SCMP-Dissidents hail leaflet war be

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Subject: SCMP-Dissidents hail leaflet war before planned uprising

South China Morning Post
Thursday, September 9, 1999
BURMA

Dissidents hail leaflet war before planned uprising
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Rangoon and Bangkok

Exiled dissidents claimed victory yesterday on the eve of a planned uprising
against the military junta.
But diplomats in Rangoon said they did not expect much in the way of
protests today.

"We are very excited because of all the leaflets being given out, all the
people who are taking risks," general secretary of the Thailand-based All
Burma Students Democratic Front Aung Thu Nyein said.

"It is a victory because the authorities have been forced to respond to our
action."

Burma's military Government has tightened already intense security in
Rangoon and provincial towns and cities ahead of a planned campaign of civil
disobedience.

Dissidents hope to foment unrest today, "four nines" day, to mirror the
student uprising on August 8, 1988, which the military put down in an orgy
of bloodshed, killing thousands of citizens.

Planned action includes a general strike, civil disobedience and a boycott
of media controlled by the junta, which refuses to cede power to the
democratic opposition of rights leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The junta has warned it will mete out tough treatment to unruly dissidents
and "subversives".

The Thai army is also bracing for the possibility of unrest in neighbouring
Burma.

Thai officials in the northern province of Mae Hong Son have warned exiles
from Burma against staging anti-Rangoon protests on Thai soil, or they will
face arrest.

Security has been tightened on Thailand's western frontier in case any
fighting between Burmese forces and rebel ethnic armies spills over the
border.

Dissidents say hundreds of activists have been detained ahead of the planned
uprising, a claim the junta denies. Protesters also claim several monks were
detained and a curfew imposed in Mandalay after a rally was broken up on
Sunday.

The student front said leaflets were being handed out at military bases
urging soldiers to join them. Three junior officers had been arrested at a
base in Pakokku for debating the 9-9-99 issue, it added.

Rangoon sources said democracy leaflets had begun to appear on the streets
and in other states. But few expect today's events will match activists'
hopes for a successful uprising against decades of strict military rule.

"There is a general feeling of hope mixed with apathy and worry," one
diplomat in Rangoon said.

"There is a little bit of anxiety over possible demonstrations. It will not
be a time to walk about in the streets; shops will be closed."

Another foreign observer commented: "There may be some small groups in
'hit-and-run' demonstrations, but I don't think we will see anything
spectacular. I don't detect a general desire among people to be out there.
They are not saying: 'It's now or never'."

Sources said students may use "cat-and-mouse" tactics to frustrate security
efforts in the suburbs.

One analyst in Rangoon said the present situation differed from 1988, when
students exploited a major power vacuum left by the retirement of dictator
General Ne Win.

"We are now under a military government whose priority is security above
everything else," he said.