because they were not making
profits due to the bribes they had to
pay to military officials, some because
they were pressured at home because
their trade with a human rights abuser
was not easily accepted by their
clients.

Today the economic situation is worst
than ever. There is not even enough rice
for the people. Inflation spiral
upwards, and kyats, the Burmese currency
has no more value.  Salaries even of
high-ranking officers of the government
do not buy even rice for a four person
household. The regime can no longer feed
its soldiers that the army has to
confiscate the best farmland from the
people and soldiers are cultivating
rice. The Union Bank is empty of foreign
currency. That is why they can no longer
afford to make phone calls to other
countries. So the people have to pay in
dollars. Every one in Burma including
the military brasses suffer from their
own mismanagement.  Sanda Win, the
daughter of the dictator Ne Win, was
said to complain that she is not able to
send her children to school in the US
but has to contend with Singapore for
her children?s schooling. The Myanmar
Ambassadors are paid less than the
minimum wages of the host countries in
Europe and North America.  The only
source of foreign exchange is from the
opium trade.  Burma is the number one
opium producing country in the world.
The military say they are not involve in
the drug trade but how can they not be
in control of the drug trade when they
can effectively control the much more
numerous opposition.  They may also say
that there are armed opposition but the
armed groups cannot survive without the
breading of the military.  Due to all of
these Burma has become one of the
poorest countries in the world and the
poorest in South East Asia.

The international community supported
the pro-democracy movement through
political institutions like the United
Nations, where the UN condemns the human
rights abuses of the regime and demands
the transfer of power to the winner of
the 1990 election.  However, the Burmese
military is not afraid of the UN because
the UN is only a Paper Tiger.  The
military power holders enjoy the
membership of the UN because they can
always boast being a member of the world
community. But the regime does not feel
obligated to obey the UN Resolutions
because the UN is in no position to
punish them. The only tiger of the
world, the United States and other
members of the UN Security Council will
not use force to change the situation in
Burma.  The regime knows that so long as
they can keep away video cameras and
news from Burma the situation in Burma
will not reach the eyes of the
international community, where the
people can demand their government to
act.  So far the military has
successfully isolate themselves.


The NLD, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and the
Armed Groups

Even with all these weaknesses of the
regime, the Burmese opposition is
incapable of taking advantage of their
position.  They look up to Daw Aung San
Suu Kyi to lead them to miracles but
there is little Daw Aung San Suu Kyi can
do alone because the military is so
clearly aware of what will happen if she
should be allowed to operate.  They
practically quiet her down and kept her
practically in her house as a prisoner.
Of course Ne Win is a prisoner in his
own house because it is too dangerous
for him to go out of his house. The
military targeted Aung San Suu Kyi and
the NLD because they have the
recognition of the international
community.  The only way to discredit
the NLD is to put as many member as
possible in jail or in their graves and
they are forced through intimidation to
distance from her and the party.


Expatriates

Among the members of the pro-democracy
movement, those who were students in
1988 are now in their thirties. They
cannot be students forever. The ABSDF?s
armed movement is not gaining ground.
It is helping the military regime?s
justification for their brutality
against the Burman in general. The NDF
has split, so as the DAB into armed and
cease-fire groups, and the NCUB has
practically no activities except the
drafting of the future Federal
Constitution of Burma. How can the NCUB
daft a federal constitution, when the
NCUB is not structured under federal
principles?  Every year we hear the
meeting of the members of the NCUB and
their statement condemning the military
regime. Actually nothing realistic come
out of the pro democratic groups.

Is the NCGUB doing anything? The NCGUB
worked hard to get the UN to condemn the
military regime for the human rights
abuses and the not handing over the
power to the winners of the 1990
election. They do not do anything or
trying to do anything new.  We know they
give speeches here and there.  The
speeches do not contain substantive
messages that could connect the people
inside Burma and the exiled government
or expatriate pro-democracy groups. They
do not appreciate suggestions and have
no suggestions of their own. They have
not carried out significant initiatives
within the Burmese dissident groups or
in the international communities.  They
do see such examples as the Ajotola
Khomeni?s movement from Paris against
the Shah as not interesting.  ?Who is
Khomeni??  After ten years of being the
exile government without any positive
achievement, should they not consider
retiring so that new and energetic
younger people can take over. They were
elected by the people. Do they have the
right to do nothing for the people?

