Indonesia, SPDC's Former Model Nati

[moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Subject: Indonesia, SPDC's Former Model Nation

Indonesia, SPDC's Former Model Nation
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By Julien Moe
11th September 1999

Asia dramatically changed  when economic hardships arose in the beginning of
the year 1999. The Burmese regime, getting lost on policies, had no clue
whose steps to follow. Indonesia ruled by Suharto used to be SPDC's model.
God knows who advised the members of the Burmese regime to follow
Indonesia's footsteps without any intelligence analysis about what  was
going to happen in the model country.. Suharto was ousted by popular
uprisings and the army wasn't behind him. It is acceptable to say that
Suharto did not have the generals in his pocket unlike Ne Win. Today Suharto
dare not go abroad for medical treatments. A government with no policy will
never get anywhere. The Burmese government is formed of the generals who are
mad about power  for two reasons. The first reason is they know what it is
like to be in power. The second reason is they have to protect their status
and wealth. 

Yet the army seems to be cautious in protecting itself by upgrading itself
with high tech military hardware from China, Russia, and Poland.
Professional trainings have been received from China and Israel. The army
believes that if NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi's party is systematically eliminated
by the junta, Aung San Suu Kyi will be left alone and she will no longer be
a threat to the regime because she will no longer have her supporters by her
side because many of  her supporters will be in jail and many forced to
resign. The junta also believes that one day she will run out of  her
tactics and even words to say. Today she has called for more sanctions on
the Burmese military junta and she knows these sanctions choke the junta
economically. There is also a controversy about where she should be in the
fight against this regime. Majority of the dissident  Burmese and observers
reckon that she should remain inside the country because whatever the junta
does to her and talks about her becomes an international incident. But some
observers think she should go out of the country to lobby around the world.
She could influence the international community with her charisma, eloquence
and intelligence. Yet  Delai Lama himself has not got too far as an exiled
leader of his country. The military brasshats themselves have attempted to
get her out of the country. If she leaves, the junta will not let her come
back to Burma again and her exodus will mean no more trouble from the Nobel
Peace Laureate. She has made the right decision to stay inside the country,
facing any threat and challenge she has experienced. Despite the fact that
her party is being eliminated  by the junta, she will still pose a
demanding threat to the Burmese regime.

In East Timor, killings instigated by the Indonesian army are  so evident
that the United States has suspended arms sales to Indonesia. China is
taking lessons from what is going on in Indonesia.Reports of continued
violence and bloodshed in East Timor have intensified calls for
international intervention.There are approximately 15,000 army troops in
East Timor, along with 8,000 police. Elements loyal to Suharto are
responsible for arming the pro-integration militias and continuing the
violence.  The UN has dispatched a five-member mission to Jakarta to press
the Indonesian government to bring East Timor under control or give
permission for a peacekeeping force to enter. While the world debates the
political ramifications of sending in an international force, it is equally
important to consider what such a force would face on the ground. The United
States may consider other options for military interventions. If the US
troops are in East Timor, the regime in Burma should well be prepared for
what is coming up next.