NEWS - Anniversaries Spark New Atte (r)

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Subject: NEWS - Anniversaries Spark New Attempt at Uprising

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Anniversaries Spark New Attempt at Uprising

 BANGKOK, (Sep. 1) IPS - For decades, the number nine has been
considered
 the most auspicious of all numerals by the hated Burmese dictator
 General Newin and his coterie of proteges in the military junta. 
 
 But now, Burmese pro-democracy campaigners are hoping that they can
turn
 the magical date of 9-9-99 into one of national uprising against the
 military regime. 
 
 Though there is evidence that the anti-government campaign has gathered
 some momentum inside Burma, many analysts believe that they are not
 likely to have more than a symbolic impact on the country's harsh
 political realities. 
 
 What the campaign, whether successful or not, could spark off however
is
 a serious rethinking of strategy among pro-democracy groups frustrated
 all these years in their attempts to topple the military regime. 
 
 It was 11 years ago that Burma's pro-democracy movement first spilled
 into the streets as a nationwide uprising on Aug. 8, which has been
 commemorated since then as the 8-8-88 uprising. 
 
 Activists hope that a mix of the rising unpopularity of the Burmese
 regime, deteriorating social and economic conditions and sheer
 superstition will coax the Burmese people into repeating history -- but
 this time with a decisive victory for the people. 
 
 
 During the last uprising the Burmese military, though initially shaken
 and nearly toppled, used brutal firepower against unarmed protesters to
 keep itself. Thousands were killed and several thousands more fled into
 exile after the crackdown. 
 
 "Nobody can be certain about what the outcome will be but the 9-9-99
 campaign has certainly caught the imagination of students and the
 general population inside Burma," says Moe Thee Zun, a leader of the
All
 Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), one of the main dissident
 bodies calling for an uprising. 
 
 Dissident groups are hoping for a nationwide general strike against the
 regime along with mass demonstrations in major towns and cities on
Sept.
 9. 
 
 The groups argue that social and economic conditions inside Burma
cannot
 get any worse and given an active push the country's oppressed masses
 will spill over into the streets. 
 
 Apart from their already long list of political grievances against the
 government in recent years, the public has had to bear the brunt of
 Burma's crumbling economy. 
 
 Inflation is running at 40 percent with the price of rice -- Burma's
 staple diet -- jumping 60 percent every year. The Burmese regime is
 experimenting with liberalizing the economy, but foreign investment
 drying up and previous investors are leaving due to fear of
 international sanctions as well as the impact of the Asian economic
 crisis. 
 
 Among the activities by underground dissident activists inside Burma is
 the secret distribution of anti-government pamphlets calling for a
"9999
 uprising" and with slogans like "8888 was the beginning of the battle,
 9999 will be the end of it"; "We don't want military junta"; and "Let's
 revolt on 9999". 
 
 Dissident groups are also using the novel method of circulating
currency
 notes with writings of "9999" on them to bring the significance of the
 date to the attention of people. 
 
 According to the ABSDF, more than 120 people have been arrested so far
 by the Burmese regime for organizing activities related to the
campaign. 
 
 Students in Rangoon and other towns in Burma, it said, had held protest
 demonstrations during the past few weeks, including one at a school
 outside the capital city in the presence of Khin Win Shwe, the wife of
 Burma's powerful intelligence chief Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt. 
 
 The Burmese military has confirmed arrests of 32 people for instigating
 an uprising" but charges that the ABSDF's claims of public
 demonstrations taking place inside Burma are a "fabrication to attract
 media attention". 
 
 But reports from inside Burma indicate that the government is taking no
 chances and has beefed up security in schools, government offices and
 deployed police at key street corners in most towns and cities ahead of
 the 9-9-99 campaign date. 
 
 In a bid to appease government servants and army personnel the regime
is
 also reported to have given them a one-month salary and ration advance
 for the month of September. 
 
 Reports also say that some sections of the population have already
begun
 hoarding food and essential items ahead of the approaching campaign
date
 apprehending widespread disturbances. As a result, the prices of
various
 basic goods have gone up. 
 
 Though Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has not given a
 formal call to the National League for Democracy to join the 9-9-99
 campaign, she has lent it tacit support. 
 
 "This is not a campaign that we started but our policy has always been
 very clear on such things -- we will never disown any of our allies,
who
 have fought for democracy," Suu Kyi was quoted as saying by a dissident
 Burmese publication. 
 
 Despite all the preparations for an uprising and raised hopes among
 dissident groups, some Burma analysts point out that going by the
 experience of the past decade, the 9-9-99 movement could end up as a
 non-event. 
 
 "The military's grip on the country's institutions and its intelligence
 gathering apparatus has only strengthened during the nineties.
Repeating
 the 8-8-88 uprising is going to be extremely difficult if not
 impossible," says an Asian diplomat in Rangoon. 
 
 Within the pro-democracy camp itself not everyone is sure that the
 campaign, using traditional methods of pamphleteering and calls for
 street protests, will really be successful. 
 
 "We have to reinvent the Burmese pro-democracy campaign to make it more
 creative, imaginative and come up with genuinely revolutionary ideas to
 inspire the Burmese people," confesses a senior dissident leader. 
 
 He says the movement should try out new methods of protest in which the
 masses can participate easily and not expect people to come out on the
 streets every time, braving military bullets. 
 
 Some dissident activists point out that despite the regime's
willingness
 to use extreme violence against dissidents, given its unpopularity --
in
 and outside the country -- overthrowing the junta should have been much
 easier for any sophisticated political movement. 
 
 The fact that this has not happened, they say, indicates that either
the
 anti-junta movement lacks competence or has slipped into inertia and
 complacency. 
 
 The hope now is that even if the 9-9-99 campaign is unsuccessful, it
 could at least lead to the positive result of sparking off serious
 debate among activist groups on radically new strategies against the
 Burmese regime. >>