Armed Groups

The armed resistance groups are
declining in strength, and their
territories have diminished. The Karen
National Union, who used to command 15
to 20 thousand men under arms a few
years ago is operating with three to
four thousand soldiers after the fall of
Manerplaw and the split between
Christian and Buddhist Karens. All of
the armed groups, the All Burma Students
Democratic Front, the Chin National
Front, the Shan State Army, and other
armed groups have a few hundred
soldiers, altogether they might have a
few thousand.  These armed groups are
far from challenging the Burmese
military.  However, their activities
give the Burmese military a lot of
legitimacy and justification for its
forced porter conscription, forced
labor, and their brutality against the
ethnic minorities.  The Burmese Army is
very brutal against the civilian
population because of the armed
resistance.  The question is: Do the
Karen, Chin, Shan, Karenni, Mon, Kachin,
Wa, etc expect the Burmese Army to be
nice to them after they took arms
against the military?  The human rights
abuses by the military are mainly the
result of the armed rebellion. The armed
groups must understand that the military
isolate Burma from outsiders because
they want to do whatever they like to
the people and say any thing they like
without giving foreigners to find the
truth.

The cease-fire groups have barely any
movement.  They are politically dead.
What they say and do is controlled by
the SPDC.

The opposition kept demanding for
dialogue, and other rational approaches.
The military is not ready to hand over
the power because they are not
threatened to do so.  They have the
power and they will sit there tight
until somebody forced them out. The
democratic opposition does not know how
to handle the situation. The strength of
the armed resistance movement had
diminished but remain the strongest
pillars of support for the military.

The Democratic Opposition

The democratic opposition has to examine
what they are doing. There are areas
where the democratic opposition must
draw a line.  The armed resistance
movements are armed dictatorships. If
democracy is the goal there could be no
opposition by means of violence.
Democracy must be obtained by democratic
means. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the
democratic opposition must address this
issue. The democratic opposition cannot
fight a military dictatorship by
promoting armed opposition. The
democratic opposition must find common
grounds with the military. There must be
common grounds between the military and
the opposition. To promote complete
peace may be a way to proceed. The
democratic opposition must use the
common ground to approach the Burmese
military.

Neighbors

On the other hand those who had
supported the military regime, mostly
the neighboring countries, are showing
signs of tiring their support for the
regime because the ?constructive
engagement? is not working.  What
happened to Indonesia clearly suggests
that the regime has not much future as
it is.


The SPDC

The regime is doing what it does best.
Pointing guns at the people and forcing
them to obey their orders. It has no
direction and no strategy. They want
only one thing, to stay in power. They
decided that dialogue is the end of
their existence. To stay in power they
decided to use brute force. They are
afraid of the gallows they might end up
if they lose the power. They are scared
and paranoid about losing power. Some of
their actions suggest they are stupid
but they are not.  They would rather
appear stupid than loose the power.

They enjoy the ability to acquire
material wealth. They would use all
their power to enrich themselves. To get
something done business people have to
depend on bribery.  Those who earn
officially two thousand Kyats a month
save up over two billion dollars and
have in cash several million dollars.
Though they successfully fill their own
pockets they failed to fill the state
treasury with foreign exchange. The
wealth that the military officers sought
never flow easily. The money they
expected from the sale of hardwood and
teak, fishing licenses, tourist
industry, and from the sale of gas to
Thailand is not coming as expected.

Today the military has only the proceeds
from illicit drugs manufactured from the
only Burma?s cash crop opium, as the
only source of income.  The 10% salary
tax, the regime charged from Myanmar
passport holders who worked in foreign
countries declined after the Asian
monetary crisis because Japan, Korea,
Malaysia, and Thailand sent back illegal
aliens as there are no jobs for their
own citizens.

The State Peace and Development Council
is bankrupt and it can not provide even
the basic necessities to its soldiers.
The Tatmadaw has difficulty even feeding
the soldiers. They forced the people to
give up their best agricultural lands
and forced the people to grow rice. Once
again the people can cry ?Forced Labor?.
Many soldiers are assigned to work in
the rice fields.  Once again it ventures
into a venue that it has no expertise.
This is going to fail like all the
projects the military undertook.  It is
understandable that one of the world?s
poorest countries can not support one of
the largest army of the world.  To feed,
cloth, housed, and armed four hundred
thousand soldiers is not an easy task.
There is a lot of dissension among the
members of the military from simple
soldiers to high-ranking officers.

