The outcast ("The Economist")

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The Economist 
November 6, 1999 , U.S. Edition 


The outcast 

 
   RACHEL GOLDWYN, a 28-year-old from Britain, was released from jail in
Myanmar on
November 1st after serving just two months of a seven-year sentence for
chaining herself to a lamp-post
in Yangon and singing a pro-democracy song. A victory for "quiet diplomacy"
said a British Foreign
Office spokesman. Perhaps, but a rare one against a brutal regime whose
intransigence is now making it
an outcast even among some of its South-East Asian neighbours. 

Three days before Miss Goldwyn was freed, Myanmar's Supreme Court had
dismissed a complaint
by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) that the military
government was harassing its
supporters. The NLD is led by Aung San Suu Kyi, whose long and peaceful
campaign for the
restoration of democracy has inspired many activists, including another
Briton, James Mawdsley, who
was jailed for 17 years in September, also for staging a protest. 

Nevertheless, there is a growing frustration that non-violent action is not
getting anywhere. This
manifested itself in October when five student exiles from Myanmar seized
their country's embassy in
Bangkok. Thai negotiators agreed to fly them to the border, where they
could escape into a rebel-held
area of Myanmar, in return for freeing their hostages. Though many Thais
reckon their government did
the right thing, the generals in Yangon were furious -- especially as the
gunmen were described by a
Thai minister as "student activists" fighting for democracy rather than
terrorists. In retaliation, the generals
banned Thai fishing boats from entering their waters and closed the long
land border between the two
countries. 

Thai officials are trying to patch up relations. They want to speed up the
resettlement in third countries of
some of the thousands of dissidents who have fled from Myanmar into
Thailand. Many live on the Thai
side of the border in refugee camps which the generals in Yangon consider
to be hotbeds of trouble.
Miss Goldwyn used to work in one of the camps. The students who seized the
Myanmar embassy
lived in one. 

Many of the student refugees are, however, refusing to register for
resettlement, and Thailand has said it
will not force them to leave. Lots of Thais are sympathetic to their cause
and do not think Thailand
should try to appease the regime in Myanmar. 

Thailand and the Philippines (see ) are now emerging as the most lively
democracies in South-East Asia,
and in the process becoming more outspoken in regional affairs. They look
like being joined by
Indonesia, whose new civilian government, formed after its first free
election in 44 years, contains many
former opposition leaders. Under ex-President Suharto, himself a general,
Indonesia was seen as a
model which the regime in Myanmar could use to enable it to hang on to
control. No more. On
November 4th, Indonesia's new president, Abdurrahman Wahid, said he hoped
to meet Myanmar's
opposition leader. "Personally, my sympathy goes to Suu Kyi," he said. This
could signal an end to the
policy of not criticising fellow members of the regional club, the
Association of South-East Asian
Nations. 

What effect any of this will have on Myanmar's rulers remains to be seen.
That the NLD got its case
heard in the Supreme Court could be considered progress of a sort: it is
the first time the court has
responded to NLD complaints since the junta seized power in 1988. The NLD
won Myanmar's last
election, in 1990, by a landslide, but the generals have ignored the result. 

Through a campaign of harassment and intimidation, the regime is trying to
wear down the NLD. It
seems to be having some success. Around 40 NLD members who should have
served in the new
parliament are being detained. The state-run media regularly exult in
publishing reports of NLD
supporters resigning from the party at stage-managed events. The generals
continue to claim they will
restore democracy when a new constitution has been drawn up. Many in the
opposition expect that will
happen only when the army is confident it has stamped on enough of its
opponents to ensure itself of
victory. 

Meanwhile, the regime continues to fend off claims of widespread brutality,
including the use of forced
labour. So far, even UN offers of a resumption of aid in return for the
junta agreeing to talk to the NLD
seem to have got nowhere. Miss Suu Kyi is concerned that opposition
frustration could provoke
trouble, but maintains "we don't want change to come about through
violence." She remains committed
to peaceful reform. So, even though everyone knows the Supreme Court will
throw it out again, she will
resubmit the complaint of harassment. 


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