Should the pro-democracy activists wait
until the army starves itself to death?
It is already more than ten years since
the people?s uprising in 1988 that
brought down the BSPP. It is terrible to
live in Burma as civilians because of
the ever rising of prices. There is an
unsustainable inflation rate for
government employees because their pay
remain pretty much the same for the last
ten years. Some salaries do not pay for
the transportation or bus fare from the
work place to home. High ranking
government employees have to depend on
their family members who earned money in
the black market or other activities.
Some government employees do not come to
the office every day and those who come
to the office cover for the ones absent.
Many government offices demand money for
doing anything, even to enter a
government office there is a fee to be
paid to peon, clerk or officer. A month?
s salary of a clerk do not buy a lunch
at one of the hotels. In addition civil
servants have to contribute money to all
kinds of government functions.
Celebrations are financed by forcefully
cutting off the salary of the civil
servants.  Civil servants are not
allowed to resign their jobs.   The
whole system in Burma is corrupt. Very
few people are doing well, those who
have connections with the military
brass.
The SPDC Sec. 1  Gen Khin Nyunt, Gen
Than Shwe, U Win Aung, and SPDC
officials are promising better times,
because they want to fool the world gain
some more enjoyable time for themselves.
They have been successful for the last
forty years.
The regime is in power today because the
opposition especially expatriates lack
the requisite for bringing down the
military regime.  They demanded
dialogue, and rational acts from the
regime. The regime did not come to power
with a rational act and they cannot and
should not be expected to give rational
consideration of the wish of the people.
They will listen only when they are
forced to listen to the overwhelming
opinion of the people.

Suggestions

Thus it is wrong to continue the armed
resistance movements. The movements are
just helping the military to keep itself
alert.  Although the military said that
it has stopped its arms build up, it has
over 400, 000 under arms and the
military cannot afford to keep such a
large army.  Without the armed
resistance movement the army has to be
trimmed down to a size that is
manageable.  Any country with a
proportionally large army is bound to be
poor.  Without armed rebellion the army
would have nothing to do, which will
force the army to be idle.  The
brutality of the soldiers was caused by
the danger they faced in the field and
the habit they were trained to be by
their officers, who had been in turn
trained to be brutal to the people.
These soldiers are nice and human when
they are with their families.  They are
brutal to the people of different
ethnicity, who are their enemies. They
have done so often these brutalities,
the brutality become a way of life  They
regard these actions as their duty.  The
armed resistance groups know they will
never succeed.  They do it because they
believe they have credibility when they
are armed and because it is their way of
life.

Non-cooperation and Mass Civil
Disobedience

Non- cooperation and civil disobedience
must be practice by the people. One way
is to boycott the government?s
facilities completely.  All civil
servants must resign their positions.
We know that their salaries cannot
support them. This is a form of forced
labor. They should stay home.  They
military cannot retaliate for simply
being at home.

The people must boycott celebrations
such as the New Year (Water festival )
or the Tasaunghmung (Light festival) and
stayed home.  Nobody should venture out
of their houses during these festivals
in protest against the government.

The expatriates have access to media
that reach the people inside in Burma.
They should initiate a program in which
all the citizens of Burma stay home on a
certain day.  The Chin had started that
in Thanthlang and spread to Haka and was
about to spread to Falam.  The regime
pleaded with the Chin to stop doing this
and allowed the celebration of the
Christian Centennial.  It is crucial to
initiate this kind of activities from
abroad.

The expatriates must support like minded
parties such as in Indonesia, East
Timor, the democracy movement in
Singapore, Malaysia, and China.  Had
anybody contacted  Miss Megawati
Sukarnopurti ?   She will probably be
the next president of Indonesia or a
very prominent leader. Have the
expatriates lost the chance?

Conclusion

I do not think the democracy movement is
going as it should be.  The above are my
thoughts and I know it is different from
the main stream thoughts. In my opinion
the democracy movement has to take a
different course because the existing
activities are not taking us anywhere.